Expires:200401152100;;318226 FPUS51 KBTV 150945 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 445 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004 VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-152100- CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT... MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT... ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT 445 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004 ...WIND CHILL WARNING TODAY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY... .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BITTER COLD WITH HIGHS 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRISK. TEMPERATURES STEADY 10 TO 15 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS 0 TO 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 50 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY 0 TO 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 0 TO 5 BELOW. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 4. .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 3. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. $$ REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see [2]additional information here _________________________________________________________________ FXUS61 KBTV 150741 AAA AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 240 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004 CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FA AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME -SN NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN FA ASSOC W/CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF AREA. LIGHT LK CHAMPLAIN SNOW BAND ALSO NOTED ACROSS E ESSEX COUNTY NY AS VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING LT NNE FLOW. EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY OUT OF THESE FEATURES. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND...TEMPS HAVE HELD NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY FALLEN FROM YESTERDAY'S MAXES...RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE -8 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE WITH A FEW COLDER READINGS NOTED...ESP ACROSS NE VT. TODAY INTO SATURDAY...FIRST ISSUE TO ADDRESS IS WIND AND WIND CHILL CONCERNS. IMPRESSIVE POLAR VORTEX STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA LATER TODAY...PASSING JUST EAST OF AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS OF -34 TO -38C IN COMBINATION W/AMPLE BNDRY LYR MIXING TO THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO ARGUE FOR BITTERLY COLD TEMPS AND NW FLOW TO INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WITH AFTERNOON MAXES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WILL GO WITH WIND CHILL WARNING ALL AREAS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH VALUES OF -30 TO -50F EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL AREAS. OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...YES SNOWFALL LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. LATEST GFS SOLN DOESN'T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT QPF...BUT ETA CAMP WHICH USUALLY VERIFIES BETTER IN OROGRAPHICAL SITUATIONS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. BOTH OPERATIONAL SOLNS AND BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES ALL ARGUE FOR IMPRESSIVE 925-850 HPA WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT ON NOSE OF 40 TO 60 KT 850 HPA JET. BNDRY LYR RH TO INCREASE TO NEARLY 90 PERCENT AND THE 850 TO 500 HPA LYR RH TO AS HIGH AS 70 PERCENT. IN ADDITION SFC TO 900 HPA LAPSE RATES AT -8 TO -10C/KM AND PRIME SNOW GROWTH LYR ALOFT EMBEDDED IN MAX RH. THOUGH SIGNIFICANT COLUMNAR OMEGA LACKING...OROGRAPHY LOOKS TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE AS STRONG 925-850 HPA LYR NW FLOW FROM 290 TO 320 AT 30 TO 40 KT SHOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE LIFT. HAVE BEEN BIT BY WAA PATTERNS FROM THE NORTH LIKE THIS BEFORE...AND WILL RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY. BEST ACCUMULATING SNOWS LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN LOCNS. LOCNS FURTHER SOUTH EITHER DON'T GET INTO THE BEST MOISTURE (RUTLAND CO.) OR ARE INFLUENCED BY ADIABATIC DESCENT (WINDSOR CO.). LATEST ETA12/WORKSTATION ETA QPF SOLNS ARGUE FOR A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MTN LOCALES BY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE (TEMPS BELOW ZERO) SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH ACROSS AREA AND SOME TOTALS MAY BE HIGHER ESP ACROSS MTN LOCALES. WITH STRONGER NW FLOW IN PROGRESS...AND LIGHT FLUFFY NATURE OF SNOW...CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING CONDS TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP...AND PLAN ON ISSUING STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THESE ADDITIONAL CONCERNS. