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Expires:200310152000;;237786
FPUS51 KBTV 150851
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-152000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
450 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2003

...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES UNTIL MID-MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY. WINDY. HIGH 55 TO 60. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WINDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S. WEST WIND 20 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
45 TO 50. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 30 TO 35.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW 30
TO 35. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE DAY...
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
40S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT. LOW IN
THE UPPER 20S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S
AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 150845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2003

GOING FCST WORKING OUT WELL...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
UPGRADING HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NRN NY TO HIGH WIND WARNING...AND
WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS PM/EVEN FOR REMAINDER OF FA.
WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WRN SLOPES OF GREEN MTNS WL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMNT REGARDING TRACK/INTENSITY OF SFC LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH NEG TILT TROF LIFTING NEWRD ACRS RGN TDY. LOW EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 973 MPB BY 18Z. LOW PROGGED TO TRACK UP THRU THE ST
LWR VLY.
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF FA TDY...EXPECT THE MAIN WX PROBLEM TO
BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG W-SW WINDS THIS PM/EVENING...WITH GREATEST
THREAT ACRS ADRNDKS AND ST LWR VLY...DUE PROXIMITY SFC LOW AND
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR HIGH WINDS. WNDS OF 60-65 KT DOWN TO 2-3K FT
DVLP ACRS THIS RGN...WITH SPEEDS OF 50-55 KTS ACRS REST OF RGN. GOOD
CAA DURING PM/EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING. HAVE
MENTIONED PSBL GUSTS 60 MPH IN WARNING AREA AND 50 IN ADVISORY AREA.
GRADIENT SLACKENS LATER TONIGHT...SO WNDS WL BE ON THE DECLINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING ACRS ALL OF NRN NY AND SC VT..AND WL BE
OVRSPRDING NE VT SHORTLY. THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WL BE LIMITED TO
ABOUT 6 HRS IN MOST AREAS...BUT STG FORCING/DYNAMICS WL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL...WITH AMTS RANGING FROM .5 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
GREATEST AMTS EXPECTED IN NRN NY...AND IN SE VT DUE TRIPLE POINT LOW
AND ASSISTANCE FROM OROGRAPHICS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.

STEADY RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA THIS AM AS DRY
SLOT MOVES IN. WRAPAROUND MSTR FOR THIS PM...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NRN NY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSRA AS ATMOS DESTABILIZES...
BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION.

ULVL TROF RMNS OVR RGN FOR LATER TONITE INTO FRIDAY AS SERIES OF
SHRTWVS ROTATE THRU. LLVL CYC FLOW CONTINUES THRU THURS...SO CONT'D
CHC SHWRS FOR THURS...EXCEPT DRY SRN ZONES. SOME SNOW SHWRS PSBL
TON/THURS OVR HIR TRRN...MAINLY ADRNDKS.

EXTENDED: NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING FCST ATTM. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOW EXPECTED TO FORM ALG MID ATLC CST FRIDAY MAY BE FARTHER
EAST BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS. PCPN MAY BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST OF
FA...BUT WILL NOT REMOVE MENTION OF PCPN FOR FRI NITE/SAT ATTM...AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING A BIT REGARDING NRN EXTENT OF PCPN
SHIELD WITH THIS FEATURE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY THIS PM/EVEN VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS PM/EVNG NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND ADVISORY THIS PM/EVEN NYZ028-035.

$$

RJS





FXUS61 KBTV 150050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
850 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

CRNT/UPDATE: PRVS FCST APPEARS ON TRACK. THE FIRST MAIN CONCERN IS
THE HIGH WIND THREAT ALG WRN SLOPES OF GRN MTNS AND STL APPEARS THAT
WE'LL HAVE A BRF PERIOD OF 50KT JET DOWN TO 3K BFR RAINFALL INTERUPTS
PTNL FOR GRTST MIXING WHILE JET INCREASES. KGYX COORD WITH US ABT
THEIR HWW BUT RAIN HOLDING OFF THEIR LATER...THUS GTR MIXING PTNL
THERE.

STG DOWNSLOPING INTO BLACK RVR VLY AND SW ST LWRNC CTY WITH WND GUSTS
~40KTS...THIS SHLD BE SHORT-LIVED GIVEN RAIN IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
BUT ENUF TO WARRANT A SEPARATE ZONE FOR THIS AREA.

OTHERWISE...ALL LOOKS GUD FM PRVS FCST.

SLW

...PREVIOUS DISC...
SHORT TERM (TNGT-FRI)...MDLS IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH TRACK OF DEEPENING
LOW FM ERN LKS TNGT...THEN DOWN ST LAW VLY WED WITH SFC PRES NR 975
MB BY 18Z WED N OF NNY.  VRY DYNAMIC SYS WITH NEG TILT UPR TROF/LOW
LIFTG NE ACRS FA WED.  RAFL OVRSPRDG W ZNS AFT 00Z TNGT BUT NOT TIL
AFT 06Z AVRS MCH OF VT.  TIMG OF HVIEST RAFL 06-12Z ACRS RGN AS
BEST LL CNVGC AND QG FORCG COME TOGETHER ACRS FA FURG THIS TIME.

