On Thu, 15 Jan 2004 08:56:30 -0500, Michael Bernstein
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>I've been watching the forecast pretty closely - where the hell did this
>come from?  I never saw anything about it until this morning.  Not that
>I'm complaining, mind you.  The potential for 4-8" or more just before the
>weekend is just what the doctor ordered.  What does Doppler 3K have to say
>about this?

I'm asking the same questions you are right now too.  Where the hell did
that come from?  I still don't see much that would allude to a significant
upslope event.  Model liquid forecast is very low, but it will be the
lightest snow you've ever seen.  The flow isn't in the usual significant
upslope direction as it is coming more from the due north almost as
opposed to the northwest.  Northwest flow favors the mountains of eastern
Chittenden, Franklin, and Addison counties such as Bolton.  But the
northerly flow will favor Jay and Smuggs.  I'm not sure if I see where the
4-8 with locally more comes from, but I'd say 3-6 in the mountains is
possible because in this cold air, any lifting will produce very light,
fine snowflakes.  I don't see where they get 2-4 inches for the Champlain
Valley though...from what I've witnessed this fall and early winter, these
things very rarely leave any more than a trace of snowfall in the large
valley.  Half inch in the CPV...maybe with the exception of Franklin
County up north may see an inch or two.

I'm interested in seeing how the NWS handles it in the afternoon forecast


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