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE FRI AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SFC WINDS ABATE. SFC ANTICYCLONE TO BRIDGE ACROSS AREA INTO SAT WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING UNDER AMPLE SUN. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUN...NEXT WEAK SYSTEM TO PASS NW OF AREA WITH SOME LT WAA SNOWS AFFECTING WESTERN ZONES SAT NT...THEN ACROSS ALL AREAS ON SUN. AFTERWARDS...REST OF EXTENDED UNCHANGED WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDS EXPECTED. EARLIER INDICATIONS OF MORE RAPID WARMUP NEXT WEEK NOW LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO BE PUT ON HOLD AS SERIES OF POLAR LOWS AND ASSOC WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS REINFORCE COLD AIR REGIME. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS -15 TO 5 ABOVE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL WARNING TODAY THRU FRI MRNG VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING TODAY THRU FRI MRNG NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ PUBLIC...JMG AVIATION...RJS FXUS61 KBTV 150256 AAA AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 945 PM EST WED JAN 14 2004 .UPDATED DISCUSSION... PRVS FCST HAS IT HNDLD...BRRRR!!!! CLIPPER AND SNOW STAYING S AND TMPS WELL...WELL BLO ZERO, JUST STAY INSIDE AND BUNDLE UP. TODAY'S MAX TEMPERATURE OF -8 WAS THE COLDEST MAXIMUM SINCE 01/04/81...THAT'S 23 YEARS! RERBTV ISSUED FOR RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE, HERE ARE SOME OTHER RECORDS AND MORE. LOWEST MAXIMUM (01/14) LOWEST MIN (01/14) BURLINGTON 8 BELOW (OLD -4/1988) -26 SET IN 1914 MONTPELIER 11 BELOW (OLD -6/1988) -33 SET IN 1957 ST. JOHNSBURY 8 BELOW (OLD +3/1957) -38 SET IN 1914 MASSENA, NY 9 BELOW (OLD -6/1957) -40 SET IN 1957 LOWEST MAXIMUM (01/15) LOWEST MIN (01/15) BURLINGTON 6 BELOW SET IN 1965 -30 SET IN 1957 MONTPELIER 8 BELOW SET IN 1965 -33 SET IN 1957 ST. JOHNSBURY 6 BELOW SET IN 1965 -32 SET IN 1957 MASSENA, NY 18 BELOW SET IN 1957 -44 SET IN 1957 LOWEST MAXIMUM (01/16) LOWEST MIN (01/16) BURLINGTON 6 BELOW SET IN 1965 -20 SET IN 1920 MONTPELIER 9 BELOW SET IN 1994 -21 SET IN 1994 ST. JOHNSBURY 1 BELOW SET IN 1994 -28 SET IN 1920 MASSENA, NY 9 BELOW SET IN 1994 -31 SET IN 1984 NO FCST UPDATE NEEDED. SLW && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TNGT-SAT)...MAIN WX HILITE CONTS TO BE EXTREMELY COLD AMS WHICH HAS GRIPPED THE N CNTRY. MAX TMPS HAV STRUGGLED TO RCH -10 TDA AND MORE OF THE SAME THU BUT MORE WIND WL MAKE IT BRUTAL. GFS HAS TRENDED FTHR N WITH PCPN SHIELD ASSCD WITH CLIPPER SYS TRACKING S OF FA AND NOW HAS LGT SNW MVG INTO MCH OF FA. SREF RSM ENSEMBLES KEEP MSRBL PCPN MSTLY S OF FA SO HAV LEANED IN THIS DIRECTION AND WL CONFINE LOW CHC POPS TO S VT WITH JUST SCHC ACRS SRN ST LAW CNTY AND PORTIONS OF ADRNDCKS. OTRW PTCLDY. MINS 15 TO 30 BLO AGN TNGT BUT LGT WINDS WL NOT MAKE CHILL MCH OF A FACTOR. DIGGING NRN STRM S/WV N OF LKS WL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORT OF EXTREME DEEP COLD AIR INTO THE N CNTRY THU/THU NGT AS ARCTIC VORTEX ROTATES SWD ACRS RGN. H8 TMPS FALLING ALL DAY THU TO -30 TO -35 BY 00Z FRI AND BOTTOM OUT NR -38 BY 06Z FRI!. MAXES SMLR OR EVEN COLDER THAN TDA...-5 TO -15 ACRS MCH OF FA AND WITH WIND INCRG DURG DAY AND BRISK WINDS THU NGT INTO FRI HAV ISSUED WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG. WIND CHILLS -25 TO -40 THU LKLY TO RCH -50 THU NGT. AFT VORTEX AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR MVS SE OF FA LTR THU NGT...WAA DVLPS ON NLY FLOW COMBINED WITH INCRG RH SHD LEAD TO SOME LGT SNW... ESP N ZNS. BUMPED UP POPS AND INCLUDED CHC LGT SNW THU NGT INTO FRI. MINS THU NGT (-15 TO -25) LKLY TO OCCUR BY MIDNGT THEN STDY/SLOWLY RISG WITH WAA. DESPITE WRMG H8 TMPS...LL THKNS/BL TMPS STILL VRY COLD FRI SO BITTER COLD TO CONT FRI ALTHO "MILDER" THAN PREV DAYS...GNLY ZERO TO 5. DECRG CLD CVR FRI NGT AS SFC RDG SLOWLY BLDS EWD FM GT LKS THEN LOTS OF SUN XPCTD SAT AND MORE TOLERABLE TMPS INTO TEENS/L20S. && .EXTENDED (SAT NGT-WED)...ACRS WESTERN CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN CONTS WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN US THRU SUNDAY. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS WL KEEP SW CONUS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH THUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY...WEAK WAA LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE AT 7H WITH BEST 5H VORT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 00Z MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION SCT FLURRIES...WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR -12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S. ON MONDAY ECMWF/GFS SHOWS WEAK SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACRS OUR CWA. 85H TEMPS DROP 4 TO 8C WITH LLVL CAA. WL DROP TEMPS INTO THE U10S TO L20S. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM WITH BEST MOISTURE STAYING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TUE-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS NE AS STRONG S/W ENERGY DIGS TROF ACRS THE NW CONUS AND BUILDS RIDGE OVER MIDWEST. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY THRU WEDS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. LATEST ENSEMBLES DATA SUGGEST GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED WITH LATE WEEK PATTERN. CRNT THINKING IS WITH SNOW-PACK AND POSITION OF SFC HIGH ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA STORM TRACK LATE NEXT WEEK WL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND TEMPS WL BE COLDER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJC EXTENDED...TABER FXUS61 KBTV 142057 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 356 PM EST WED JAN 14 2004 .SHORT TERM (TNGT-SAT)...MAIN WX HILITE CONTS TO BE EXTREMELY COLD AMS WHICH HAS GRIPPED THE N CNTRY. MAX TMPS HAV STRUGGLED TO RCH -10 TDA AND MORE OF THE SAME THU BUT MORE WIND WL MAKE IT BRUTAL. GFS HAS TRENDED FTHR N WITH PCPN SHIELD ASSCD WITH CLIPPER SYS TRACKING S OF FA AND NOW HAS LGT SNW MVG INTO MCH OF FA. SREF RSM ENSEMBLES KEEP MSRBL PCPN MSTLY S OF FA SO HAV LEANED IN THIS DIRECTION AND WL CONFINE LOW CHC POPS TO S VT WITH JUST SCHC ACRS SRN ST LAW CNTY AND PORTIONS OF ADRNDCKS. OTRW PTCLDY. MINS 15 TO 30 BLO AGN TNGT BUT LGT WINDS WL NOT MAKE CHILL MCH OF A FACTOR. DIGGING NRN STRM S/WV N OF LKS WL BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORT OF EXTREME DEEP COLD AIR INTO THE N CNTRY THU/THU NGT AS ARCTIC VORTEX ROTATES SWD ACRS RGN. H8 TMPS FALLING ALL DAY THU TO -30 TO -35 BY 00Z FRI AND BOTTOM OUT NR -38 BY 06Z FRI!. MAXES SMLR OR EVEN COLDER THAN TDA...-5 TO -15 ACRS MCH OF FA AND WITH WIND INCRG DURG DAY AND BRISK WINDS THU NGT INTO FRI HAV ISSUED WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG. WIND CHILLS -25 TO -40 THU LKLY TO RCH -50 THU NGT. AFT VORTEX AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR MVS SE OF FA LTR THU NGT...WAA DVLPS ON NLY FLOW COMBINED WITH INCRG RH SHD LEAD TO SOME LGT SNW... ESP N ZNS. BUMPED UP POPS AND INCLUDED CHC LGT SNW THU NGT INTO FRI. MINS THU NGT (-15 TO -25) LKLY TO OCCUR BY MIDNGT THEN STDY/SLOWLY RISG WITH WAA. DESPITE WRMG H8 TMPS...LL THKNS/BL TMPS STILL VRY COLD FRI SO BITTER COLD TO CONT FRI ALTHO "MILDER" THAN PREV DAYS...GNLY ZERO TO 5. DECRG CLD CVR FRI NGT AS SFC RDG SLOWLY BLDS EWD FM GT LKS THEN LOTS OF SUN XPCTD SAT AND MORE TOLERABLE TMPS INTO TEENS/L20S. && .EXTENDED (SAT NGT-WED)...ACRS WESTERN CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN CONTS WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN US THRU SUNDAY. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS WL KEEP SW CONUS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH THUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY...WEAK WAA LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE AT 7H WITH BEST 5H VORT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 00Z MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION SCT FLURRIES...WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR -12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S. ON MONDAY ECMWF/GFS SHOWS WEAK SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACRS OUR CWA. 85H TEMPS DROP 4 TO 8C WITH LLVL CAA. WL DROP TEMPS INTO THE U10S TO L20S. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM WITH BEST MOISTURE STAYING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TUE-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS NE AS STRONG S/W ENERGY DIGS TROF ACRS THE NW CONUS AND BUILDS RIDGE OVER MIDWEST. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY THRU WEDS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. LATEST ENSEMBLES DATA SUGGEST GFS IS TOO AMPLIFIED WITH LATE WEEK PATTERN. CRNT THINKING IS WITH SNOW-PACK AND POSITION OF SFC HIGH ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA STORM TRACK LATE NEXT WEEK WL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND TEMPS WL BE COLDER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WATCH THU THRU FRI MRNG NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJC EXTENDED...TABER This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information Network) References 1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html 2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html 3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html 437 ASUS51 KBTV 151105 SWRVT VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. VTZ001>014-151200- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY -19 -25 73 E5 29.96S MONTPELIER PTCLDY -21 -27 73 CALM 29.84S MORRISVILLE MOCLDY -28 -34 72 CALM 29.91R HAZE ST. JOHNSBURY N/A -24 -30 73 CALM 29.88R RUTLAND PTCLDY -11 -24 53 N5 29.84S SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY -9 -20 58 N10 29.84S WCI -27 BENNINGTON CLOUDY -6 -12 75 VRB6 29.80R Not Found The requested URL /404/index.html was not found on this server. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html