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Expires:200310232100;;400384
FPUS51 KBTV 230802
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003


VTZ006-008-010-017-018-232100-
EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...MONTPELIER...RANDOLPH...STOWE...
UNDERHILL
400 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003

.TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH 35 TO 40. NORTHWEST
WIND AT 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW 25 TO 30. NORTHWEST WIND AT AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 45 TO 50. NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 25 TO 30.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE LOWER
50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW 40 TO 45 AND
HIGH NEAR 60.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND
HIGH IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 230707
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
307 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003

STORM SYS TO MOVE UP ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HI PRESS TO
MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE...THEN ACRS THE FA
FROM THE WEST ON FRI/FRI NITE. CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION
ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE.

00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U20S TO
AROUND 40F TODAY WITH N-NW SFC WINDS AT AROUND 10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS
ARE 35-45F TODAY. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED
ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND TONITE (LEAST ACRS THE ST LAW VLY TODAY). PW
VALUES TO BE AOB 0.5" ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO TONITE ACCORDING TO
RUC AND NH/NY IPW DATA. RUC SHOWS SN ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FA TODAY
(WITH MAYBE SOME RA IN THE CHAMP VLY). QPF TO BE BLO 0.25" TODAY...
WITH BLO 2.5" OF SN (MOSTLY ACRS THE NE KINGDOM). BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC
SHOWS BEST PCPN OCCURRING ACRS NE VT ATTM.

WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN WK WAA
TO DEVELOP ON FRI/FRI NITE...WITH GOOD WAA ON SAT. H85 TEMPS TO GO
POSITIVE ACRS THE FA ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO
LINGER ACRS THE FA ON FRI. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
ACRS THE FA ON SAT/SAT NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA
TODAY AND EARLY TONITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY...
THEN MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE AGAIN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST LATE ON
FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AROUND
0.75" ON SAT/SAT NITE.

FACTORS AGAINST A DECENT UPSLOPE SN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACRS
THE FA INCLUDE LOW DELTA THETA-E VALUES BLO H85...WK H925 FLOW...POOR
POSN OF H5 CUTOFF LOW...AND WK CAA. FACTORS LOOKING DECENT FOR
UPSLOPE SN TODAY INCLUDE GOOD NW FLOW AT H85...PLENTY OF LOW-LVL
MSTR...HI LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND POTNL LENGTH OF THE EVENT
(> 12HRS). WILL CONT WITH SOME NW FLOW/ELEVATION PCPN ZONE SPLITS FOR
THIS FCST PACKAGE AND KEEP ANY SN AMTS BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
PCPN SHOULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONITE AND TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN ACRS THE FA LOOKS TO BE OF THE
LIQUID VARIETY AND BE SOMETIME ON SAT NITE/SUN. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE L-M40S ON FRI. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

MURRAY





FXUS61 KBTV 230012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
810 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2003

UPDATE/CRNT: DEEP NEG-TILT TROF GOING THRU ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSIFICATION STAGE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH STG S/W ROUNDING THE BASE
OF TROF AND CLOSED UPR LOW FORMING. NEW SFC LOW DVLPG S/E OF 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AND WL STAY E OF BENCHMARK AND THEN MV N INTO NOVA SCOTIA.

ANY/ALL PCPN ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WL BE MID-LVL DYNAMICALLY
INDUCED AND HAVE ALRDY SEEN SOME OF THAT THIS AFTN ACRS SRN VT/CAP
DISTRICT/ WRN MA WITH S/W ROUNDING BASE OF TROF. ALSO...SOME H7 FGEN
PCPN FORMING ACRS NH AND SEE THIS PCPN BCMG MORE ORGANIZED AS CLOSED
LOW DVLPS DEEPER AND SLOWLY PUSHES H7 FGEN FIELD TO NNW WITH TIME.

NEG-TILT UPR LOW MVG ACRS FA ENUF FOR LARGE SCALE UVM BUT LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE DUE TO FACT NO INITIAL PCPN ASSOC WITH SFC LOW MVG
ACRS FA TDY HASN'T "MOISTENED" ATMOS...THUS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
-SHSN/-SHRA ACRS FA. ALSO...WRN SLOPES NOT INVOLVED ATTM AS WNDS ARE
PARALLEL (N) BUT THAT WL BACK TO NNW BY MIDNGT.

ALSO...LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS NO SHSN ACTVTY ACRS ST LWRNC VLY
CANADA WHICH IS OUR TYPICAL BREEDING GROUND FOR SHSN ACTVTY IN NW VT
(ESP CHMPL VLY)...BUT THAT MAY DVLP TOWARD MIDNGT AND AFTERWARDS AS
META SHWS H7 FGEN FIELD MVG FM NRN NH INTO THIS SOURCE REGION.

