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Expires:200307302000;;676402
FPUS51 KBTV 300711
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003



VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-302000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
315 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH 80 TO 85. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE. LOW IN
THE 50S. CALM WIND.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 80 TO 85. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH 70 TO 75.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE MID
70S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE UPPER
50S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE UPPER
50S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE MID 50S
AND HIGH IN THE MID 70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 300605
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 AM EST WED JUL 30 2003

...SUMMER 2003 - THE SUMMER OF THE CUT-OFF LOWS...

BIG PIX: A CUT-OFF LOW ACRS NE CORRIDIOR WITH LOTS OF RAIN LAST WEEK.
A CUT-OFF SYSTEM ACRS QUEBEC/ONTARIO PROVIDING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TMPS AND FREQUENT SHRA THIS WKND AND ERLY THIS WEEK. NEXT...A CLOSED
LOW ACRS MANITOBA THAT WL SLOWLY DROP ACRS NRN MS RVR VLY AND SLOWLY
SHIFT E ACRS GRT LAKES THE REST OF THIS WEEK/WKND AND ERLY NXT WEEK.

ATTM...LOOKS LIKE SNE/NY/NJ/PA "UNDER THE GUN" AS THE NON-SUMMER OF
DISCONTENT CONTS ACRS THEIR FA. HWVR...MORE -SHRA ACTVTY LKLY HERE AS
WELL AND WITH HIGH PWS AND LTL FLOW EVEN ISOLD HVY DOWNPOURS LIKE
LAST WEEK ARE PSBL AS WELL.

CRNT: SHRA ACTVTY EXITING NE VT WITH CLRG SHORTLY FOLLOWING. LGT
WNDS/GRND MOISTURE WL PROMOTE PTCHY DENSE FOG ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS
PTNS OF FA.

WTR VPR SHWS LAST S/W WITH ONTARIO/QUEBEC UPR LOW MVG ACRS NRN NY/
QUEBEC BUT THAT WL LIFT OUT OF FA BY DAYBRK.

SHORT TERM (TDY/TNGT): S/W RIDGE BUILDING ACRS FA LTR TDY/TNGT WITH
ULVL FLOW BCMG MORE WSW. TD PRETTY MUCH STAY U50S TDY WITH GUD DEAL
OF SS CREATING STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES TDY BUT SOME WRMG AT MID-LVLS
SHLD PUT A SMALL CAP ACRS FA FOR SOME DVLPG CU BUT RAINFREE.

TNGT...UPR RDG ACRS FA WL ACCNT FOR MAINLY SKC ACRS FA AND WITH SFC
LOW WELL W ACRS MN AND SFC HIGH E OF NOVA SCOTIA...VRY SLGT S
GRADIENT. THUS...THE WX MAKER TNGT WL BE PTCHY DENSE FOG.

MID TERM (THU-FRI): THE TRANSITION PERIOD WHERE DFRNCS LIE BTWN THE
MDLS IN THE SPEED OF SFC SYSTEMS ACRS E COAST/NE. GFS/CNDN FASTER
WITH DVLPG TROF/SFC LOW MVG UP COAST INTO SNE FRI WITH THE ETA/UKMET
SLOWER TIMING. 12PLANET DISC HAVE EVERYONE TAKING COMPROMISE IN
THESE SOLNS AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIFFER.

S/W RDG AXIS SLOWLY LIFTS NE OF FA BY LATE THU/THU NGT WITH SOME ULVL
DFLNC AND VORT ENERGY ON ITS HEELS ACRS NY STATE LATE THU/THU EVE.
ETA INDICATES LOTS OF LLVL INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES
AND TD IN M-U60S WHICH APPEARS WELL OVERDONE. SFC TD ARD 60 APPEAR
MORE LIKE IT AND MID LVLS RATHER DRY...SO WL KEEP DRY FCST BUT WL
NEED TO WATCH LLVL MOISTURE FOR PSBL ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN NRN NY DRG
THIS TIME.

