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Expires:200310202000;;339042
FPUS51 KBTV 200754
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-202000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2003

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. HIGH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE EVENING ON. EVENING
LOW AROUND 40...THEN TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 50. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 35 TO 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH 35 TO 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S AND HIGH IN THE MID
40S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE MID 30S
AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 200846
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
446 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2003

CURRENTLY...MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDS ACROSS THE FA AT THIS HOUR.
WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...RADIATIONAL COOLING IN FULL FORCE
WITH TEMPS AREA WIDE IN THE 20S. SOME WAA CIRRUS JUST BEGINNING TO
AFFECT SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS A PRECURSOR
TO TONIGHTS' WX MAKER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...BROAD 1025 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE ACROSS AREA
THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LATER TODAY. WAA PATTERN TO COMMENCE LATER TODAY AS RETURN
FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST. LATEST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE AMPLE
BNDRY LYR MIXING TO NEAR 850 HPA...AND WILL ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S VALUES. BY EARLY EVENING VIGOROUS
EARLY FALL CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIVING QUICKLY SE TO BEGIN AFFECTING
FAR WESTERN ZONES. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...WILL OPT TO BUMP
POPS UPWARD FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING IMPRESSIVE WAA PATTERN ACROSS CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE POSITION ON LEFT NOSE OF 50 KT
MID LEVEL JET ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND 850-500 Q-VEC CONVERGENCE ARGUE FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AREA WIDE.
SFC LOW TO THEN PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MORNING RAIN GIVING WAY TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS VERY TRICKY ON TUE...AS TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW AND POTENTIAL DRY SLOT MAY CUT OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE GFS GUIDANCE. WILL GO CLOSER TO
FWC/MET VALUES HERE. NONETHELESS A BLUSTERY AND SHOWERY EARLY FALL
DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SFC LOW EXITS QUICKLY INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE BY TUE EVENING WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. 850 HPA TEMPS
TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY 00Z...BUT LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR AS INDICATED BY
1000-850 HPA THICKNESS PROFILES LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND WILL GO MAINLY SHOWERY IN THE EVENING...AND
THEN TRANSITION PRECIP TO SHRASN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA CAMPS ON EVOLUTION
OF 500 HPA PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WX FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. ETA
FOCUSES MUCH OF ITS' ENERGY AND PRECIP NEAR A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO THE MEAN EASTERN TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
STATES...AND THUS MAINTAINS A COOL AND DRY FCST. THE GFS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD...AND ARGUES FOR A COOL AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FAVOR LATTER SOLN FOR NOW AND THIS
AGREES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHRASN
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

AFTERWARDS(FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY)...REST OF EXTENDED UNCHANGED WITH 00Z
GFS RUNS SUPPORTING CURRENT THINKING OF A DRY FRI/SAT PERIOD WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS MEAN TROUGH
EXITS EASTBOUND. MILDER TEMPS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN BY SATURDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

$$

JMG





FXUS61 KBTV 200154
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DISIPPATING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ATTM. EXPECTING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS. WINDS HAVE ALSO
DIMINISHED TO NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...SO
WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS. SATELLITE LOOP
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO AND MICHIGAN
STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS LLVL
WAA/MOISTURE DEVELOPS ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MODELS CONT TO BE 3 TO 6
HRS QUICKER WITH MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM. MESO-
ETA SHOWS STRONG 850-700MB FG FORCING WITH LLVL WAA AND GOOD 850-
500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCES APPROACHING SLV BY 21Z MONDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM SATL/RADAR TRENDS WL INCLUDE CHC POPS WESTERN
CWA. TEMP FCST MONDAY WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN STRONG LLVL TEMP
GRADIENT/CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA. 85H TEMPS START NEAR -5C MONDAY MORNING
BUT QUICKLY WARM TO 1C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SW SFC FLOW
DEVELOPING. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILE AND LLVL WAA WL MENTION L50S SLV TO
M/U40S NE KINGDOM.

