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FPUS51 KBTV 030730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-032000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2003

.TODAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING. HIGH 50 TO 55. WEST
WIND 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTH LATE.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH WIND 5
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.
SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOW AROUND 40.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH 50
TO 55.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOW IN THE LOWER 40S.
.MONDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW AROUND 40 AND HIGH IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGH IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 030631
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
231 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2003

OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND SEE JUST SOME MINOR TIMING
TWEAKS ARE NECESSARY.  IN THE SHORT TERM...DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THIS IS HELPING TO BRING ANY LIGHT
UPSLOPE INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO AN END.  WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...UPSTREAM MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  SO WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP
TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB.  THUS
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS.  850 MB JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVES OVER THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH SHARPER UPPER TROUGH...FEEL EASTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LEAVE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST DRY FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FIRST TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND LIKE THE COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WHICH SUGGESTS A CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION
EVENT.  WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY THEN TAPER OFF
TO CHANCE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  UPPER TROUGH
AXIS STILL LAGS BACK TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE FACT THAT SURROUNDING OFFICES ARE
LEAVING IN A CHANCE...WILL DO THE SAME FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE REGION SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DEVELOP AND HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF CHANCE WORDING FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY.  REST OF EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
DRY AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.








FXUS61 KBTV 030212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2003

WILL BE SENDING OUT UPDATED FCST SHORTLY...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FCST
CURRENT AND TO MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. RADAR AND SFC
OBS STILL INDICATE SOME PCPN OCCURRING...MAINLY OVE HIR TRRN OF NRN
ZONES. WITH UPR LVL TROF MOVING EAST OF RGN ATTM...FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BULK OF REMAINING SHWRS TO
BE ALG WRN SLOPES OF GREENS/ADRNDKS...MAINLY IN FORM OF SNOW OVR HIR
TRRN AS TEMPS ALREADY IN 30S. NO CHANGES BEYOND FIRST PERIOD.

.....PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.....


.SHORT TERM...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD POOL AT 500MB ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
LARGER TROUGH AT THIS TIME...TRIGGERING A SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID
SHIFT FORECAST HAD CONDITIONS NAILED DOWN PRETTY WELL...WITH LIGHT
SNOW IN KSLK OBSERVATION...AND A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF. SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...AND LOCALLY RUN WORKSTATION ETA SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT 500 MB FOR FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE.  NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH FOR SATURDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN.
BEST RAIN ACCOMPANIES PREFRONTAL TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.  BY THE TIME THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES THE PRECIP SHOULD HAVE ENDED...SO NO MENTION OF
SNOW FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPR TROF TO AFFECT THE FA ON
MON...AS SFC HI PRESS STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HI
PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA ON TUE...THEN A WK CF LOOKS TO DROP DOWN ACRS
THE FA ON WED. MORE HI PRESS LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR NEXT THU. WILL
CONT WITH THE MENTION OF PCPN ON MON...WITH A DRY FCST ON TUE. FOR
WED...WILL TREND TOWARDS THE MENTION OF SOME MORE CLDS FOR NOW. NEXT
THU LOOKS TO BE DRY. FEW CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THIS TIME-FRAME BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.BTV...NONE

$$

HANSON...SHORT TERM/MURRAY...LONG TERM







FXUS61 KBTV 021910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2003

.SHORT TERM...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD POOL AT 500MB ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
LARGER TROUGH AT THIS TIME...TRIGGERING A SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID
SHIFT FORECAST HAD CONDITIONS NAILED DOWN PRETTY WELL...WITH LIGHT
SNOW IN KSLK OBSERVATION...AND A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF. SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...AND LOCALLY RUN WORKSTATION ETA SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT 500 MB FOR FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE.  NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH FOR SATURDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN.
BEST RAIN ACCOMPANIES PREFRONTAL TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.  BY THE TIME THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES THE PRECIP SHOULD HAVE ENDED...SO NO MENTION OF
SNOW FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPR TROF TO AFFECT THE FA ON
MON...AS SFC HI PRESS STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HI
PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA ON TUE...THEN A WK CF LOOKS TO DROP DOWN ACRS
THE FA ON WED. MORE HI PRESS LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR NEXT THU. WILL
CONT WITH THE MENTION OF PCPN ON MON...WITH A DRY FCST ON TUE. FOR
WED...WILL TREND TOWARDS THE MENTION OF SOME MORE CLDS FOR NOW. NEXT
THU LOOKS TO BE DRY. FEW CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THIS TIME-FRAME BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

HANSON...SHORT TERM/MURRAY...LONG TERM




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

492
ASUS51 KBTV 031005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     40  31  70 W7        30.09R
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     32  27  81 CALM      30.09R
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     34  32  92 S5        30.07R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     38  34  85 CALM      30.04R
RUTLAND        MOCLDY    36  28  75 SE3       30.11R
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     32  30  92 CALM      30.11R
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    30  29  96 CALM      30.13R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      5:00PM, Thursday October 2, 2003
                   STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Heather Vieira
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: It will be very chilly with temperatures dropping below
   freezing in many locations. Some areas above 2000 feet will see
   scattered snow showers through midnight. Accumulations will be a
   dusting to an inch. Lows tonight will be between 30 and 35 degrees.
   Wind will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

   Friday: Today will be mostly sunny and cool with highs around the 50
   degree mark. It will be brisk with a southwesterly wind of 10-15 mph.

   Friday night: Cloud cover will increase during the evening hours with
   a slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows will be warmer
   and in the upper 30s.

   Saturday: It will be windy with on and off rain showers throughout the
   day. Highs will be warmer and in the mid to upper 50s. The showers
   will end by the evening and lows will be in the 40s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Sunday: The clouds will begin to diminish throughout the day. There is
   a chance of a passing shower with highs in the mid to upper 50s and
   lows in the upper 40s.

   Monday: Cloudy with a chance of a shower throughout the day. Highs
   55-60 and lows 38-43.

   Tuesday: Partly cloudy with some peek-a-boo sunshine. Lows 37-41 and
   highs 49-53.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Temperatures will continue to be below normal across the Northeast
   Kingdom. Some areas above 2000 feet will see the first flakes of snow
   tonight. Accumulations will be between a dusting to an inch in these
   locations. The reason for these cold conditions is that an upper level
   trough is pumping cold air across the region. Make sure to dress warm
   when venturing out tomorrow morning. The remainder of the weekend
   looks to be damp with scattered showers. It might be a good idea to
   bring an umbrella when heading out to Oktoberfest at Burke Mountain
   Saturday. The rest of the week looks to be slightly warmer but will
   remain cloudy and damp.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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