SO...ATTM IT APPEARS THE MAIN AFFECTED REGION FOR -SN/-SHSN WL BE
NE VT AND PER BRIEFING WITH DAYSHIFT FCSTR WL LKLY BRK OUT NE KNGDOM
FM CRNT GROUPING AND HIT THEM THE HARDEST. WS-ETA PCPN COVERAGE LOOKS
VRY GUD AND WL LEAN ON FOR SPECIFICS INCLDG ~ 0.25" IN ESSEX/ORLEANS.

SHSH SHLD DVLP AFT MIDNGT IN NRN CHMPL VLY( ESP WRN SLOPES) BUT BCM
MORE PRONOUNCED BFR DAYBRK...THEN AS FLOWS BACKS MORE NW BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO WRN SLOPES BY MIDDAY THU.  SNOW GROWTH LAYER STL RATHER
HIGH (ARD 10K) AND DOESN'T MATCH UP WITH BEST UVM SO NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING SGNFCT.

PRVS FCST HAS MUCH OF THIS COVERED...BUT WL DO SOME ZONE SPLITTING
(ESP NE VT) TO HIGHLIGHT AREA OF MAIN CONCERN.

WORKS AVBL ARD 9 PM.

SLW

...PRVS DISC...
MAINLY CLDY SKIES ACRS FA THIS PM...WITH SOME AREAS OF SNOW/RAIN
SHWRS...ESPECIALLY IN SC VT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING NO MAJOR
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX FEATURES WHICH WILL IMPACT FA OVER NEXT 2
DAYS...BUT THEY ARE ALL DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUN WITH ETA NOTICEABLY
DRIER THAN GFS/SEF. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THIS FCT
PACKAGE...WITH RESULT BEING LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

DIGGING ULVL TROF PROGGED TO DVLP INTO CUTOFF LOW OVR FA TONITE.
BEST JET DYNAMICS AND PVA TRACK SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF FA
TON/THURS. ASSOCD SFC LOW DVLPS VCNTY 40N 70W EARLY TONITE...
THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS NEWRD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
OVRNGHT/THURS. FAVORABLE FLOW FOR UPSLOPE PCPN...WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING MSTR AVAILABILITY. MAIN PCPN THREAT WILL BE IN SC VT
EARLY ON...AND THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER TON/THURS. HAVE
CONFINED HIR POPS (LIKELY) AND MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH TOTALS GENERALLY FROM 1-4 INCHES EXPECTED. HAVE GONE
WITH JUST CHC POPS FOR ALL ZONES FROM CHMPLN VLY WEST. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PTYPE MAINLY SNOW TONITE/THURS AM (ALTHO IT MAY BE MIXED IN
VLYS THIS EVENING). LINGERING SNOW/RAIN SHWRS THURS PM/EVEN.

HIGH PRESSURE BLDS INTO FA FRIDAY RESULTING IN PRTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH CRESTS OVER FA FRI EVENING...THEN SLIDES OFF EAST COAST
BY SAT AM. ONSET OF WAA WL LEAD TO INCR IN CLDS...BUT HAVE
CONT'D WITH DRY FCST FOR SAT AND INTRODUCED CHC SHWRS FOR SAT NIGHT.

EXTENDED...(SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...LATEST MDL RUN SHOWS SOME
PRECIP WORKING INTO WESTERN REGION CWA EARLY ON SUNDAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. WILL ADJUST ZONES TO REFLECT CHANGE. PRECIP
STILL LOOKS LIGHTER SUN/MON VERSUS THE SYSTEM WHICH GETS ORGANIZED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW MOVES TOWARDS NORTHEAST W/ BULK OF
PRECIP. TUES/WED...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN DAY WEDNESDAY. AS
LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...WRAP-AROUND FROM LOW DOES LOOK TO
BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FOR POSSIBLE -SHSN. I WILL PUT CHANCE
-RW/SW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NE VT AND THE DACKS FOR DAY
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FROM PREVIOUS
RUN...BUT WILL ADJUST TEMPS IN ALL W/ REST NOT CHANGED.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
EXTENDED...JN









FXUS61 KBTV 222036
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2003

MAINLY CLDY SKIES ACRS FA THIS PM...WITH SOME AREAS OF SNOW/RAIN
SHWRS...ESPECIALLY IN SC VT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING NO MAJOR
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX FEATURES WHICH WILL IMPACT FA OVER NEXT 2
DAYS...BUT THEY ARE ALL DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUN WITH ETA NOTICEABLY
DRIER THAN GFS/SEF. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THIS FCT
PACKAGE...WITH RESULT BEING LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

