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Expires:200312312100;;978938
FPUS51 KBTV 310845
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST WED DEC 31 2003


VTZ003-006-016-017-312100-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORLEANS VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT VT...RICHFORD VT...STOWE VT...
UNDERHILL VT
345 AM EST WED DEC 31 2003

.TODAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.NEW YEARS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 25 TO 30. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 15 ABOVE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW LATE. LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
HIGHS NEAR 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 310829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 AM EST WED DEC 31 2003

.DISC...STILL LOTS OF CLDS ERLY THIS MRNG AND EVEN A FEW FLRYS AS
RGN UNDER NW FLOW WITH SFC RDG TO THE W.  RDG WL MOV ACRS FA AFT 12Z
PRVDG A BRF WINDOW OF PTSUNNY SKIES BFR CLDS AHD OF NXT CLIPPER SYS
RACES EWD ACRS RGN.  CRNT TMPS STILL IN 30S SO WL BUMP UP MAXES A
BIT FM PREV FCST.

MDLS CONSISTENT WITH VIGRS S/WV AND ASSCD CLIPPER LOW PASSING N OF
RGN LT TDA/TNGT WHICH WL KEEP BEST CHC SNW CONFINED TO FAR NRN ZNS.
DCNT SHOT OF H8-H5 QG FORCG MOVG ACRS N ZNS 18-00Z SO WL CONT CHC
POPS FOR LTR TDA.  AS CLIPPER MVS E OF RGN TNGT AND NW FLOW DVLPS
TRRN INDUCED UPSLOPE WL BE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT TARGETING FVRD NW
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR SNW.  WENT WITH LKLY POPS TNGT FOR NW SLOPES OF
GREEN MTNS BUT JUST MNTND UP TO 2" ACCUM AS MSTR LMTD.  CHC POPS
ELSW.

XPCT LINGERING MTN FLRYS/SNW SHWRS IN NW FLOW DURG NEW YRS MRNG...
OTRW BCMG PTSUNNY AS SFC RDG BLDS EWD.  FAST FLOW WL DELIVER ANOTHER
WK DISTURBANCE LT THU NGT OR FRI WITH GFS FASTEST IN BRINGING MSTR
INTO RGN THU NGT. ETA/CNDN HOLD IT BACK TIL FRI.  LEANED TWD ETA
SOLN AS SFC RDG SHD KEEP FA DRY THU NGT AND UNDERCUT MAV TMPS SVRL
DEGRS WITH EXPECTATION OF MOCLR/LGT WNDS AT LEAST FIRST HALF THU NGT
WHICH WUD ALLOW TMPS TO TANK.

NO CHGS TO FRI WITH CHC LGT SNW IN WAA PATTERN...THEN INTRODUCED
RA/FZRA FRI NGT AND INCRD MINS AS WRMG CONTS WITH 1000-850 AND 850-
700 THKNS RISG ABV CRIT LEVELS.

NO CHGS SAT-TUE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

KJC





FXUS61 KBTV 310314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2003

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ATTM. RADAR LOOP SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO A GRADUAL END AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VLY.
WILL GO WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY
OVERNIGHT...AND REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAIDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.OVERVIEW...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE ERLY DEC AND FALL...WX PATTERNS HAVE BEEN
TRANQUIL AND WL CONT THAT WAY INTO THE NEW YEAR. HWVR...THE FIRST
REAL ARCTIC PLUNGE THREATENS THE CONUS...SPECIFICALLY THE NRN PLAINS
NXT WEEK AND MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF ANTHR PATTERN CHANGE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (WED-FRI NGT)...
HWVR...FLOW IS QUICK WITH NXT S/W DROPPING ACRS NRN GRT LAKES WED
INTO QUEBEC/NRN FA WED NGT/THU WITH A SFC CLIPPER RACING THRU LATE
WED AFTN/EVE. BEST QVEC CONV/LIFT OCCURRING LATE AFTN/EVE AND
PRIMARILY FOCUSED N OF BDR. HWVR...DO XPCT SOME -SN IN NRN ZONES
FM MID-AFTN (NRN NY) THRU MIDNGT (NRN VT). SNOW ACCUM WL BE LGT
(NONE-LTL) BUT CUD MAKE ROADS A BIT GREASY.

THIS CLIPPER DEPARTS WITH THE OLD YEAR AND LARGER RIDGING MVS INTO
THE FA FOR THE NEW YEAR (THU) AND CONTS THRU FRI. THERE IS SOME
ENERGY RIDING WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE RDG IN THE VCNTY OF A WEAK
DVLPG WRM FNT ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRS AND THAT WL LKLY
YIELD MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL FLURRIES.

