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Expires:200310212000;;359942
FPUS51 KBTV 210804
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-212000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
404 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003

.TODAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN UNTIL MID-MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING HIGH AROUND 50...THEN TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING
NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN INCH OR
LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. NORTH WIND 5
TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER
WITH A HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW
AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED
COLD WITH A HIGH 35 TO 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON.
LOW IN THE MID 30S AND HIGH IN THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 210852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
452 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003

CURRENTLY...LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AT THIS HOUR WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
HAVING DIED OUT ACROSS VT...BUT REFIRING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
DEEPENING 993 HPA SFC LOW NEAR TORONTO. TEMPS GENRERALLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AREA WIDE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED LOW CROSSES NORTHERN NY/VT DURING
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN EXITS INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY EARLY EVENING. BEST 850-700 HPA WAA...850-500 HPA Q-VEC
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS EAST OF AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...THUS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST SOUNDING PROFILES DO MAINTAIN
MARGINALLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNTIL MID MORNING...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC THUNDER EARLY. FAVORABLE N TO NW MOIST WRAPAROUND FLOW
TO THEN AFFECT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS A GOOD BET. BY LATER TODAY...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY AS POTENT SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON NOSE OF POWERFUL
140+ KT 250 HPA JET ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRARIES DIVES INTO BASE OF
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. AS A RESULT THE 500 HPA FLOW CLOSES OFF
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CAPTURES DEPARTING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
PROFILES DROPPING TO BELOW 1300 DM BY LATE TONIGHT ARGUE FOR CHC OF
SHRASN FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES ACROSS AREA AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
AREA. COLD 850 HPA TEMPS OF -4 TO -8C AND MARGINALLY COLD 1000-850
THICKNESS PROFILES ARGUE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS. P-TYPE WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN
ALL THE WAY TO THE VALLEYS FLOORS AT TIMES...ESP WED NT. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO GREEN MTN BARRIER AND WEAK 700-500 HPA
WAA ALONG WITH MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE TO 15K FT ALL ARGUE FOR
POTENTIAL FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MTN ZONES. WILL WAIT AND
SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY ONWARDS...NO REAL CHANGES TO THINKING HERE...AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BRDIGES ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS AND CORRESPONDING THICKNESS PROFILES RISE CONSIDERABLY
PAVING THE WAY FOR FOR A NICE FALL WEEKEND AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. LATEST EXTENDED 00Z GFS RUNS
DO INDICATE THAT FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT AREA ON SUNDAY MAY GET
DELAYED IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. AS A RESULT CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE PERIOD...DELAYING ANY CHC OF PRECIP OR A RETURN TO COOLER
TEMPS UNTIL LATE MONDAY. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THIS SOLN AND ENSEMBLE RUNS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

JMG





FXUS61 KBTV 210338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003

QUICK UPDATE TO THROW IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TONIGHT AS ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON NOSE OF 60KT
850 HPA JET. LATEST LAPS SOUNDING AT KMSS INDICATING PARCELS LIFTED
FROM 700 HPA LEVEL SHOULD EXPERIENCE UNINHIBITED LIFT TO EL AND THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH LATEST RADAR RETURNS.  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION(S)
BELOW...

JMH

RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST ATTM...WITH ANOTHER BATCH ACROSS ONTARIO APPROACHING THE
ST LAWRENCE VLY ATTM. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ALSO MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION IN SOME OF THE ZONES AS
WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...

TUESDAY...SFC LOW SLIDES ACRS CWA WITH BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
85/925MB TEMP PROFILE SHOWS LARGE TEMPS GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. NE FLOW ACRS SLV WL KEEP MSS NEAR 45F...WHILE CPV GETS INTO
DRY SLOT AND WL WARM INTO THE M/U 50S AHEAD OF FROPA. FRNT MOVES ACRS
SLV AROUND 15Z...CPV AT 18Z...AND THRU CWA BY 00Z. FEEL ENOUGH
LEFTOVER MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE AROUND TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
TUESDAY NITE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND FRNT...THEREFORE WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS. THERMAL PROFILE AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

WEDS-THURSDAY...MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION/STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS THRU THURSDAY.
WL CONT TO MENTION -RW/-SW ACRS CWA AS COOL POOL ALOFT AND
SEVERAL 5H VORTS ROTATE THRU CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AND LLVL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WEDS INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHCS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS.

EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE REGION.  AS A
RESULT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION.  THUS GOING FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOKS REAL GOOD AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD MAKE
THIS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  OTHERWISE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO BACKING UPPER FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  ON SUNDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP.  THUS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  MRF ENSEMBLES SHOW NO
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION OF UPPER TROUGH AND WHEN
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  AGREE WITH PREEPD DISCUSSION
THAT ECMWF HAS BETTER HANDLE ON LONG RANGE AND THIS SUGGESTS COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.  AS A
RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED A BIT AND FEEL BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY.  WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
+8C AIR TO 850 MB.  THUS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WGH
LONG TERM...EVENSON







FXUS61 KBTV 210145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003

RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST ATTM...WITH ANOTHER BATCH ACROSS ONTARIO APPROACHING THE
ST LAWRENCE VLY ATTM. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ALSO MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION IN SOME OF THE ZONES AS
WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...

TUESDAY...SFC LOW SLIDES ACRS CWA WITH BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
85/925MB TEMP PROFILE SHOWS LARGE TEMPS GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. NE FLOW ACRS SLV WL KEEP MSS NEAR 45F...WHILE CPV GETS INTO
DRY SLOT AND WL WARM INTO THE M/U 50S AHEAD OF FROPA. FRNT MOVES ACRS
SLV AROUND 15Z...CPV AT 18Z...AND THRU CWA BY 00Z. FEEL ENOUGH
LEFTOVER MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE AROUND TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
TUESDAY NITE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND FRNT...THEREFORE WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS. THERMAL PROFILE AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

WEDS-THURSDAY...MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION/STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS THRU THURSDAY.
WL CONT TO MENTION -RW/-SW ACRS CWA AS COOL POOL ALOFT AND
SEVERAL 5H VORTS ROTATE THRU CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AND LLVL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WEDS INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHCS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS.

EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE REGION.  AS A
RESULT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION.  THUS GOING FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOKS REAL GOOD AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD MAKE
THIS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  OTHERWISE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO BACKING UPPER FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  ON SUNDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP.  THUS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  MRF ENSEMBLES SHOW NO
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION OF UPPER TROUGH AND WHEN
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  AGREE WITH PREEPD DISCUSSION
THAT ECMWF HAS BETTER HANDLE ON LONG RANGE AND THIS SUGGESTS COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.  AS A
RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED A BIT AND FEEL BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY.  WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
+8C AIR TO 850 MB.  THUS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WGH
LONG TERM...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 201808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
206 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003

FCST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND
UPSLOPE EVENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT VIGOROUS 5H VORT OVER GREAT LAKES ATTM MOVING
TOWARD OUR CWA. TROF ACRS NE CONUS HAS FLATTEN WITH WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT S/W OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. MODELS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH 5H WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE
ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. THESE JETS
COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA WL ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES/PRECIP ACRS
OUR CWA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...BASED ON RAOB DATA ETA INITIALIZED
SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT WITH WAA ACRS UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND CAA IN CENTRAL CANADA BEHIND SYSTEM. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
HIGH PRES ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR MQT.
GREATEST PRES FALLS SUGGEST SYSTEM WL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. WAA CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED INTO MOST OF OUR CWA ATTM
WITH TEMPS IN THE M40S TO NEAR 50F.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING POTENT 5H
VORT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z WEDS. STRONG 850-700MB FG ASSOCIATED
WITH LLVL WAA AND GOOD 7H OMEGA FIELDS WITH DUEL JET STRUCTURE WL
CONT TO MENTION CAT POPS. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN CWA HAS LIMITED
FORCING/MOISTURE...THEREFORE WL TRIM POPS BACK TO LIKELY. THERMAL
PROFILE SHOWS 85H TEMPS AOA 0C AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS PATTERN
INDICATES PRECIP WL BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...GIVEN 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C
ACRS NE KINGDOM PRECIP COULD HAVE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN.
TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP WL RANGE FROM M30S NE KINGDOM TO L/M40S
SLV/CPV. TUESDAY...SFC LOW SLIDES ACRS CWA WITH BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL ADVECTION MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 85/925MB TEMP PROFILE SHOWS LARGE TEMPS
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. NE FLOW ACRS SLV WL KEEP MSS NEAR
45F...WHILE CPV GETS INTO DRY SLOT AND WL WARM INTO THE M/U 50S
AHEAD OF FROPA. FRNT MOVES ACRS SLV AROUND 15Z...CPV AT 18Z...AND
THRU CWA BY 00Z. FEEL ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE AROUND
TO MENTION LIKELY POPS. TUESDAY NITE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND
FRNT...THEREFORE WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS. THERMAL PROFILE AND
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO WET SNOW...
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDS-THURSDAY...MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION/STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS THRU THURSDAY.
WL CONT TO MENTION -RW/-SW ACRS CWA AS COOL POOL ALOFT AND
SEVERAL 5H VORTS ROTATE THRU CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AND LLVL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WEDS INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BEST CHCS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS.

EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE REGION.  AS A
RESULT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION.  THUS GOING FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOKS REAL GOOD AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD MAKE
THIS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  OTHERWISE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO BACKING UPPER FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  ON SUNDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP.  THUS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  MRF ENSEMBLES SHOW NO
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION OF UPPER TROUGH AND WHEN
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  AGREE WITH PREEPD DISCUSSION
THAT ECMWF HAS BETTER HANDLE ON LONG RANGE AND THIS SUGGESTS COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.  AS A
RESULT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED A BIT AND FEEL BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY.  WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
+8C AIR TO 850 MB.  THUS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EVENSON




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

355
ASUS51 KBTV 211005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     RAIN      49  45  86 SE12G18   29.49F FOG
MONTPELIER     RAIN      41  39  93 S6        29.59F FOG
MORRISVILLE    RAIN      39  39 100 CALM      29.56F FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     39  39 100 CALM      29.59F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    50  39  66 SE16      29.54F
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    42  39  89 CALM      29.61F
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    54  46  74 E5        29.56F
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      5:00PM, Monday October 20, 2003
                   STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Anthony Seibel
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: This evening will be cool with rain showers developing around
   11pm. Low temperatures will be between 30 and 35 degrees with
   southwest winds at 5-10mph, shifting to the southeast winds by
   midnight.

   Tuesday: Rain showers will be across the region making for a rather
   wet Tuesday. Mild high temperatures in the range of 48-54 degrees will
   keep most folks inside for the day. Winds will be from the south at
   10-15mph.

   Tuesday Night: Rain showers will carry into the early portion of the
   evening, changing to a chance of snow showers for the later portions
   of the night. Lows will be in the range of 32-36 degrees with
   northwest winds at 5-15mph.

   Wednesday: A very brisk day is to be expected. Highs are going to be
   quite cool between 34-40 degrees. Snow or rain showers will be seen
   across the region, otherwise skies will be mostly cloudy. Evening low
   temperatures will be between 28-34 degrees with a chance of snow
   showers through the evening.

                             Extended Forecast

   Thursday: Cold with a chance of snow or rain showers for the day and
   evening. High 34-38, Low 23-27.

   Friday: Partly cloudy, perhaps the nicest day of the week! High 44-48,
   Low 30-35.

   Saturday: A great day to start the weekend. Partly cloudy skies with
   highs nearing 50 degrees and overnight lows remaining cool in the
   lower 30's.

                            Forecast Discussion

   A cold front currently over the great lakes region will be moving its
   way across New England tomorrow. The results of this front will be
   seen nearly immediately as daytime high temperatures plummet for the
   middle portions of the week. Rain and snow showers will be seen, with
   a much stronger chance of snow showers during the evening hours as
   temperatures fall across the region. High pressure will be coming in
   not a moment too soon to help clear skies for the Friday and into the
   weekend. High temperatures will climb back into a normal range and
   make for a very enjoyable autumn weekend. Enjoy the wonderful weather
   Saturday in East Charleston as the Vermont Leadership Center hosts the
   Ten Mile History Tour. For more information, check out
   http://www.vtlc.org

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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