DIGGING ULVL TROF PROGGED TO DVLP INTO CUTOFF LOW OVR FA TONITE.
BEST JET DYNAMICS AND PVA TRACK SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF FA
TON/THURS. ASSOCD SFC LOW DVLPS VCNTY 40N 70W EARLY TONITE...
THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS NEWRD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
OVRNGHT/THURS. FAVORABLE FLOW FOR UPSLOPE PCPN...WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING MSTR AVAILABILITY. MAIN PCPN THREAT WILL BE IN SC VT
EARLY ON...AND THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER TON/THURS. HAVE
CONFINED HIR POPS (LIKELY) AND MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH TOTALS GENERALLY FROM 1-4 INCHES EXPECTED. HAVE GONE
WITH JUST CHC POPS FOR ALL ZONES FROM CHMPLN VLY WEST. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PTYPE MAINLY SNOW TONITE/THURS AM (ALTHO IT MAY BE MIXED IN
VLYS THIS EVENING). LINGERING SNOW/RAIN SHWRS THURS PM/EVEN.

HIGH PRESSURE BLDS INTO FA FRIDAY RESULTING IN PRTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH CRESTS OVER FA FRI EVENING...THEN SLIDES OFF EAST COAST
BY SAT AM. ONSET OF WAA WL LEAD TO INCR IN CLDS...BUT HAVE
CONT'D WITH DRY FCST FOR SAT AND INTRODUCED CHC SHWRS FOR SAT NIGHT.

EXTENDED...(SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...LATEST MDL RUN SHOWS SOME
PRECIP WORKING INTO WESTERN REGION CWA EARLY ON SUNDAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. WILL ADJUST ZONES TO REFLECT CHANGE. PRECIP
STILL LOOKS LIGHTER SUN/MON VERSUS THE SYSTEM WHICH GETS ORGANIZED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW MOVES TOWARDS NORTHEAST W/ BULK OF
PRECIP. TUES/WED...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN DAY WEDNESDAY. AS
LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...WRAP-AROUND FROM LOW DOES LOOK TO
BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FOR POSSIBLE -SHSN. I WILL PUT CHANCE
-RW/SW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NE VT AND THE DACKS FOR DAY
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FROM PREVIOUS
RUN...BUT WILL ADJUST TEMPS IN ALL W/ REST NOT CHANGED.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
EXTENDED...JN




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

126
ASUS51 KBTV 231005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-231100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    35  27  72 N6        29.57S
MONTPELIER     FLURRIES  30  28  92 NW7       29.53S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    32  27  81 N8        29.54S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     32  30  92 CALM      29.48S
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    32  27  80 NW12G18   29.52S
SPRINGFIELD    FLURRIES  34  28  79 NW8       29.50R
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW  31  30  96 NW6       29.53R FOG
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                     5:00PM, Wednesday October 22, 2003
                   STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Anthony Seibel
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: Temperatures will remain cool this evening in the range of
   26-31 degrees and skies will continue to be overcast with a good
   chance of snow showers through the night. Accumulations will be up to
   2" for most of the forecast area with higher elevations seeing
   accumulations of up to 3" by morning. Winds will be from the north at
   5-10mph.

   Thursday: Thursday will be another cold day with highs around 34-40
   degrees. Snow or rain showers are likely with snow accumulations of up
   to 2". Winds will be from the northwest at 10-20mph.

   Thursday Night: Snow showers will be scattered across the region
   Thursday night, clearing to partly cloudy skies around midnight. Lows
   remain below freezing between 24-30 degrees with northwest winds at
   5-15mph.

   Friday: Friday will be a very pleasant day compared to the cold and
   cloudy week we've seen so far. Skies will be partly sunny with highs
   around 46-52 degrees for most areas. Lows will be between 26-32
   degrees with winds from the northwest at 5-10mph.

                             Extended Forecast

   Saturday: For Saturday we'll see partly sunny skies with warm highs
   nearing 50 degrees again. Overnight lows will be seasonable in the
   lower 30's with a chance of showers through the evening.

   Sunday: Sunny skies will shy away for the day with mostly cloudy skies
   and a chance of showers across the region. Highs will be nearing 50
   degrees with overnight lows again in the lower 30's.

   Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Warmer daytime highs
   than over the weekend will be seen with temperatures nearing 60
   degrees. Lows will be warm as well in the mid 40's.

                            Forecast Discussion

   A low pressure system will be moving over the area tonight, causing
   precipitation mostly in the form of snow. Accumulations could be up to
   3 inches for some areas overnight, with more snow expected for
   Thursday. Daytime highs will remain cool through Thursday, warming for
   Friday as high pressure along the bottom edge of the jetstream carries
   some warmer air north from the southeast. Daytime highs over the
   weekend will be back in an average range as a result of this system.
   In a few days we can put this cold weather behind us as we head into a
   nice, warm weekend.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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