Expires:200401152100;;318226
FPUS51 KBTV 150945
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-152100-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
445 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004
...WIND CHILL WARNING TODAY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY...
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BITTER COLD WITH HIGHS 10 BELOW TO 15
BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRISK. TEMPERATURES
STEADY 10 TO 15 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH PRODUCING WIND
CHILLS OF 30 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS 0
TO 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH SUBSIDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 50 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY 0 TO 5 ABOVE.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10
MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 0 TO 5 BELOW.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 15 TO 20. CHANCE OF
SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 4.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 3.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
$$
REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
_________________________________________________________________
FXUS61 KBTV 150741 AAA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
240 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004
CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FA AT THIS
TIME...WITH SOME -SN NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN FA ASSOC W/CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING WELL SOUTH OF AREA. LIGHT LK CHAMPLAIN SNOW BAND ALSO NOTED
ACROSS E ESSEX COUNTY NY AS VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING LT NNE
FLOW. EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY OUT OF THESE
FEATURES. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND...TEMPS HAVE HELD NEARLY
STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY FALLEN FROM YESTERDAY'S MAXES...RUNNING
GENERALLY IN THE -8 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE WITH A FEW COLDER READINGS
NOTED...ESP ACROSS NE VT.
TODAY INTO SATURDAY...FIRST ISSUE TO ADDRESS IS WIND AND WIND CHILL
CONCERNS. IMPRESSIVE POLAR VORTEX STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS AREA LATER TODAY...PASSING JUST EAST OF AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS OF -34 TO -38C IN COMBINATION W/AMPLE BNDRY
LYR MIXING TO THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO ARGUE FOR BITTERLY COLD TEMPS
AND NW FLOW TO INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WITH AFTERNOON
MAXES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WILL GO WITH WIND CHILL WARNING ALL
AREAS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH VALUES OF -30 TO -50F
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL AREAS. OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...YES SNOWFALL LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY. LATEST GFS SOLN DOESN'T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT QPF...BUT ETA CAMP WHICH USUALLY VERIFIES BETTER IN
OROGRAPHICAL SITUATIONS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. BOTH OPERATIONAL SOLNS
AND BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES ALL ARGUE FOR IMPRESSIVE 925-850 HPA
WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT ON NOSE OF 40 TO
60 KT 850 HPA JET. BNDRY LYR RH TO INCREASE TO NEARLY 90 PERCENT AND
THE 850 TO 500 HPA LYR RH TO AS HIGH AS 70 PERCENT. IN ADDITION SFC
TO 900 HPA LAPSE RATES AT -8 TO -10C/KM AND PRIME SNOW GROWTH LYR
ALOFT EMBEDDED IN MAX RH. THOUGH SIGNIFICANT COLUMNAR OMEGA
LACKING...OROGRAPHY LOOKS TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE AS STRONG 925-850 HPA
LYR NW FLOW FROM 290 TO 320 AT 30 TO 40 KT SHOULD EASILY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE LIFT. HAVE BEEN BIT BY WAA PATTERNS FROM THE
NORTH LIKE THIS BEFORE...AND WILL RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY. BEST
ACCUMULATING SNOWS LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN LOCNS. LOCNS FURTHER
SOUTH EITHER DON'T GET INTO THE BEST MOISTURE (RUTLAND CO.) OR ARE
INFLUENCED BY ADIABATIC DESCENT (WINDSOR CO.). LATEST
ETA12/WORKSTATION ETA QPF SOLNS ARGUE FOR A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MTN
LOCALES BY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
(TEMPS BELOW ZERO) SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH ACROSS
AREA AND SOME TOTALS MAY BE HIGHER ESP ACROSS MTN LOCALES. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW IN PROGRESS...AND LIGHT FLUFFY NATURE OF
SNOW...CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING CONDS TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP...AND
PLAN ON ISSUING STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THESE ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE FRI AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SFC
WINDS ABATE. SFC ANTICYCLONE TO BRIDGE ACROSS AREA INTO SAT WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING UNDER AMPLE SUN.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUN...NEXT WEAK SYSTEM TO PASS NW OF AREA WITH
SOME LT WAA SNOWS AFFECTING WESTERN ZONES SAT NT...THEN ACROSS ALL
AREAS ON SUN.
AFTERWARDS...REST OF EXTENDED UNCHANGED WITH MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDS EXPECTED. EARLIER INDICATIONS OF MORE RAPID
WARMUP NEXT WEEK NOW LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO BE PUT ON HOLD AS
SERIES OF POLAR LOWS AND ASSOC WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS REINFORCE
COLD AIR REGIME. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH
LOWS -15 TO 5 ABOVE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING TODAY THRU FRI MRNG VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING TODAY THRU FRI MRNG NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
FXUS61 KBTV 150256 AAA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 PM EST WED JAN 14 2004
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
PRVS FCST HAS IT HNDLD...BRRRR!!!! CLIPPER AND SNOW STAYING S
AND TMPS WELL...WELL BLO ZERO, JUST STAY INSIDE AND BUNDLE UP.