AS LOW PUSHES N OF RGN AND OCCLN MVS THRU 12-15Z DRY SLOT WL MOV IN
RSLTG IN LULL IN PCPN BUT WRAPARND MSTR/SHWRS WL MOV BACK IN DURG
AFTN...ESP W ZNS.  AS UPR LOW LIFTS NWD ACRS RGN...ATMOS DESTABILIZES
AND CANT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT DID NOT MNTN ATTM.  QPF 0.5-1.5" WITH
MAX LKLY ACRS NNY ALTHO SCNDRY MAX PSBL LWR CT VLY WHERE PSBL TRIPLE
PT DEVT WL ENHANCE LL CNVGC IN THIS RGN ALG WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW.

WIND IS A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS STORM.  MAIN WIND THREAT TNGT WL
BE ALG W SLOPES AS SSE LLJ INCREASES TO 50-60 KTS DOWN TO 3-4K FT.
STGST WIND ABV INVRN SO WUD NOT XPCT FULL MIXG OF THESE WINDS BUT
40-50 KTS 2-3K FT WHERE MIXG MORE LKLY.  WL GO WITH ADVSY TNGT FOR
PSBL G50 MPH.  WND SHD SUBSIDE AFT RA BEGINS LT TNGT.

FOR WED...MAIN WIND THREAT WL BE ACRS W ZNS WED AFTN INTO WED NGT AS
DEEP LOW MVS N OF RGN WITH VRY STG WLY GRAD DVLPG.  60+ KT LLJ DOWN
TO 2-3K FT AT MSS/SLK LTR WED AFTN WITH CAA PRODUCING FVRBL MIXG
PROFILE.  ONE NEG FACTOR TO WATCH FOR IS HOW SATURATED LLVLS ARE
WHICH CUD CUT DOWN ON MIXG.  HAV GONE WITH HI WIND WATCH FOR ST
LAW VLY/ADRNDCKS FOR G60 MPH AND MAY NEED ADVSY ACRS VT ZNS.

FA WL RMN UNDER INFLUENCE OF BROAD UL TROF WED NGT-FRI AS SERIES OF
S/WVS ROTATE THRU FLOW.  SHWRS PSBL AT ANY TIME SO HAV CONTD CHC
SHWRS WED NGT/THU WITH SNW SHWRS PSBL ADRNDCKS...BUT KEPT THU
NGT/FRI DRY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREV FCST.  SOME LK EFFECT LKLY BUT
SHD RMN S OF RGN WITH WNW FLOW.

&&

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN DURING THE DAY 4 TO 7 TIME FRAME
IS AMPLITUDE OF LONGWAV E PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
TIMING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
GFS RUN STILL SUGGEST FLOW WILL BE FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
KEEP COASTAL DEVELOPMENT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS...THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF FEATURES AT THIS RANGE AND THE IMPACT CONVECTION COULD HAVE ON
THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK LEAVE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
CHC POPS FRI NT INTO SAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH THAT HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES...THOUGH
ANYTHING SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. AFTERWARDS LARGE CLOSED LOW EVOLVES
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDS EXPECTED.
DID MENTION THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MON NT INTO TUE AS SOME
EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY TNGT VT016>019.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH WED AFTN AND EVNG NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
EXTENDED...JMG







FXUS61 KBTV 141957
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

SHORT TERM (TNGT-FRI)...MDLS IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH TRACK OF DEEPENING
LOW FM ERN LKS TNGT...THEN DOWN ST LAW VLY WED WITH SFC PRES NR 975
MB BY 18Z WED N OF NNY.  VRY DYNAMIC SYS WITH NEG TILT UPR TROF/LOW
LIFTG NE ACRS FA WED.  RAFL OVRSPRDG W ZNS AFT 00Z TNGT BUT NOT TIL
AFT 06Z AVRS MCH OF VT.  TIMG OF HVIEST RAFL 06-12Z ACRS RGN AS
BEST LL CNVGC AND QG FORCG COME TOGETHER ACRS FA FURG THIS TIME.

AS LOW PUSHES N OF RGN AND OCCLN MVS THRU 12-15Z DRY SLOT WL MOV IN
RSLTG IN LULL IN PCPN BUT WRAPARND MSTR/SHWRS WL MOV BACK IN DURG
AFTN...ESP W ZNS.  AS UPR LOW LIFTS NWD ACRS RGN...ATMOS DESTABILIZES
AND CANT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT DID NOT MNTN ATTM.  QPF 0.5-1.5" WITH
MAX LKLY ACRS NNY ALTHO SCNDRY MAX PSBL LWR CT VLY WHERE PSBL TRIPLE
PT DEVT WL ENHANCE LL CNVGC IN THIS RGN ALG WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW.

