Print

Print


Expires:200310022000;;955726
FPUS51 KBTV 020730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-022000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
330 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2003

.TODAY...CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ABOVE
2000 FEET. ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST LATE. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 30 TO 35. WEST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 50. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING SOUTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE UPPER
50S.
.MONDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW AROUND 40 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
50S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S AND HIGH IN THE MID
50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 020653
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2003

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS -37C.  SO DESPITE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST LATER TODAY WITH VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500 MB.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.  AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO AND SNOW LEVEL
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500 FEET OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 2000 FEET OVER
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  STILL FEEL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
WITH CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SOME PRECIPITATION BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT.  ONCE THE
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EXIT LATER TONIGHT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20 TO MID 30 DEGREE RANGE.  SINCE
AREA IS BEYOND THE GROWING SEASON...NO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED FOR THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
INCREASE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP OVER THE
FREEZING MARK...SO THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH...WILL RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY.  THIS WORKS WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FORECAST AREA STAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL
TO THE WEST.  THUS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA IN THE GOING FORECAST.  MIGHT BE MORE OF A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVENT...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE THIS
MORE CLOSELY.  NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.






FXUS61 KBTV 020215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1010 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2003

LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME SHWRS IN PORTIONS OF ST LWR VLY AND
ADRNDKS. STLT PICS SHOWING PLENTY OF CLDS ACRS FA...EXCEPT ERN VT.
EXPECT CLDS TO INCR ACRS ERN VT...AND FOR SHWR ACTIVITY TO BECOME
MORE WDSPRD OVRNGHT WITH APRCH OF STG SHRTWV FROM GRTLKS. SO GOING
FCST OF SHWRS LIKELY IN MUCH OF NRN NY AND CHC SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS REMAINDER OF FA LOOKS OK. MIN TEMP FCSTS ALSO REASONABLE...SO
NO UPDATE ATTM.


.....PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.....

CRNT: SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH VRY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES IN
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEPARTING S/W HAVE ACCNTD FOR INSTABILITY -SHRA/
SPRINKLES AND COLD AIR FUNNELS. SAT/RDR PIXS SHW ANTHR LAKE EFFECT
BAND TRYING TO BCM BETTER ORGANIZED AND ACRS LAKE ERIE AND PSBLY
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS LAKE ONTARIO AND WL BE PRIMARY FOCUS THRU
ERLY TNGT.

SHORT TERM (TNGT-SAT): STG S/W DROPS INTO BASE OF LW TROF ACRS GRT
LAKES TNGT...BACKING FLOW AND DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE TNGT AS
LAKE-H8 TMP DFRNC >15C WITH SSW (230-240) FETCH. THUS...CONTD LE
-SHRA ACTVTY AS WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT BCMG MORE
WIDESPREAD ACRS NY FA OVRNGT AS ENTIRE AREA CONTS TO DESTABILIZE.

S/W TROF BCMS NEG TILT AS IT CROSSES FA THU WITH A SFC WAVE AND STG
CAA ACRS FA WITH H8 TMPS -3 TO -5C AND H10-H5 THICKNESS ARD 5300M
AND FRZG LVL DROPPING TO 1-1.5K. ATMOS BCMG VER UNSTABLE...DRY
ADIABATIC THRU 15-20K WL INITIATE CONVECTIVE TYPE PCPN WITH -SHRA/
-SHSN/GRAUPEL AND PSBL ISOLD TRW...ESP CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO AND
WARM LAKE SFC. THIS CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
GRAUPEL/SNOW TO EVEN REACH THE VLY FLOORS DESPITE TMPS IN THE 40S
WITH ONLY 30S IN ADRNDKS PSBL GIVEN ARD 40F TDY AT KSLK.

THIS S/W AND TROF EXITS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH TO OUR S FOR MAINLY DRY
FRI BUT SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF FA WITH ANTHR STG S/W AND DEEPENING
TROF ACRS GRT LAKES AND SFC LOW CREATING A SGNFCT PRS GRADIENT FOR
RETURN FLOW SSW WNDS AND DVLPG WAA FRI AFTN/FRI NGT. MIN TMPS FRI
NGT WL VARY GREATLY ACRS FA WITH MILDEST CHMPL VLY/ST LWRNC VLY WITH
ERN VT VLYS DECOUPLED AND COLDEST.

THE ABV MNTD S/W DIGS...CUTS OFF UPR LOW OVR GRT LAKES AND THEN
ROTATES ARD UPR LOW CAUSING OCLD FNT TO SLOW ACRS GRT LAKES SAT
INTO FA SAT NGT/SUN TIL ANTHR S/W KICKS THE FNT THRU SUN. ENUF
DYNAMICS...LIFT...WAA TO PRODUCE -SHRA THREAT ACRS FA SAT THRU SUN
WITH STG GRADIENT FOR BREEZY/WINDY...MILDER ON SAT.

INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON
SUN...THEN AN UPR TROF TO AFFECT THE FA ON MON. HI PRESS TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON MON...THEN ACRS THE FA ON TUE/WED. WILL
CONT WITH THE MENTION OF PCPN ON SUN/MON WITH A DRY FCST ON TUE/WED.
FEW CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THIS TIME-FRAME BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.

.BTV...NONE.

