Print

Print


Expires:200310062000;;040363
FPUS51 KBTV 060825
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>019-062000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-
ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
KILLINGTON VT...MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...
RICHFORD VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
420 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2003

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH 45 TO 50. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY DENSE FOG. LOW 25 TO 30. CALM WIND.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH 50 TO 55. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 35 TO 40.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER. HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW NEAR 40 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 40 TO 45 AND HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 060937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
530 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2003

UPPER TROF STILL OVERHEAD TODAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES BY MIDDAY.
NEAR PERFECT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS
TO DROP A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AND THE FORMATION OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG OR FREEZING FOG WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LTL SFC
ICING.

CHILLY WEATHER AND MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOWCOVER OF THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME A MEMORY STARTING TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAPID WARMING AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS STG WLY H8 FLOW
ADVECTS WARMTH WHICH HAS BEEN EVIDENT ACROS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
S-CNTRL CANADA THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND....HAVE DECIDED TO STAY WITH DRY AND AT LEAST
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS.  A WEAK "SIDE-DOOR" COLD FRONT MAY SLIP
THRU NRN AREAS THURS MRNG FOR A BIT OF COOLING.  THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT RISK THAT A CLOSING UPR LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COULD
LIFT TOWARD SERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS.  WILL LET THE COMING DAY SHIFT
RE-CONSIDER THESE LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

BELL

$$







FXUS61 KBTV 060041
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
842 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2003

SOME LK EFFECT SHWRS E OF LK ONT BUT WITH KTYX VWP INDCTG NW FLOW
ACTVTY SHD RMN S OF FA.  DIURNAL RW- HAS DSPTD ACRS FA AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALF LIFTS OUT AND HTG IS LOST.  UL TROF AXIS RMNS ACRS
RGN AND STILL ANOTHER SPOKE OF S/WV ENERGY FCST TO ROTATE THRU LT
TNGT AND MON MRNG.  THIS SHD BE ENUF TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLDS ARND TNGT
WITH CHC RW--/MTN SW-- MON AIDED BY SFC HTG.

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.  ONLY CHG WL BE TO RMV EVNG PCPN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

KJC

$$





FXUS61 KBTV 051829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2003

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL MOVE OUT OF REGION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY IN THE
INSTABILITY OF COOLING TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND
HEATING AT SURFACE FROM SUN PEAKING THROUGH CLOUDS. VERY SMALL HAIL
IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS...EVIDENCE OF COLD AIR NOT TOO FAR OFF THE
SURFACE.

SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HEATING ENDS AND 500 MB
COLD POOL MOVES EAST. ONE MORE WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH BASE OF
500 MB TROUGH ON MONDAY. LIMITED CHC SPRINKLES/MOUNTAIN FLURRIES TO
AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. ALTHOUGH AFTN MAX TEMPS IN 40S IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS...850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT DURING DAY MONDAY AT -4C TO
-5C...SO I'M RELUCTANT TO PULL OUT MENTION OF FLURRIES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AREA ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER
TROUGH PULLS AWAY.

GFS MOS TEMPS USED IN THE GRIDS...WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...
EXTENDED FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOOKED AT 00Z MRF
MODEL...06Z GFS MODEL...AND NCEP PRELIMINARY GRAPHICS FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. 06Z GFS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS MODEL SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BULK OF COLDER AIR
WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
EASTERN MAINE.  ALSO...06Z GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
TYPICALLY...THESE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS DO NOT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...BUT JUST SOME CLOUDS...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC
ON THURSDAY...AND THEN REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

HANSON...SHORT TERM/WGH...LONG TERM






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

077
ASUS51 KBTV 061005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    38  35  89 S3        30.05R
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     35  33  92 S3        30.06R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    41  37  86 CALM      30.04R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     35  35 100 CALM      30.02R
RUTLAND        MOCLDY    34  32  93 SE3       30.06R
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       30  30 100 CALM      30.07R VSB 1/2
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    40  38  93 CALM      30.07R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      5:30 PM, Sunday October 5, 2003
                     STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Josh Smith
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain or snow till
   midnight. Low in the mid 30s. Winds from the west at 5 to 10 MPH.
   Chance for precipitation 10 percent.

   Monday: Slight chance of rain or snow toward afternoon otherwise
   partly cloudy. High in the upper 40s. Westward wind at 5 to 10 MPH.
   Chance for precipitation 10 percent.

   Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low in the mid 30s. Winds will be calm.

   Tuesday: Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear toward afternoon. High in
   the lower 50s. Low in the mid 30s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High in the mid 50s. Low in the upper 30s.

   Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High in the upper 50s. Low in the upper 30s.

   Friday: Mostly Sunny. High around 60. Low close to 40.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Good news for the forecast region this week with dry conditions
   dominating. This week should remain mostly dry for the Northeast
   kingdom has that cold frontal system which moved thought our area
   yesterday continues to move east. Current radar imagery shows some
   scattered showers over portions of Vermont mostly to the south and
   east of the forecast area. Except mostly cloudy conditions this
   evening however there is still a slight possibility of rain or snow
   through tomorrow afternoon. Behind this low pressure system, is a
   large area of high pressure which will move over the Northeast Kingdom
   and hang around for the remainder of the week. Temperatures should
   increase as the week progresses as model forecasted thickness lines
   showing colder air aloft moving north. High temperatures could reach
   as high as the mid 60s toward the Columbus Day Weekend. The high
   pressure system should begin to move off to the east next weekend with
   another trough looks to be heading our way. Sorry, no snow this week
   is expected.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html