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Scott asks (maybe rhetorically):
>Anyone ever figure out how accurate those Farmer's Almanacs are?

I remember reading a short article about 5 years ago that superficially
analyzed the FA predictions for the prior 70 or so years. The came up with
about a 50% accuracy rate - a.k.a. coin toss accuracy. The article also
pointed out that if you predicted that tomorrow will be about the same as
today, you'd achieve, on average, a 72% accuracy rate.

Once again, an elegant hypothesis skewered by ugly fact.

-marc


www.mchrusch.com
Direct link to my weblog page:
http://home.earthlink.net/~mchrusch/blog/blogger.html

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