.SHORT TERM - SLW
.LONG TERM - WEM





























FXUS61 KBTV 011807
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2003

CRNT: SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH VRY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES IN
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEPARTING S/W HAVE ACCNTD FOR INSTABILITY -SHRA/
SPRINKLES AND COLD AIR FUNNELS. SAT/RDR PIXS SHW ANTHR LAKE EFFECT
BAND TRYING TO BCM BETTER ORGANIZED AND ACRS LAKE ERIE AND PSBLY
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS LAKE ONTARIO AND WL BE PRIMARY FOCUS THRU
ERLY TNGT.

SHORT TERM (TNGT-SAT): STG S/W DROPS INTO BASE OF LW TROF ACRS GRT
LAKES TNGT...BACKING FLOW AND DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE TNGT AS
LAKE-H8 TMP DFRNC >15C WITH SSW (230-240) FETCH. THUS...CONTD LE
-SHRA ACTVTY AS WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT BCMG MORE
WIDESPREAD ACRS NY FA OVRNGT AS ENTIRE AREA CONTS TO DESTABILIZE.

S/W TROF BCMS NEG TILT AS IT CROSSES FA THU WITH A SFC WAVE AND STG
CAA ACRS FA WITH H8 TMPS -3 TO -5C AND H10-H5 THICKNESS ARD 5300M
AND FRZG LVL DROPPING TO 1-1.5K. ATMOS BCMG VER UNSTABLE...DRY
ADIABATIC THRU 15-20K WL INITIATE CONVECTIVE TYPE PCPN WITH -SHRA/
-SHSN/GRAUPEL AND PSBL ISOLD TRW...ESP CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO AND
WARM LAKE SFC. THIS CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
GRAUPEL/SNOW TO EVEN REACH THE VLY FLOORS DESPITE TMPS IN THE 40S
WITH ONLY 30S IN ADRNDKS PSBL GIVEN ARD 40F TDY AT KSLK.

THIS S/W AND TROF EXITS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH TO OUR S FOR MAINLY DRY
FRI BUT SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF FA WITH ANTHR STG S/W AND DEEPENING
TROF ACRS GRT LAKES AND SFC LOW CREATING A SGNFCT PRS GRADIENT FOR
RETURN FLOW SSW WNDS AND DVLPG WAA FRI AFTN/FRI NGT. MIN TMPS FRI
NGT WL VARY GREATLY ACRS FA WITH MILDEST CHMPL VLY/ST LWRNC VLY WITH
ERN VT VLYS DECOUPLED AND COLDEST.

THE ABV MNTD S/W DIGS...CUTS OFF UPR LOW OVR GRT LAKES AND THEN
ROTATES ARD UPR LOW CAUSING OCLD FNT TO SLOW ACRS GRT LAKES SAT
INTO FA SAT NGT/SUN TIL ANTHR S/W KICKS THE FNT THRU SUN. ENUF
DYNAMICS...LIFT...WAA TO PRODUCE -SHRA THREAT ACRS FA SAT THRU SUN
WITH STG GRADIENT FOR BREEZY/WINDY...MILDER ON SAT.

INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON
SUN...THEN AN UPR TROF TO AFFECT THE FA ON MON. HI PRESS TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON MON...THEN ACRS THE FA ON TUE/WED. WILL
CONT WITH THE MENTION OF PCPN ON SUN/MON WITH A DRY FCST ON TUE/WED.
FEW CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THIS TIME-FRAME BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.

.BTV...NONE.

.SHORT TERM - SLW
.LONG TERM - WEM


























   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

777
ASUS51 KBTV 021005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-021100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    46  41  82 S8        29.95S
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    41  38  89 S3        29.99F
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    40  39  97 CALM      29.97S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     39  38  96 CALM      29.97F
RUTLAND        PTCLDY    39  34  81 SE9       29.98F
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       36  36 100 W3        30.03R VSB 1/2
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    35  34  96 CALM      30.00S
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                     3:00PM, Wednesday October 1, 2003
                   STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Anthony Seibel
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: Tonight will be another brisk night, preparing many for the
   next few days. Skies will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of
   snow showers in higher elevations, becoming more likely by morning.
   Lows 36-43 degrees with Southwest winds 5-10mph.

   Thursday: Some areas could very well see the first snow of the season!
   Higher elevations will see snow showers through the day with slight
   accumulations. Lower elevations expect scattered showers. Highs 42-50
   with South winds 5-10mph, shifting west as the day progresses.

   Thursday Night: Scattered rain and snow showers continue, clearing to
   partly cloudy skies overnight. Chilly lows 35-42 degrees.

   Friday: Partly cloudy and mild. Highs 46-52, Lows 35-40 with West
   winds 5-10mph.

                             Extended Forecast

   Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Slightly
   warmer than previous days in the the week with highs climbing near the
   mid 50's, Overnight lows remain cool in the upper 30's.

   Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50's,
   lows around 40 degrees.

   Monday: Partly cloudy with showers possible. Highs in the lower 50's,
   overnight lows in the upper 30's.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Last night was quite chilly across the Kingdom, and that's about as
   good as its going to get this week. A Low currently in our area will
   continue to supply scattered showers with a possibility of snow
   showers through Thursday night. A weak high to our Southwest will make
   Friday a fairly pleasant day. We will see the weather quickly changing
   back to cool temps and dark skies by Saturday as a strong shortwave
   stalls across the Great Lakes Region, leaving our area cool and damp
   as it exits late Monday. If travel conditions are safe, reward your
   ears Thursday night with the sounds of the Vermont Symphony Orchestra,
   performing at 7:30pm in the Lyndon State College Alexander Twilight
   Theater.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html