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Expires:200305312100;;466612
FPUS51 KBTV 310801
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-312100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

.TODAY...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 65 TO 70.
LIGHT WIND. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN. LOW 50 TO 55. LIGHT WIND. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN. HIGH 55 TO 60. NORTH WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE 60S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 40 TO 45 AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
70S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGH IN THE MID
70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 310647
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

STORM SYS TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...TO THE SOUTH
OF SRN NEW ENG TONITE AND ON SUN...AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN NITE. SECONDARY TROF APPEARS TO ROTATE DOWN ACRS THE
FA ON MON/MON NITE.

H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND FOR MUCH OF TONITE...THEN
CAA FOR SUN AND ON MON/MON NITE...WITH WK WAA ON SUN NITE. LOW-LVL
MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND LATE ON SUN NITE.
LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY (BEST MSTR
APPEARS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THOUGH) AND LINGER INTO TONITE
AND FOR MUCH OF SUN. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...ON SUN AFTERNOON...AND ON MON AFTERNOON AND NITE. MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON MON. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE
ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND LINGER INTO TONITE AND FOR MUCH
OF SUN (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE ERN ZONES). SOME MID-LVL (AND LOW-LVL)
MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON MON/MON NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA APPEAR
TO BE AOB AN INCH TODAY...AROUND AN INCH TONITE...AROUND 0.75" ON
SUN...AND THEN 0.4-0.5" ON SUN NITE THRU MON NITE.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PCPN MOVING IN TO THE WEST OF THE FA
ATTM. ETA SHOWS CAPES TO BE AOB 200 J/KG ACRS THE FA TODAY. ANY
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE SFC LOW/UPR S/W ATTM...SO WILL
DISCOUNT SPC GEN TSTM OUTLOOK ACRS THE SRN FA FOR TODAY AND TONITE.
PCPN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND BECOME
STEADIER TOWARDS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS PCPN TO CONT ACRS
THE FA INTO EARLY ON SUN NITE. ETA/GFS QPF APPEARS TO BE BLO 1.5"
ACRS THE FA THRU THEN. THIS SHOULD BE BLO CURRENT FFG VALUES...SO NO
FFA ANTICIPATED ATTM. MAY ISSUE AN UPDATE TO THE GOING ESF AFTER ZFP
ISSUANCE TO INDICATE A DIMINISHED THREAT OF FLOODING ACRS THE FA.

CAPES TO BE AOB 600 J/KG ACRS THE FA ON MON...SO WILL TREND TOWARDS
SOME CONVECTION ACRS THE NRN FA FOR THEN...AND CHC POPS ON MON NITE
LOOK LIKE A GOOD IDEA AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING ZFP
BEYOND MON NITE FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY





FXUS61 KBTV 310048
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
845 PM EST FRI MAY 30 2003

...OLE FASHIONED NOR'EASTER FOR SAT NGT/SUN...BUT IT'S JUNE...

CRNT/NEAR TERM: ANY ERLR -SHRA ACTVTY HAS EXITED E INTO NH WITH M
CLDY SKIES N AND PTLY CLDY S. MAIN CLD SHIELD FM NXT SYSTEM STL ACRS
ERN GRT LAKES/WRN NY AND THAT WL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OVRNGT AS WE
AWAIT WELL UPSTREAM ENERGY ARD CHICAGO TO DIVE S OF FA BUT DVLPG A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW AND BROAD WAA/OVERRUNNING PATTERN.

CRNT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES OR UPDATED ZONES. HWVR...NO AFD
FM ERLR PKG SO WL ELABORATE A BIT ON UPCOMING SYSTEM BELOW.

SHORT TERM (SAT-MON): WTR VPR SHWS VIGOUROUS S/W DROPPING FM NRN
PLAINS INTO SW GRT LAKES REGION WITH A DECENT SFC REFLECTION AS WELL.
VARIOUS SVR/TORN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ACRS WRN GRT LAKES REGION AS
WINTER/SPRING-LIKE DYNAMIC FEATURES CLASH WITH LATE SPRING/SUMMER
TEMPS/HUMIDITY.