AS MNTD ABV...GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE BUT STL KEEPS BNDRY AND BEST
FORCING ACRS SNE FRI WITH ETA EVEN FURTHER S. HWVR...WITH INCRSG
LLVL MOISTURE/ULVL DFLNC AND TIMING OF WEAK VORTS DIFFICULT WL LEAVE
CHC ACRS OUR FA FRI.

LONGER TERM (SAT-TUE): NO CHGS TO CRNT FCST WHICH IS CHC SHRA THRU
PERIOD BUT FEEL BEST CHC LIES ACRS ERN HLF/TWO-THIRDS FOR MUCH OF THE
WKND WITH PERHAPS ALL GETTING INTO THE MIX ERLY NXT WEEK.

SUMMARY: VRY LTL IF ANY CHGS TO GOING FCST OR GRIDS.

GRIDS/WORKS AVBL ARD 3 AM.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW











































FXUS61 KBTV 300106
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
905 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...KICKED OFF
BY REMAINING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND UPPER TROF SLIPPING BY JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER. LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...REMNANTS OF CONVECTION THAT
PRODUCED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS IN SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.

UPDATE TO ZONES THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY PRECIP
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO USED
SCATTERED WORDING ACROSS REST OF REGION...BUT LEFT RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES DRY.

TIMING OF PRECIP IN GOING FORECAST LOOKS OK...AS THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...AND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ON THROUGH
THINGS SHOULD WIND UP BY MIDNIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP HAS ALSO
RAISED FOG POTENTIAL...SO LEFT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPS LEFT UNCHANGED.

WORK ZONES OUT...FINALS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.BTV...NONE.

HANSON





FXUS61 KBTV 292003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

UPR LOW NORTH OF THE GRTLKS WL MOVE EAST THRU WED. SHRTWV ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW PRODUCING FEW SHRA/TSRA ACRS NRN NYS THIS PM WHERE
AIRMASS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THREAT OF SEVERE MINIMAL BUT COOL POOL
ALOFT AND FVRBL WB ZERO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL. WL KEEP
IN MENTION OF PCPN THRU EARLY TONITE FOR ALL NRN ZONES. PTCHY FOG
LATE TONITE IN MTN/RVR VLYS. DURING WED...UPPER LOW WL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AN AFFECT ON NC/NE VT. WILL KEEP CHC SHRA/TSRA THIS RGN...BUT
REST OF FA LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM UPR LOW FOR ANY MENTION
OF PCPN.

WED NITE THRU THURS NITE: EXPECT DRY CONDITION THIS PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS DURING THIS PERIOD AS RIDGING DVLPS BEHIND
DEPARTING UPR LOW.

FRI THRU SAT: SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND
AMT OF PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GFS FASTER AND WETTER THAN ETA.
PCPN BEING GENERATED BY GFS APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT TIMING LOOKS OK
HAVE ACCEPTED THE GFS REGARDING ARRIVAL TIME OF SHWRS...BUT CUT
BACK ON QPF. ATMOS INITIALLY LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR MENTION TSRA.

EXTENDED: PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERY WX EXPECTED. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WRN GRTLKS ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PCPN DURING
THIS PERIOD.

.BTV...NONE.

RJS




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

062
ASUS51 KBTV 301005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    60  59  96 SE7       30.11R
MORRISVILLE    FOG       59  59 100 S5        30.15R VSB 1/2
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     57  57 100 CALM      30.13R
RUTLAND        CLEAR     55  52  88 SE6       30.15R
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       54  53  97 CALM      30.15R VSB 1/4
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     53  52  96 CALM      30.15R FOG
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



     Our Local Student forecasts will return after the academic break.
                                 Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
 FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
 MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
 ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
 315 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003

 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
 THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH 80 TO 85. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. CHANCE OF RAIN
 20 PERCENT.
 .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE. LOW IN
 THE 50S. CALM WIND.
 .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 80 TO 85. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
 .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
 .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH 70 TO 75.
 CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
 .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
 UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
 .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE MID
 70S.
 .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE UPPER
 50S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
 .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE UPPER
 50S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
 .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE MID 50S
 AND HIGH IN THE MID 70S.

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