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Expires:200311272100;;203359
FPUS51 KBTV 270955
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-272100-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2003

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW OR RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOW IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN EARLY...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW IN
THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE
UPPER 30S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON.
LOW 20 TO 25 AND HIGH 35 TO 40.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW 20 TO 25 AND HIGH IN THE MID 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 20S AND HIGH IN THE
LOWER 40S.

$$




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IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
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     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 271058
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
557 AM EST THU NOV 27 2003

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING THICKER HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STARTING TO
EAST OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL GIVE THE FORECAST AREA PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN PRECIP
TODAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER ETA FOR TIMING. HAVE ALSO GONE
BELOW MAV MOS POPS FOR TODAY AS WELL BECAUSE OF THIS. SKIES CLOUD
UP TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. GFS MODEL
SHOWS THAT ZERO CELSIUS ISOTHERM AT 850 MB WILL LIE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT TONIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF SNOW AT JAY PEAK TONIGHT BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN.

WENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST...AS
THIS MODEL THE MOST CONSISTENT...AND ALSO THE CONSENSUS MODEL PER
DISCUSSIONS FROM NCEP AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DIGGING UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VLY EARLY TONIGHT WILL BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE TENNESSEE VLY TONIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS TAKES THIS LOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION FOR A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS TRACK OF THE LOW.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE REGION...AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST VERMONT.

ON SATURDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT 500 MB OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE
OVER VERMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD UPSLOPE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND
GFS MODEL SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOCAL IN-HOUSE STUDY SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY. GFS MAV POPS GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADS INTO NORTHERN MAINE.

LOOKS LIKE A THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AREA WILL SEE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BOT

$$





FXUS61 KBTV 270218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 PM EST WED NOV 26 2003

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ENOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...WILL ADJUST ZONES
TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  IN ADDITION...THE CLOUDS
WILL HELP LIMIT HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT.  WILL LIKELY
ADJUST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MAINLY A RAIN EVENT COMING UP
THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND INTO MOST OF FRIDAY.  COLD AIR APPEARS IT
WANTS TO LAG BEHIND AND THUS LIMIT ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  WITH RESPECT TO SATURDAY...SIGNALS ARE
IN PLACE FOR AN UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION EVENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.  AWIPS VISUALIZATION OF LOCAL RESEARCH
THROUGH THE CSTAR PROJECT INDICATES MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION OF WIND WILL
BE FAVORABLE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  SOME NEGATIVES WITH THIS
EVENT...AS OPPOSED TO THE NOVEMBER 13/14 EVENT...ARE A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW AT 500 MB AND THE LACK OF A 12 HOUR OR GREATER DURATION.
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST EVENT AS WELL.
NONETHELESS...FORECAST SIGNALS SUGGEST CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THIS
UPCOMING EVENT.

UPDATED ZONES WILL BE ISSUED NO LATER THAN 930 PM. GRIDS...RDF...
GRAPHICS TO BE UPDATED AS WELL.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM...

HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE SLOWER AND DEEPER GFS SOLUTION REGARDING
THE UPCOMING WX EVENT FOR LATE THURS INTO SAT.

HIGH PRES RMNS IN CONTROL OF WX THRU THURS AM...THEN MOVES EAST OF FA
DURING PM. UPR TROF GETS CARVED OUT IN PLAINS STATES THURS AND
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACRS GRTLKS/OH VLY
FRI AND THEN ACRS NORTHEAST SATURDAY. INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS UP THRU
CNTRL GRTLKS THURS/THURS NITE INTO ONT FRIDAY. SECONDARY LOW NOW
PROGGED TO TRACK UP ALG CDFNT FROM MID ATLC STATES THURS NITE INTO
NEW ENG FRI. UPPER LOW WILL THEN RMN OVR FA FRI NITE INTO SAT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER RGN TONITE...EXPECT MSTLY CLR SKIES...
WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH CLDNSS FROM TIME TO TIME. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH THE MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WNDS...
SO HAVE GONE NEAR OR A LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE TEMPS. EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE DURING THURS AM....WITH INCR CLDS DURING PM AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN WRN ZONES BY EVENING.

HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURS NITE AND FRI. HOWEVER...
IT LOOKS AS IF THE HEAVIER QPF WILL BE TIED TO THE SECONDARY LOW FOR
LATE THURS NITE AND FRI. POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES. TEMP PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN THURS NITE/FRI AM. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR NOT UNTIL LATE FRI/FRI
NITE. PSBL MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NRN NY FRI PM...BUT NOT ACRS
REST OF AREA TILL FRI NITE. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS SAT/SAT NITE...ESPECIALLY OVR HIR
TRRN AND UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS...AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACRS RGN.

EXTENDED: NO MAJOR STORMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF FAST MOVG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACRS SRN CANADA DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING CLDY PERIODS AND
THE CHC OF SNOW SHWRS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&


$$







FXUS61 KBTV 262058
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2003

HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE SLOWER AND DEEPER GFS SOLUTION REGARDING
THE UPCOMING WX EVENT FOR LATE THURS INTO SAT.

HIGH PRES RMNS IN CONTROL OF WX THRU THURS AM...THEN MOVES EAST OF FA
DURING PM. UPR TROF GETS CARVED OUT IN PLAINS STATES THURS AND
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACRS GRTLKS/OH VLY
FRI AND THEN ACRS NORTHEAST SATURDAY. INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS UP THRU
CNTRL GRTLKS THURS/THURS NITE INTO ONT FRIDAY. SECONDARY LOW NOW
PROGGED TO TRACK UP ALG CDFNT FROM MID ATLC STATES THURS NITE INTO
NEW ENG FRI. UPPER LOW WILL THEN RMN OVR FA FRI NITE INTO SAT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER RGN TONITE...EXPECT MSTLY CLR SKIES...
WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH CLDNSS FROM TIME TO TIME. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH THE MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WNDS...
SO HAVE GONE NEAR OR A LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE TEMPS. EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE DURING THURS AM....WITH INCR CLDS DURING PM AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN WRN ZONES BY EVENING.

HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURS NITE AND FRI. HOWEVER...
IT LOOKS AS IF THE HEAVIER QPF WILL BE TIED TO THE SECONDARY LOW FOR
LATE THURS NITE AND FRI. POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES. TEMP PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN THURS NITE/FRI AM. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR NOT UNTIL LATE FRI/FRI
NITE. PSBL MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NRN NY FRI PM...BUT NOT ACRS
REST OF AREA TILL FRI NITE. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS SAT/SAT NITE...ESPECIALLY OVR HIR
TRRN AND UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS...AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACRS RGN.

EXTENDED: NO MAJOR STORMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF FAST MOVG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACRS SRN CANADA DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING CLDY PERIODS AND
THE CHC OF SNOW SHWRS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&


$$




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

134
ASUS51 KBTV 271105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU NOV 27 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-271200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     28  25  88 CALM      30.26R
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    24  21  88 S3        30.27S
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     25  24  96 CALM      30.28R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     27  25  92 CALM      30.26R
RUTLAND        PTCLDY    32  27  80 SE6       30.24S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    30  28  92 CALM      30.26R
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     29  28  96 SE3       30.23R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



       Student forecasts will be posted around 5pm EST/EDT during the
                                 semester.
      The NWS forecasts will posted when the student forecasts are not
                                 available.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
 FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
 MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
 ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
 455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2003

 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS
 AFTERNOON. HIGH 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
 .TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW OR RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE.
 LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOW IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
 CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
 .FRIDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE LOWER
 TO MID 40S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
 .FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
 NEAR 100 PERCENT.
 .SATURDAY...A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN EARLY...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
 BY LATE MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE
 OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
 .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW IN
 THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
 .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE
 UPPER 30S.
 .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON.
 LOW 20 TO 25 AND HIGH 35 TO 40.
 .TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
 CLOUDY. LOW 20 TO 25 AND HIGH IN THE MID 30S.
 .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 20S AND HIGH IN THE
 LOWER 40S.

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