TODAY'S MAX TEMPERATURE OF -8 WAS THE COLDEST MAXIMUM SINCE
01/04/81...THAT'S 23 YEARS!
RERBTV ISSUED FOR RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE, HERE ARE SOME
OTHER RECORDS AND MORE.
LOWEST MAXIMUM (01/14) LOWEST MIN (01/14)
BURLINGTON 8 BELOW (OLD -4/1988) -26 SET IN 1914
MONTPELIER 11 BELOW (OLD -6/1988) -33 SET IN 1957
ST. JOHNSBURY 8 BELOW (OLD +3/1957) -38 SET IN 1914
MASSENA, NY 9 BELOW (OLD -6/1957) -40 SET IN 1957
LOWEST MAXIMUM (01/15) LOWEST MIN (01/15)
BURLINGTON 6 BELOW SET IN 1965 -30 SET IN 1957
MONTPELIER 8 BELOW SET IN 1965 -33 SET IN 1957
ST. JOHNSBURY 6 BELOW SET IN 1965 -32 SET IN 1957
MASSENA, NY 18 BELOW SET IN 1957 -44 SET IN 1957
LOWEST MAXIMUM (01/16) LOWEST MIN (01/16)
BURLINGTON 6 BELOW SET IN 1965 -20 SET IN 1920
MONTPELIER 9 BELOW SET IN 1994 -21 SET IN 1994
ST. JOHNSBURY 1 BELOW SET IN 1994 -28 SET IN 1920
MASSENA, NY 9 BELOW SET IN 1994 -31 SET IN 1984
NO FCST UPDATE NEEDED.
SLW
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SAT)...MAIN WX HILITE CONTS TO BE EXTREMELY COLD
AMS WHICH HAS GRIPPED THE N CNTRY. MAX TMPS HAV STRUGGLED TO RCH
-10 TDA AND MORE OF THE SAME THU BUT MORE WIND WL MAKE IT BRUTAL.
GFS HAS TRENDED FTHR N WITH PCPN SHIELD ASSCD WITH CLIPPER SYS
TRACKING S OF FA AND NOW HAS LGT SNW MVG INTO MCH OF FA. SREF RSM
ENSEMBLES KEEP MSRBL PCPN MSTLY S OF FA SO HAV LEANED IN THIS
DIRECTION AND WL CONFINE LOW CHC POPS TO S VT WITH JUST SCHC ACRS
SRN ST LAW CNTY AND PORTIONS OF ADRNDCKS. OTRW PTCLDY. MINS 15 TO
30 BLO AGN TNGT BUT LGT WINDS WL NOT MAKE CHILL MCH OF A FACTOR.
DIGGING NRN STRM S/WV N OF LKS WL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHORT OF EXTREME DEEP COLD AIR INTO THE N CNTRY THU/THU NGT AS
ARCTIC VORTEX ROTATES SWD ACRS RGN. H8 TMPS FALLING ALL DAY THU
TO -30 TO -35 BY 00Z FRI AND BOTTOM OUT NR -38 BY 06Z FRI!. MAXES
SMLR OR EVEN COLDER THAN TDA...-5 TO -15 ACRS MCH OF FA AND WITH
WIND INCRG DURG DAY AND BRISK WINDS THU NGT INTO FRI HAV ISSUED WIND
CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG. WIND CHILLS -25 TO -40 THU LKLY TO
RCH -50 THU NGT.
AFT VORTEX AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR MVS SE OF FA LTR THU NGT...WAA
DVLPS ON NLY FLOW COMBINED WITH INCRG RH SHD LEAD TO SOME LGT SNW...
ESP N ZNS. BUMPED UP POPS AND INCLUDED CHC LGT SNW THU NGT INTO
FRI. MINS THU NGT (-15 TO -25) LKLY TO OCCUR BY MIDNGT THEN
STDY/SLOWLY RISG WITH WAA. DESPITE WRMG H8 TMPS...LL THKNS/BL TMPS
STILL VRY COLD FRI SO BITTER COLD TO CONT FRI ALTHO "MILDER" THAN
PREV DAYS...GNLY ZERO TO 5.
DECRG CLD CVR FRI NGT AS SFC RDG SLOWLY BLDS EWD FM GT LKS THEN
LOTS OF SUN XPCTD SAT AND MORE TOLERABLE TMPS INTO TEENS/L20S.
&&
.EXTENDED (SAT NGT-WED)...ACRS WESTERN CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN CONTS
WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN US THRU SUNDAY.
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS WL KEEP SW CONUS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SUNDAY...WEAK WAA LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR
CWA. MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE AT 7H WITH BEST 5H VORT LIFTING
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 00Z MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION SCT
FLURRIES...WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR -12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S.