FAST FLOW WITH MANY MINOR DISTURBANCES GENRALLY MEANS TIMING PRBLMS
BUT THE MAIN THEME IS NOTHING BIG FOR THIS FCST PKG.

&&

.LONGER TERM DISCUSSION (SAT-TUE)...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUESTHIS PERIOD...WITH ARCTIC AIR HELD
AT BAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT
AREA BY SAT/EARLY SUN TIME FRAME...BUT LATEST BNDRY LYR THICKNESS
PROFILES SUGGEST A WARMER  SOLN MOST AREAS...THUS WILL HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY CHC -RA SAT...THEN ACHANGEOVER TO SHSN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES
IN BEHIND SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE CHC -FZRA E OF
GREENS SAT...WITH INDICATIONS OF COLDER SFC AIR HANGING TOUGH MOST
OF DAY. ALL AND ALL A SCENARIO VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WX MAP.

SFC FRONT THEN STALLS ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER ON SUN...WITH
SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BNDRY INVOF SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEAN
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT...BRINGING A
CHC -SN TO AREA BY LATER IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT HRS ON MONDAY...ESP
SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS AREA FOR
TUE...WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENCROACHING ON AREA LATE TUE NT WITH
CHC MORE -SN/FLURRIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

WGH

$$





FXUS61 KBTV 301825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2003

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DUST OFF THE OLD AND BRING IN THE NEW YEAR?...

.OVERVIEW...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE ERLY DEC AND FALL...WX PATTERNS HAVE BEEN
TRANQUIL AND WL CONT THAT WAY INTO THE NEW YEAR. HWVR...THE FIRST
REAL ARCTIC PLUNGE THREATENS THE CONUS...SPECIFICALLY THE NRN PLAINS
NXT WEEK AND MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF ANTHR PATTERN CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT-FRI NGT)...
TDY'S SYSTEM CONTS TO EXIT FA WITH -RA TO -SN CHGOVR STL OCCURRING
BUT WL BE ENDING QUICKLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY RIDGING AT ALL
LVLS LATE TNGT WED.

HWVR...FLOW IS QUICK WITH NXT S/W DROPPING ACRS NRN GRT LAKES WED
INTO QUEBEC/NRN FA WED NGT/THU WITH A SFC CLIPPER RACING THRU LATE
WED AFTN/EVE. BEST QVEC CONV/LIFT OCCURRING LATE AFTN/EVE AND
PRIMARILY FOCUSED N OF BDR. HWVR...DO XPCT SOME -SN IN NRN ZONES
FM MID-AFTN (NRN NY) THRU MIDNGT (NRN VT). SNOW ACCUM WL BE LGT
(NONE-LTL) BUT CUD MAKE ROADS A BIT GREASY.

THIS CLIPPER DEPARTS WITH THE OLD YEAR AND LARGER RIDGING MVS INTO
THE FA FOR THE NEW YEAR (THU) AND CONTS THRU FRI. THERE IS SOME
ENERGY RIDING WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE RDG IN THE VCNTY OF A WEAK
DVLPG WRM FNT ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRS AND THAT WL LKLY
YIELD MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL FLURRIES.

FAST FLOW WITH MANY MINOR DISTURBANCES GENRALLY MEANS TIMING PRBLMS
BUT THE MAIN THEME IS NOTHING BIG FOR THIS FCST PKG.

&&

.LONGER TERM DISCUSSION (SAT-TUE)...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUESTHIS PERIOD...WITH ARCTIC AIR HELD
AT BAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT
AREA BY SAT/EARLY SUN TIME FRAME...BUT LATEST BNDRY LYR THICKNESS
PROFILES SUGGEST A WARMER  SOLN MOST AREAS...THUS WILL HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY CHC -RA SAT...THEN ACHANGEOVER TO SHSN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES
IN BEHIND SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE CHC -FZRA E OF
GREENS SAT...WITH INDICATIONS OF COLDER SFC AIR HANGING TOUGH MOST
OF DAY. ALL AND ALL A SCENARIO VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WX MAP.

SFC FRONT THEN STALLS ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER ON SUN...WITH
SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BNDRY INVOF SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEAN
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT...BRINGING A
CHC -SN TO AREA BY LATER IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT HRS ON MONDAY...ESP
SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS AREA FOR
TUE...WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ENCROACHING ON AREA LATE TUE NT WITH
CHC MORE -SN/FLURRIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM... SLW
.LONG TERM...JG

$$










   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

475
ASUS51 KBTV 302005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-302100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   41  30  65 W13G18    29.69R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    40  28  62 W21G29    29.64R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    39  32  76 N8        29.63R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     41  31  67 VRB5      29.58R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    39  25  56 NW17G28   29.73R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    42  28  57 W16G24    29.69R
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    40  28  62 W18G25    29.79R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
NNNN



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