WIND IS A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS STORM.  MAIN WIND THREAT TNGT WL
BE ALG W SLOPES AS SSE LLJ INCREASES TO 50-60 KTS DOWN TO 3-4K FT.
STGST WIND ABV INVRN SO WUD NOT XPCT FULL MIXG OF THESE WINDS BUT
40-50 KTS 2-3K FT WHERE MIXG MORE LKLY.  WL GO WITH ADVSY TNGT FOR
PSBL G50 MPH.  WND SHD SUBSIDE AFT RA BEGINS LT TNGT.

FOR WED...MAIN WIND THREAT WL BE ACRS W ZNS WED AFTN INTO WED NGT AS
DEEP LOW MVS N OF RGN WITH VRY STG WLY GRAD DVLPG.  60+ KT LLJ DOWN
TO 2-3K FT AT MSS/SLK LTR WED AFTN WITH CAA PRODUCING FVRBL MIXG
PROFILE.  ONE NEG FACTOR TO WATCH FOR IS HOW SATURATED LLVLS ARE
WHICH CUD CUT DOWN ON MIXG.  HAV GONE WITH HI WIND WATCH FOR ST
LAW VLY/ADRNDCKS FOR G60 MPH AND MAY NEED ADVSY ACRS VT ZNS.

FA WL RMN UNDER INFLUENCE OF BROAD UL TROF WED NGT-FRI AS SERIES OF
S/WVS ROTATE THRU FLOW.  SHWRS PSBL AT ANY TIME SO HAV CONTD CHC
SHWRS WED NGT/THU WITH SNW SHWRS PSBL ADRNDCKS...BUT KEPT THU
NGT/FRI DRY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREV FCST.  SOME LK EFFECT LKLY BUT
SHD RMN S OF RGN WITH WNW FLOW.

&&

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN DURING THE DAY 4 TO 7 TIME FRAME
IS AMPLITUDE OF LONGWAV E PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
TIMING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
GFS RUN STILL SUGGEST FLOW WILL BE FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
KEEP COASTAL DEVELOPMENT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS...THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF FEATURES AT THIS RANGE AND THE IMPACT CONVECTION COULD HAVE ON
THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK LEAVE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
CHC POPS FRI NT INTO SAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH THAT HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES...THOUGH
ANYTHING SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. AFTERWARDS LARGE CLOSED LOW EVOLVES
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDS EXPECTED.
DID MENTION THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MON NT INTO TUE AS SOME
EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY TNGT VT016>019.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH WED AFTN AND EVNG NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
EXTENDED...JMG




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

127
ASUS51 KBTV 151005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  55  51  86 SE21G37   29.04F
MONTPELIER     RAIN      53  50  89 SE13G21   29.19F
MORRISVILLE    HVY RAIN  53  50  89 VRB7G21   29.17F FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     53  50  89 SE9G18    29.20F
RUTLAND        MOCLDY    55  54  94 SE24G39   28.98F
SPRINGFIELD    RAIN      56  54  93 E9G17     29.07F
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  59  55  87 SE20G28   28.98F
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      5:00PM, Tuesday October 14, 2003
                      STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: PJ Cioffi
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tuesday Night: The long stretch of beautiful weather will come to an
   end tonight. Skies will be mostly cloudy heading into the overnight
   hours. Rain showers will begin in the early morning hours on
   Wednesday. Low temperatures will be 43-48. Winds will be from the
   southeast 5-15MPH with highers gusts possible in the higher terrain.

   Wednesday: It will be a very soggy,windy, and chilly day in the
   Kingdom. Rain will be heavy at times until late afternoon. Scattered
   showers will persist until late evening. Highs will be 59-64. Winds
   will be from the southwest at 10-20MPH with higher gusts.

   Wednesday Night: Scattered showers will decrease in coverage and
   intensity during the overnight hours. Lows will be 33-38. Continued
   windy as winds become northwesterly at 10-20MPH.

   Thursday: Much drier than Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies with a chance
   of rain or snow showers. Highs will be 43-48. Winds will be
   northwesterly at 5-10MPH.

                             Extended Forecast

   Friday: A damp and cool day. Partly cloudy with highs 47-52. Lows
   25-30.

   Saturday: Another chilly day. Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
   showers. Highs 40-45 and lows 30-35.

   Sunday: Cool and mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45 and lows 25-30.

                            Forecast Discussion

   After a beautiful stretch of warm weather the past few days, a very
   strong low pressure area will move through the region over the next
   12-24 hours. The system will strengthen as it approaches and drop
   large amounts of precipitation over the northeastern part of the
   country. Northeast VT can expect about an inch of rain to fall with
   locally higher amounts. The strength of the low pressure will also
   cause some strong winds in the area. Tonight will definitely be a good
   night to watch some playoff baseball on TV while sipping on a cup of
   hot chocolate. After the departure of the low pressure system
   Wednesday night, strong cold air advection will take place behind the
   system. This will help create instability in the atmosphere and will
   cause cloudiness over the next few days. In response, it will feel
   damp and cold in the area. Unlike last week, there is no warm-up in
   site. There is still time to enjoy some of the foliage. Just be sure
   to carry an umbrella with you. Have a safe and happy weekend!

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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