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Expires:200401182100;;386443
FPUS51 KBTV 180846
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-182100-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
345 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2004

.TODAY...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. UP TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
10. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 0 TO 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 10 TO 15. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
NEAR 4. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 180923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2004

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH WAA -SN NOW SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN FA. SNOW HAS TAKEN AWHILE TO INITIALLY REACH GROUND DUE TO
RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LYR. AFTER INITIALLY FALLING BRIEFLY YESTERDAY
EVENING...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMBED
OVERNIGHT...AND ARE NOW RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 BALLPARK.

TODAY INTO MONDAY...WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOC WAA FROM 850-700 HPA
LEVEL TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS TODAY. BEST COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND
275-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT CROSS AREA BEFORE 18Z...THUS WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS...BUT BEST FORCING SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING
WITH A GENERAL TRACE TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL. NEXT DEEP 500 HPA LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT INITIATING
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE. AS UPPER LOW PASSES...BNDRY LYR FLOW TO TURN
WNW AND INCREASE AS SFC P-RAD TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY. WILL MAINTAIN
CHC SHSN NORTH/FLURRIES SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATING DECENT SNOW GROWTH AND LOW LEVEL OMEGA
LATER TONIGHT...BUT BNDRY LYR FLOW MORE WESTERLY (270-290) THAN NW
OR NNW. THUS CHANCES APPEAR LESS LIKELY FOR A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
EVENT AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS OR LESS HERE.

MONDAY NT INTO WED...SOME SLIGHT DISPARITY AMONG ETA/GFS CAMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ARGUING FOR A CONTINUED MOIST NW
FLOW...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHSN/FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN VALLEYS/MTNS. ETA SUGGESTS BNDRY LYR MOISTURE PROFILES TO
DRY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BROAD CENTRAL U.S. ANTICYCLONE BRIDGING INTO
REGION. WITH BOTH SOLNS INDICATING SFC AND UPPER LOWS EAST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK DURING THIS PERIOD...FEEL INFLUENCE FROM THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT GFS INDICATES...AND WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
DRY FCST HERE.

WEDNESDAY NT ONWARD...NO CHANGES HERE...WITH LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL PROGS STILL INDICATING NEXT DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW TO
AFFECT AREA LATE WED NT INTO THURSDAY. SYSTEM RUNNING INTO
CONFLUENCE ON BACK SIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING MARITIME SYSTEM
HOWEVER...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT SHOULD DAMPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES AREA. DRY FRI...THEN CHC -SN AGAIN BY
SAT AS NW FLOW CONTINUES. THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST WEEKS
READINGS...TEMPS SHOULD SAG DOWNWARD ONCE AGAIN INTO LATE WEEK AS
DEEPENING POLAR VORTEX ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR SAGS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMG
AVIATION...RJS











FXUS61 KBTV 180236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

.UPDATE DDISCUSSION...

CLDS INCRSG AS XPCTD WITH -SN ENTERING WRN FA. PRVS FCST LOOKS GOOD,
THUS NO UPDATED NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE
VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AND ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOWS.
WILL GO LIKELY OR GREATER OVER ALL BUT EASTERN VERMONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1...SHOULD
ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES MOST AREAS.  SECONDARY SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STRONGEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS/HALF INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SO AGAIN...
PRECIPITATION TO BE GENERATED FROM DYNAMIC SUPPORT OF UPPER LOW.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS.  CLOSED 500 MB LOW
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION APPEARS IT MAY PERSIST WHICH WOULD KEEP
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED TO 700
MB...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST
AS WELL...SO THIS EVENT MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS UPSLOPE EVENT.  SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL
WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING TAKING PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...
SFC RIDGE MVS EAST OVER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY NITE...THEN
OVER CWA/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. W/ EXITING SYSTEM
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL KEEP SOME CLD COVER OVER CWA WED. BUT SHOULD
BE PRETTY DECENT DAY. MRF THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY GIVING SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM OVERNITE LOWS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

