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FPUS51 KBTV 170739
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-172000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
340 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH 45 TO 50. WEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS. LOW 30 TO 35. CALM WIND. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 45 TO 50. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH 40 TO 45. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
IN THE UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER
30S AND HIGH IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER
40S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE
UPPER 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 170823
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT FRI OCT 17

TDY/TON: BROAD ULVL TROF RMNS OVR NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA THRU
TONITE. PCPN ASSOCD WITH SHRTWV AND WK SFC LOW MOVG FROM MID ATLC
STATES TO OFFSHORE SRN NEW ENG LATER TDY/TON WL RMN WELL SOUTH OF FA.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR RMNS ACRS FA. THIS COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TDY...AND A SHRTWV MOVG THRU RGN TON...WL
ALLOW FOR CONT/D CHC OR SLITE CHC SHRA...WITH PSBL SHSN OVR HIR TRRN.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW...HIGHEST POPS OVR ADRNDKS DUE SOME WEAK
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT MAINLY CLDY SKIES OVR HIR
TRRN...BUT SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED TDY OVR SRN ZONES...AND IN
CHMPLN/CT VLYS DUE DOWNSLOPING.

SAT: AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVR RGN BY MIDDAY AND THEN
SLIDES EAST OF FA DURING PM. MSTR PROFILES STILL INDICATE SOME
LINGERING LLVL MSTR...WITH AN INCR IN HI LVL MSTR DURING PM.
OVERALL...SHUD BALANCE OUT TO A PRTLY SUNNY DAY.

SAT NITE/SUN: HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NRN GRTLKS LATE SATURDAY
SEWRD ACRS ADRNDKS SAT NITE AND THEN ACRS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY (THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES). WITH A TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING YESTERDAY...EXPECT IT TO BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. BEST
CHC FOR SEEING A MIX WOULD BE OVR NRN AND ERN VT LATE SAT NITE.

SUN NITE/MON: LINGERING SHWRS SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLRNG.
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A DRY DAY MONDAY.

EXTENDED: NO CHANGES TO GOING FCST. UNSETTLED WX THRU THE PERIOD.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

RJS





FXUS61 KBTV 170047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
850 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2003

CRNT/UPDATE: COMPOSITE RDR SHWG SOME SCT -SHRA/-SHSN MVG THRU HIR
TRRN OF NRN VT...LKLY ASSOC WITH/AHD OF NXT MINOR S/W MVG ACRS FA
BTWN NOW AND 09Z. THEREAFTER...SOME PRTL CLRG BTWN MINOR S/W AND
APPRCHG WEAK TROF.

PRVS FCST LOOKS GUD XCPT WNDS WERE A BIT MORE NW THAN ACTUAL AND
DOESN'T QUITE INDICATE THE MINOR BACKING FLOW AHD OF TROF AND SLGT
WNDSHFT AFT PSG.

JUST THAT LTL TWEAK...OTHERWISE NO CHGS.

SLW

...PRVS DISC...
FCST CONCERN ARE TEMPS/PRECIP TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEEKEND SYSTEM.

BIG PIC SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CANADA WITH 5H
VORT ROUNDING TROF BASE NORTH OF GREAT LAKES ATTM. THIS ENERGY
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC FRNT/INSTABILITY WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. OVERALL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
WITH ULVL JET/TROF...ACRS DATA RICH CONUS...BUT WERE 1 TO 3
DEGREES TOO COOL AT 85H BASED ON MORNING RAOB DATA. WL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY FOR SHORT TERM TEMP FCSTING. OTHERWISE...VIS SATL
SHOWS NICE MTN WAVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PERPENDICULAR WESTERLY
FLOW. ALSO...NOTED IS SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACRS CHAMPLAIN/CT
VALLEYS. WEAK WINDS SHIFT LINE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE
RATES HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE VALLEY -RW/MTN -SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EVEN SOME PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT ROUSES POINT.

TONIGHT...5H VORT LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT PUSHES ACRS OUR CWA TONIGHT. MESO ETA/WSETA SHOWS
NICE BAND OF 1000-850MB FG...GOOD 25H ULVL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
25H JET ACRS MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ENHANCED LLVL LIFT FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW. ALSO...WSETA SHOWS WEAK AXIS OF LLVL INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF FRNT WITH GOOD LLVL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100-
300 J/KG THIS EVENING. AS FRNT INTERACTS WITH LAKES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WL BE ADVECTED INTO SYSTEM. WL MENTION CHC POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIONS. 85H TEMPS NEAR -4C AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES AOB 1300M
SUPPORTS SOME -SW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN
EXPECTED QPF...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL < 1.0". 850-700MB RH PROGGES
AND RH CROSS SECTIONS OFF BUFKIT DATA SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACRS
CWA...TONIGHT...THEREFORE WL MENTION MC SKIES. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND EFFECTS OF NW FLOW WITH THE WARMER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS AT BTV.

FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS CWA WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW...
SCT MTN -RW/SW WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. ALSO...AS LLVL FLOW BECMGS SW
AND LAKE INSTABILITY CONTS TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...A BAND OF LE
SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACRS OUR WESTERN ZNS ON FRIDAY. WL MENTION
CHC POPS MTN/WESTERN ZNS AND SPRINKLES IN VALLEY AREAS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR -5C AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1300M
SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR 50F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 40S IN THE MTNS. FRIDAY
NITE...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO OUR
CWA. 850-700MB RH PROGGES SHOW BEST MOISTURE MOVING INTO CANADA...
THEREFORE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLR. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS WL PRODUCE ONE OF THE COLDEST NITES THIS FALL. WL MENTION M20S
MTNS VALLEYS TO L30S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEXT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM APPROACHES CWA ON SAT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING SYSTEM FROM
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO SNE BY 12Z SUNDAY. INITIAL BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED LLVL WAA...GOOD 850-700MB FG...AND STRONG 5H VORT WL PUSH
ACRS CWA SATURDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR RW. THERMAL
PROFILE SUGGEST MOSTLY -RW...BUT COULD SEE -SW OVER HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. SUNDAY...STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND FRNT AS 85H
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -8C. TEMPS WL START NEAR 50F AND COULD FALL THRU
THE DAY. BASED ON DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WL MENTION CHC POPS IN THE
MORNING AND DRYING TREND TOWARD EVENING.

EXTENDED...(MONDAY THRU THURSDAY)...GOING FOR A DRY DAY ON MONDAY
AS MDLS SHOW RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND SYSTEM WHICH EXITS REGION ON
SUNDAY. EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED SOME PRECIP...BUT GONE NOW.
RIDGE OVER CWA ON MON. QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW WORKING INTO
REGION FROM THE WEST. EARLIER RUN HAD SUGGESTED THIS LOW WOULD
BRING BULK OF PRECIP LATE TUES/INTO WED...LATEST RUNS OF AVN/GFS
AND MRF NOW HAVE WED/THUR TIME-FRAME W/ LOW DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND VERSUS GOING INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL ADJUST ZONES TO
SHOW NO PRECIP MON. AND CARRY CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THURSDAY. TWEAKED
TEMPS A BIT TUES/WED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO OTHER PARTS OF EXT.
ZONES.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NEILSON







FXUS61 KBTV 161742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2003

FCST CONCERN ARE TEMPS/PRECIP TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEEKEND SYSTEM.

BIG PIC SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CANADA WITH 5H
VORT ROUNDING TROF BASE NORTH OF GREAT LAKES ATTM. THIS ENERGY
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC FRNT/INSTABILITY WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. OVERALL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
WITH ULVL JET/TROF...ACRS DATA RICH CONUS...BUT WERE 1 TO 3
DEGREES TOO COOL AT 85H BASED ON MORNING RAOB DATA. WL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY FOR SHORT TERM TEMP FCSTING. OTHERWISE...VIS SATL
SHOWS NICE MTN WAVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PERPENDICULAR WESTERLY
FLOW. ALSO...NOTED IS SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACRS CHAMPLAIN/CT
VALLEYS. WEAK WINDS SHIFT LINE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE
RATES HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE VALLEY -RW/MTN -SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EVEN SOME PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT ROUSES POINT.

TONIGHT...5H VORT LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT PUSHES ACRS OUR CWA TONIGHT. MESO ETA/WSETA SHOWS
NICE BAND OF 1000-850MB FG...GOOD 25H ULVL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
25H JET ACRS MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ENHANCED LLVL LIFT FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW. ALSO...WSETA SHOWS WEAK AXIS OF LLVL INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF FRNT WITH GOOD LLVL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100-
300 J/KG THIS EVENING. AS FRNT INTERACTS WITH LAKES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WL BE ADVECTED INTO SYSTEM. WL MENTION CHC POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIONS. 85H TEMPS NEAR -4C AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES AOB 1300M
SUPPORTS SOME -SW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN
EXPECTED QPF...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL < 1.0". 850-700MB RH PROGGES
AND RH CROSS SECTIONS OFF BUFKIT DATA SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACRS
CWA...TONIGHT...THEREFORE WL MENTION MC SKIES. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND EFFECTS OF NW FLOW WITH THE WARMER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS AT BTV.

FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS CWA WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW...
SCT MTN -RW/SW WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. ALSO...AS LLVL FLOW BECMGS SW
AND LAKE INSTABILITY CONTS TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...A BAND OF LE
SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACRS OUR WESTERN ZNS ON FRIDAY. WL MENTION
CHC POPS MTN/WESTERN ZNS AND SPRINKLES IN VALLEY AREAS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR -5C AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1300M
SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR 50F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 40S IN THE MTNS. FRIDAY
NITE...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO OUR
CWA. 850-700MB RH PROGGES SHOW BEST MOISTURE MOVING INTO CANADA...
THEREFORE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLR. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS WL PRODUCE ONE OF THE COLDEST NITES THIS FALL. WL MENTION M20S
MTNS VALLEYS TO L30S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEXT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM APPROACHES CWA ON SAT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING SYSTEM FROM
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO SNE BY 12Z SUNDAY. INITIAL BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED LLVL WAA...GOOD 850-700MB FG...AND STRONG 5H VORT WL PUSH
ACRS CWA SATURDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR RW. THERMAL
PROFILE SUGGEST MOSTLY -RW...BUT COULD SEE -SW OVER HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. SUNDAY...STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND FRNT AS 85H
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -8C. TEMPS WL START NEAR 50F AND COULD FALL THRU
THE DAY. BASED ON DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WL MENTION CHC POPS IN THE
MORNING AND DRYING TREND TOWARD EVENING.

EXTENDED...(MONDAY THRU THURSDAY)...GOING FOR A DRY DAY ON MONDAY
AS MDLS SHOW RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND SYSTEM WHICH EXITS REGION ON
SUNDAY. EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED SOME PRECIP...BUT GONE NOW.
RIDGE OVER CWA ON MON. QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW WORKING INTO
REGION FROM THE WEST. EARLIER RUN HAD SUGGESTED THIS LOW WOULD
BRING BULK OF PRECIP LATE TUES/INTO WED...LATEST RUNS OF AVN/GFS
AND MRF NOW HAVE WED/THUR TIME-FRAME W/ LOW DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND VERSUS GOING INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL ADJUST ZONES TO
SHOW NO PRECIP MON. AND CARRY CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THURSDAY. TWEAKED
TEMPS A BIT TUES/WED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO OTHER PARTS OF EXT.
ZONES.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NEILSON




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

218
ASUS51 KBTV 171005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    37  33  85 CALM      30.06R
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    32  30  92 SW3       30.07S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    34  33  96 NW3       30.06R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     33  33 100 CALM      30.05R
RUTLAND        CLEAR     36  28  75 SE3       30.08R
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     32  31  96 N3        30.09S
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     30  30 100 CALM      30.10R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                     5:00PM, Thursday October 16, 2003
                   STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Heather Vieira
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: It will remain cloudy and cold for the remainder of the
   evening hours. Temperatures will drop into the middle to lower 30s
   across the region. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10 mph.

   Friday: Today will be mostly sunny and cool. Highs will only reach the
   middle to upper 40s across the Kingdom. Winds will remain out of the
   west at 10-15mph.

   Friday night: The sky will remain partly cloudy and the low will drop
   below freezing across most of the area. Low 29-34.

   Saturday: It will be slightly warmer than Friday with highs nearing
   the 50 degree mark. The sky will remain mostly cloudy throughout the
   day and into the evening. The low temperature will once again plummet
   to the lower 30s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Sunday: Showers could enter the region by today and the sky will
   remain mostly cloudy again. Highs 45-50 and lows 30-35. There is a
   chance for snow showers in the higher elevations.

   Monday: A chance of showers throughout the day, especially during the
   night time hours. High 48-53 and low 30-35.

   Tuesday: Once again a chance of rain showers throughout the day with
   mostly cloudy skies. High 53-57 and low 35-40.

                            Forecast Discussion

   onight will be a good night to stay indoors and watch the American
   League Championship Series final game of the Red Sox and Yankees since
   it will be very chilly this evening. A cold front moving through into
   the region Friday will remain well to our south keeping the weather
   dry for the Northeast Kingdom. The next weather maker, a low pressure
   system, will make its way into the region Sunday. There is a chance of
   a snow shower or flurry in some of the higher elevations throughout
   the area. Another system will move into the area by Tuesday. Tomorrow
   morning will be cool so make sure to bundle up the children for the
   morning commute to school.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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