BROAD ULVL TROF REMAINS ACRS ERN CONUS WITH THE ABV MNTND VIGOUROUS
S/W DROPPING ACRS OH RVR VLY LATE TNGT/SAT INTO DECENT BAROCLINIC
ZONE. MEANWHILE...HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW WL BE DROPPING DOWN ACRS
QUEBEC HELPING CARVE NEW LW TROF ACRS ERN GRT LAKES AND NE CONUS SAT
NGT/SUN.

THIS DVLPS CLASSIC NOR'EASTER PATTERN (INDICATIVE OF FIRST OF
DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR OR EVEN APRIL NOT JUNE!!!) WITH STG SFC LOW
OFF NRN MID-ATLANTIC WITH DVLPG CLOSED H5 LOW TILTING NEG TOWARD
BROADER... COLDER...STGR CLOSED LOW JUST S OF JAMES BAY.

MDLS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS SUBTLE DFRNCS...BUT
IN LARGE WELL TRACKED AND FCSTD. SFC LOW MVS FM OH RVR VLY SAT ACRS
SRN PA/WV/MD TO JERSY SHORE SAT NGT/ERLY SUN AND THEN SLOWLY HUGS
LI/SNE/CC SUN INTO GULF OF ME SUN NGT AS SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE.

A HVY RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF NE...ESP LATE SAT-SUN WITH EXACT
AXIS/AMTS OF HVY RAINFALL STL IN QUESTION. ONE SUBTLE DFRNC BTWN
GFS/ETA IS THAT GFS DOESN'T QUITE "PHASE" THE TWO SYSTEMS AS MUCH AS
ETA WITH SRN S/W MORE PRODOMINAT THUS H8-H7 DEFORMATION STRUCTURE
HAS TIGHTER GRADIENT WITH HVST RAINS ACRS SNE. MEANWHILE...ETA SOLN
OF MORE DOMINANT NRN STREAM AND REASON FOR SYSTEM GOING NEGATIVE
ACCNTS FOR A BROADER H8-H7 DEFORMATION STRUCTURE WITH HVY RAINS
SPREADING MORE NORTHWARD INTO NY AND PTNS OF VT WHICH SEEMS MORE
FVRBL AS WE'VE SEEN MDLS WEAKEN INFLUENCE OF NRN SYSTEMS MUCH TOO
FAST AND THIS PATTERN OF ADVECTING VAST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FURTHER
N SOMEWHAT SMLR TO LAST WKNDS EVENT.

HPC HAS ENTIRE FA >1"...MUCH OF FA (ADRNDKS E) >1.5" AND SRN FA AND
PSBLY SRN FA >2" AND SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT WITH LCLZD HEAVIER AMTS
LKLY. DAYSHIFT ISSUED FLOOD PTNL STATEMENT (ESFBTV) AND CERTAINLY
WORTH WATCHING WITH 24 HR FFG IN THE 2.5-3.5" ARENA.

STEADIEST/HVST SLOWLY EXITING W TO E SUN AFTN WITH -SHRA LKLY TO CONT
SUN NGT/ERLY MON IN FVRBL NW FLOW. A COLD SYSTEM...THUS AS SFC LOW
WRAPS INTO GULF OF ME AND NNW WNDS MV INTO FA...TMPS WL DROP DRG DAY
AS H8 TMPS DROP TO 2C.

LONGER TERM: TROF GETS REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING ERLY NXT WEEK FOR
SOME DRIER WX AND SOME SS RETURNING ALG WITH SEASONABLE TMPS. A WEAK
FNT TUES CUD BRG ABT SOME -SHRA.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW






















   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

762
ASUS51 KBTV 311005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-311100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    51  49  92 E3        29.66R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    48  48 100 CALM      29.70R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     48  48 100 CALM      29.66R
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    48  47  96 CALM      29.69R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



     Our Local Student forecasts will return after the academic break.
                                 Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
 LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
 NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

 .TODAY...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 65 TO 70.
 LIGHT WIND. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
 .TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN. LOW 50 TO 55. LIGHT WIND. CHANCE OF RAIN
 90 PERCENT.
 .SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN. HIGH 55 TO 60. NORTH WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
 CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
 .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED
 SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
 .MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE 60S.
 CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
 .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
 LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
 .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
 HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
 .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 40 TO 45 AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S.
 .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
 70S.
 .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGH IN THE MID
 70S.

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