NEXT "CLIPPER"/SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION IS LATE WED. NITE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS LOW QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH MVS OFFSHORE WED EVENING. PREVIOUS MRF RUN COMPARED TO CURRENT
RUN SHOWS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK OF SFC LOW DURING DAY
THURS. LATEST RUN IS BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND BOTH PRETTY CLOSE TO
SAME AMTS QPF(.10-.20) W/ SLIGHT SHIFT BASED ON SFC LOW TRACK. TEMPS
STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND WILL PROBABLY BUMP POPS/AND
CHECK SNOW TOTALS FROM PREVIOUS ZONES. SW FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW WONT
ALLOW THIS LOW TO BE TOO "MOISTURE STARVED"...BUT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF CWA COULD SEE MOST AT THE ONSET DURING THE DAY...THEN
NORTHERN PORTIONS GETTING ADDITIONAL SN DUE TO WRAP-AROUND THURS
NITE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WK SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION LATE AFTERNOON FRI INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...W/ SOME POSSIBLE LEFTOVER FLURRIES IN NE KINGDOM DUE TO
EXITING LOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND TRACKS SE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NITE.
THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE THURS.
SYSTEM...AND THUS WILL HAVE MOISTURE CUT-OFF...WITH BULK REMAINING
OVER MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BASED ON TRACK...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA
SHOULD SEE BULK OF -SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILSON









FXUS61 KBTV 171931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
231 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE
VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AND ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOWS.
WILL GO LIKELY OR GREATER OVER ALL BUT EASTERN VERMONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1...SHOULD
ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES MOST AREAS.  SECONDARY SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STRONGEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS/HALF INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SO AGAIN...
PRECIPITATION TO BE GENERATED FROM DYNAMIC SUPPORT OF UPPER LOW.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS.  CLOSED 500 MB LOW
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION APPEARS IT MAY PERSIST WHICH WOULD KEEP
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED TO 700
MB...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST
AS WELL...SO THIS EVENT MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS UPSLOPE EVENT.  SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL
WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING TAKING PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...
SFC RIDGE MVS EAST OVER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY NITE...THEN
OVER CWA/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. W/ EXITING SYSTEM
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL KEEP SOME CLD COVER OVER CWA WED. BUT SHOULD
BE PRETTY DECENT DAY. MRF THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY GIVING SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM OVERNITE LOWS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

NEXT "CLIPPER"/SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION IS LATE WED. NITE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS LOW QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH MVS OFFSHORE WED EVENING. PREVIOUS MRF RUN COMPARED TO CURRENT
RUN SHOWS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK OF SFC LOW DURING DAY
THURS. LATEST RUN IS BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND BOTH PRETTY CLOSE TO
SAME AMTS QPF(.10-.20) W/ SLIGHT SHIFT BASED ON SFC LOW TRACK. TEMPS
STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND WILL PROBABLY BUMP POPS/AND
CHECK SNOW TOTALS FROM PREVIOUS ZONES. SW FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW WONT
ALLOW THIS LOW TO BE TOO "MOISTURE STARVED"...BUT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF CWA COULD SEE MOST AT THE ONSET DURING THE DAY...THEN
NORTHERN PORTIONS GETTING ADDITIONAL SN DUE TO WRAP-AROUND THURS
NITE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WK SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION LATE AFTERNOON FRI INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...W/ SOME POSSIBLE LEFTOVER FLURRIES IN NE KINGDOM DUE TO
EXITING LOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND TRACKS SE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NITE.
THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE THURS.
SYSTEM...AND THUS WILL HAVE MOISTURE CUT-OFF...WITH BULK REMAINING
OVER MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BASED ON TRACK...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA
SHOULD SEE BULK OF -SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILSON






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

172
ASUS51 KBTV 181105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-181200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  20  16  84 S8        29.55F FOG
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  11   8  88 CALM      29.59F FOG
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  12   9  87 S3        29.58F FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     11   7  84 CALM      29.59F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    23  16  74 SE10      29.55F WCI  12
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    18  12  77 CALM      29.62F
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    40  22  48 VRB3      29.55F



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