ON MONDAY ECMWF/GFS SHOWS WEAK SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACRS
OUR CWA. 85H TEMPS DROP 4 TO 8C WITH LLVL CAA. WL DROP TEMPS INTO
THE U10S TO L20S. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM WITH BEST MOISTURE
STAYING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TUE-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF
SLOWLY LIFTS NE AS STRONG S/W ENERGY DIGS TROF ACRS THE NW CONUS
AND BUILDS RIDGE OVER MIDWEST. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY THRU WEDS
WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. LATEST ENSEMBLES DATA
SUGGEST GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED WITH LATE WEEK PATTERN. CRNT THINKING
IS WITH SNOW-PACK AND POSITION OF SFC HIGH ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA
STORM TRACK LATE NEXT WEEK WL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND TEMPS WL BE
COLDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KJC
EXTENDED...TABER
FXUS61 KBTV 142057
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EST WED JAN 14 2004
.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SAT)...MAIN WX HILITE CONTS TO BE EXTREMELY COLD
AMS WHICH HAS GRIPPED THE N CNTRY. MAX TMPS HAV STRUGGLED TO RCH
-10 TDA AND MORE OF THE SAME THU BUT MORE WIND WL MAKE IT BRUTAL.
GFS HAS TRENDED FTHR N WITH PCPN SHIELD ASSCD WITH CLIPPER SYS
TRACKING S OF FA AND NOW HAS LGT SNW MVG INTO MCH OF FA. SREF RSM
ENSEMBLES KEEP MSRBL PCPN MSTLY S OF FA SO HAV LEANED IN THIS
DIRECTION AND WL CONFINE LOW CHC POPS TO S VT WITH JUST SCHC ACRS
SRN ST LAW CNTY AND PORTIONS OF ADRNDCKS. OTRW PTCLDY. MINS 15 TO
30 BLO AGN TNGT BUT LGT WINDS WL NOT MAKE CHILL MCH OF A FACTOR.
DIGGING NRN STRM S/WV N OF LKS WL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHORT OF EXTREME DEEP COLD AIR INTO THE N CNTRY THU/THU NGT AS
ARCTIC VORTEX ROTATES SWD ACRS RGN. H8 TMPS FALLING ALL DAY THU
TO -30 TO -35 BY 00Z FRI AND BOTTOM OUT NR -38 BY 06Z FRI!. MAXES
SMLR OR EVEN COLDER THAN TDA...-5 TO -15 ACRS MCH OF FA AND WITH
WIND INCRG DURG DAY AND BRISK WINDS THU NGT INTO FRI HAV ISSUED WIND
CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG. WIND CHILLS -25 TO -40 THU LKLY TO
RCH -50 THU NGT.
AFT VORTEX AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR MVS SE OF FA LTR THU NGT...WAA
DVLPS ON NLY FLOW COMBINED WITH INCRG RH SHD LEAD TO SOME LGT SNW...
ESP N ZNS. BUMPED UP POPS AND INCLUDED CHC LGT SNW THU NGT INTO
FRI. MINS THU NGT (-15 TO -25) LKLY TO OCCUR BY MIDNGT THEN
STDY/SLOWLY RISG WITH WAA. DESPITE WRMG H8 TMPS...LL THKNS/BL TMPS
STILL VRY COLD FRI SO BITTER COLD TO CONT FRI ALTHO "MILDER" THAN
PREV DAYS...GNLY ZERO TO 5.
DECRG CLD CVR FRI NGT AS SFC RDG SLOWLY BLDS EWD FM GT LKS THEN
LOTS OF SUN XPCTD SAT AND MORE TOLERABLE TMPS INTO TEENS/L20S.
&&
.EXTENDED (SAT NGT-WED)...ACRS WESTERN CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN CONTS
WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN US THRU SUNDAY.
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS WL KEEP SW CONUS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SUNDAY...WEAK WAA LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR
CWA. MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE AT 7H WITH BEST 5H VORT LIFTING
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 00Z MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION SCT
FLURRIES...WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR -12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S.
ON MONDAY ECMWF/GFS SHOWS WEAK SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACRS
OUR CWA. 85H TEMPS DROP 4 TO 8C WITH LLVL CAA. WL DROP TEMPS INTO
THE U10S TO L20S. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM WITH BEST MOISTURE
STAYING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TUE-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF
SLOWLY LIFTS NE AS STRONG S/W ENERGY DIGS TROF ACRS THE NW CONUS
AND BUILDS RIDGE OVER MIDWEST. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY THRU WEDS
WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. LATEST ENSEMBLES DATA
SUGGEST GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED WITH LATE WEEK PATTERN. CRNT THINKING
IS WITH SNOW-PACK AND POSITION OF SFC HIGH ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA
STORM TRACK LATE NEXT WEEK WL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND TEMPS WL BE
COLDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KJC
EXTENDED...TABER
This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
Network)
References
1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html
437
ASUS51 KBTV 151105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
VTZ001>014-151200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY -19 -25 73 E5 29.96S
MONTPELIER PTCLDY -21 -27 73 CALM 29.84S
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY -28 -34 72 CALM 29.91R HAZE
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A -24 -30 73 CALM 29.88R
RUTLAND PTCLDY -11 -24 53 N5 29.84S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY -9 -20 58 N10 29.84S WCI -27
BENNINGTON CLOUDY -6 -12 75 VRB6 29.80R
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