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Expires:200307042100;;165569
FPUS51 KBTV 040725
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-042100-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
325 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS MAY HAVE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. HIGH IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND
AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LIGHT WIND.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 80.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 50 TO 55.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 55 TO 60 AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 50S AND HIGH IN THE MID
70S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 50 TO 55 AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 040625
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
225 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

WK TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TODAY FROM THE WEST. CF TO MOVE ACRS THE
GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND THE FA ON SAT. WK RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO
BUILD INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST ON SAT NITE.

LIMITED 00-02Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC DATA SHOWS SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WESTERLY AT 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH SCT CONVECTION ACRS THE FA BY LATER
TODAY. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME CONVECTION MOVING ACRS
ONT ATTM...AND THIS AREA OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE TO AFFECT
THE FA EARLIER THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FCST. IR SAT PIX
SHOW SOME MID-LVL CLDS AFFECTING THE NRN TIER ZONES ATTM.

WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN WK CAA
FOR SAT/SAT NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE
FA EARLY TODAY AND LATE TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA
TODAY THRU SAT. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ON SAT AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA
TODAY AND ON SAT. PW VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AROUND
1.25" FOR TODAY THRU SAT...THEN DECREASE TO BLO AN INCH ON SAT NITE.

CAPES TO BE AOB 2000 J/KG ACRS THE FA TODAY AND ON SAT AND AOB
1200 J/KG TONITE. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BECOME MORE SHEARED AS THE
DAY WEARS ON TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONITE...WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF
AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTORS FOR SVR WX TODAY ACRS THE FA APPEAR
TO BE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR AND GOOD MID-LVL DRY AIR/INSTABILITY EARLY
TODAY (WHEN ANY PCPN SHOULD OCCUR MOSTLY ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES).
PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY SVR WX OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND JUST
MENTIONING SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS EARLIER
TODAY. WILL ACTUALLY BE PULLING THE MENTION OF ANY PCPN FOR TONITE
ACRS THE FA AND HOPE THAT THE NEW DAY ONE SPC SVR WX OUTLOOK IS TOO
BULLISH ON BRINGING ANY UPR MIDWEST/GREAT LKS SVR WX INTO THE FA
LATER TONITE. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA ON
SAT. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 85-90F TODAY AND ON SAT.

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW. WRK ZONES OUT UNDER
ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY





FXUS61 KBTV 040224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2003

UPDATED ZONES JUST ISSUED TO REMOVE THE "EVENING" WORDING AND THE 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. RADAR
AND SATELLITE INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY HAS NOW DIRUNALLY DISSIPATED
AND/OR SHIFTED EASTWARD THRU QUEBEC'S EASTERN TOWNSHIPS.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY ZONES AT THIS TIME, BUT
WE'VE BEEN WATCHING THE TIMING OF THE S/WV MOVING FROM LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING TO THE CHAMPLAIN VLY BY NOON ON THE 4TH OF JULY.  THIS
TIMING SUGGEST A PATCH OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS NRN NY IN THE MORNING,
THEN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.  WOULD NOT EXPECT A VERY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM EVENT SINCE MID LVL MSTR SEEMS QUITE LIMITED.

DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 5PM THURSDAY FOLLOWS.....

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPS APPROACHING 90. MODELS SHOW WEAK SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. GFS MOS POPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NGM
AND ETA MOS POPS LOOKING A BIT TOO LOW. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND WENT WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS
ON FRIDAY.

ON SATURDAY...ETA AND GFS BRING SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO WILL AGAIN GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
MODELS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS...WITH GFS MODEL HAVING A DEEPER SFC LOW. MODELS...NOW
HAVE THE PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
DROPPED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH/REB







FXUS61 KBTV 032120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
520 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2003

IN THE SHORT TERM...RADAR LOOP SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OTTAWA VLY ATTM. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ZONES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPS APPROACHING 90. MODELS SHOW WEAK SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. GFS MOS POPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH THRU THE PERIOD...WITH NGM
AND ETA MOS POPS LOOKING A BIT TOO LOW. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND WENT WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS
ON FRIDAY.

ON SATURDAY...ETA AND GFS BRING SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO WILL AGAIN GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
MODELS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS...WITH GFS MODEL HAVING A DEEPER SFC LOW. MODELS...NOW
HAVE THE PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
DROPPED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

334
ASUS51 KBTV 040805
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-040900-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     67  64  90 CALM      29.79S FOG
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     59  59 100 CALM      29.87S FOG
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     63  62  97 CALM      29.83S FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     63  61  93 CALM      29.81S
RUTLAND        CLEAR     63  57  82 SE6       29.84S
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     61  59  93 CALM      29.84F FOG
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     60  60 100 CALM      29.84F FOG
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



     Our Local Student forecasts will return after the academic break.
                                 Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
 RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
 325 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
 STORMS MAY HAVE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. HIGH IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND
 AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
 .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LIGHT WIND.
 .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
 HIGH IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
 40 PERCENT.
 .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
 .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 80.
 .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 50 TO 55.
 .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
 .TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...
 OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 55 TO 60 AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
 .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 50S AND HIGH IN THE MID
 70S.
 .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 50 TO 55 AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.

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