MONDAY NITE-TUESDAY...MODELS IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH TAKING POTENT
5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM NORTHERN LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND BY 00Z WEDS. LATEST GFS NOW SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WITH SFC LOW...BUT CONTS TO PLACE CWA UNDER
FAVORABLE FORCING. STRONG LLVL WAA WL ENHANCE BAROCLINIC ZN/FG
FORCING ACRS OUR CWA MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG ULVL JET/DIVERGENCE AND GOOD MID LVL MOISTURE/LIFT WL INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY. 85H TEMPS AOA 0C AND ALL
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT LIQUID...THEREFORE WL MENTION -RW
ATTM. ALSO...STRONG SFC GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY. WL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WL BE IN THE M/U30S CT VALLEY TO M40S CPV/SLV FOR MONDAY NITE.
TUESDAY...85H TEMPS WARM TO 6-8C SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE M/U 50S.
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN ASSOCIATED WITH DRY SLOT.

WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS NE CONUS AS LLVL CAA CONTS
BEHIND SFC COLD FRNT. 85H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -7C ACRS OUR CWA...
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U30S TO M40S. LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND CHC FOR MTN -SW AND
VALLEY -RW. CRNT FCST HAS THIS SITUATION COVERED WELL AND LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT IS NEEDED ATTM.

EXTENDED...LONG RANGE TRENDS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.  ALSO...SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 800 FEET AND
WILL DELINEATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON THIS.  SINCE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...FEEL IT WILL ONLY LAST
INTO THE EVENING AND THEN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  WILL REFLECT THIS
CHANGE IN THE GRIDS.  ALSO...FEEL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM TOO
MUCH AND THINK HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. UPPER
TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST ON FRIDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...FEEL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS RIGHT OVER THE
REGION. FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  AS A RESULT...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY AND THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BUT
SUNDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION..WGH
LONG TERM...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 191743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003

FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS FOR SHORT TERM FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHCS MON
NITE/TUESDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOISTURE/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM
QUICKLY MOVING OFF SNE ATTM. MEANWHILE...AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTS
WITH TROF ACRS NE CONUS AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. NEXT S/W...STRONG 25H JET...AND MOISTURE LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL CANADA CONTS TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WL EFFECT OUR CWA MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY. BASED
ON RAOB/VAPOR TRENDS MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH ULVL FEATURES ACRS
DATA RICH US. BOTH GFS/ETA INITIALIZED OKAY WITH 85H TEMPS OVER NE
AND WITH LLVL WAA PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SHOW VERY
STRONG WAA ACRS MIDWEST...WHICH WL MAKE TEMP FCSTING DIFFICULT
MONDAY NITE/TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...PRES CHANGES INDICATES HIGH PRES
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDING INTO OUR FA WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEATHER RADAR SHOWS PRECIP HAS STAYED SOUTH OF
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS NE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
PRES BUILD INTO OUR CWA. BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES...ALONG WITH 1000-
850MB PROGGES SHOW RH VALUES DECREASING ACRS OUR CWA TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLRING SKIES WL PRODUCE TEMPS
NEAR 20F SLK TO M/U20 CPV. MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS LLVL WAA/MOISTURE DEVELOPS ACRS OUR WESTERN
CWA. MODELS CONT TO BE 3 TO 6 HRS QUICKER WITH MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM. MESO-ETA SHOWS STRONG 850-700MB FG
FORCING WITH LLVL WAA AND GOOD 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCES
APPROACHING SLV BY 21Z MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM
SATL/RADAR TRENDS WL INCLUDE CHC POPS WESTERN CWA. TEMP FCST MONDAY
WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN STRONG LLVL TEMP GRADIENT/CLOUDS ACRS OUR
CWA. 85H TEMPS START NEAR -5C MONDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY WARM TO 1C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SW SFC FLOW DEVELOPING. GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILE AND LLVL WAA WL MENTION L50S SLV TO M/U40S NE KINGDOM.

MONDAY NITE-TUESDAY...MODELS IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH TAKING POTENT
5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM NORTHERN LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND BY 00Z WEDS. LATEST GFS NOW SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WITH SFC LOW...BUT CONTS TO PLACE CWA UNDER
FAVORABLE FORCING. STRONG LLVL WAA WL ENHANCE BAROCLINIC ZN/FG
FORCING ACRS OUR CWA MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG ULVL JET/DIVERGENCE AND GOOD MID LVL MOISTURE/LIFT WL INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY. 85H TEMPS AOA 0C AND ALL
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT LIQUID...THEREFORE WL MENTION -RW
ATTM. ALSO...STRONG SFC GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY. WL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WL BE IN THE M/U30S CT VALLEY TO M40S CPV/SLV FOR MONDAY NITE.
TUESDAY...85H TEMPS WARM TO 6-8C SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE M/U 50S.
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN ASSOCIATED WITH DRY SLOT.

WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS NE CONUS AS LLVL CAA CONTS
BEHIND SFC COLD FRNT. 85H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -7C ACRS OUR CWA...
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U30S TO M40S. LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND CHC FOR MTN -SW AND
VALLEY -RW. CRNT FCST HAS THIS SITUATION COVERED WELL AND LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT IS NEEDED ATTM.

EXTENDED...LONG RANGE TRENDS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.  ALSO...SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 800 FEET AND
WILL DELINEATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON THIS.  SINCE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...FEEL IT WILL ONLY LAST
INTO THE EVENING AND THEN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  WILL REFLECT THIS
CHANGE IN THE GRIDS.  ALSO...FEEL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM TOO
MUCH AND THINK HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. UPPER
TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST ON FRIDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...FEEL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS RIGHT OVER THE
REGION. FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  AS A RESULT...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY AND THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BUT
SUNDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EVENSON




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

653
ASUS51 KBTV 201005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     27  25  92 CALM      30.14R
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     25  21  85 CALM      30.15S
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     24  21  88 CALM      30.14S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     24  22  91 CALM      30.13R
RUTLAND        CLEAR     27  25  93 SE6       30.15S
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     24  23  96 CALM      30.17S
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     27  25  92 CALM      30.15F
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      5:00 PM, Sunday October 19, 2003
                     STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Josh Smith
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: Partly cloudy becoming clear toward morning with fog
   developing late in some areas. Low in the lower 20s. Winds will be
   calm.

   Monday: Mostly clear becoming partly cloudy toward afternoon. High
   around 50. West wind at 5 to 10 MPH.

   Monday Night: Partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy toward
   evening. Rain and snow showers likely troughout the evening. Low in
   the mid 30s. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Chance
   for precipitation 60 percent.

   Tuesday: Rain and snow showers likely early then becoming partly
   cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers toward evening. High
   close to 50. Low in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

                             Extended Forecast

   Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance for rain or snow shower
   throughout the day. High in the mid 40s. Low around 35. Chance of
   precipitation 40 percent.

   Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers
   throughout the day tappering off toward evening. High in the mid 40s.
   Low in the lower 30s. Chance for precipitation 40 percent.

   Friday: Partly cloudy. High in the mid 40s. Low close to 30.

                            Forecast Discussion

   A strong upper level ridge as set up over the central United States
   causing unusually high temperatures over that part of the country.
   Over New England there is an upper level trough set up with the jet
   stream to our south which is bring in colder temperatures and cloud
   conditions. Visible imagery shows a break in the cloudy conditions to
   the east which should move in tonight causing the temperatures to drop
   off over the forecast area. Expect low temperatures to be in the 20s.
   With the ridge over the central U.S. and a trough over the New England
   area the jet stream will be set up from western Canada flowing over
   New England. Air temperatures along with rain and/or snow showers from
   a clipper system will be brought down over the Northeast Kingdom by
   jet stream late Monday night. Rain and Snow showers from this system
   will persist through out most of Tuesday and Wednesday periods into
   the early Thursday period. Snow accumulations should be minimal if any
   and will most likely be confined to high elevations with the biggest
   threat for snow being Wednesday and Thursday. The models are keeping
   the upper level trough over the forecast area promoting instability
   driven precipitation. With cooler temperature behind the clipper
   system moving out of the area Wednesday evening tied along with
   instability driven showers will give a greater possibility for snow on
   those two days.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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