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Expires:200401212100;;455953
FPUS51 KBTV 210919
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST WED JAN 21 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-212100-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
420 AM EST WED JAN 21 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 10 TO 15. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW LATE. LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW...THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30
PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 20 TO 25. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING
WEST LATE. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
ZERO TO 5 BELOW. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 5 TO
10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 10 TO
15. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
ZERO TO 5 BELOW. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 210904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST WED JAN 21 2004

.DISC...CLDS LINGERING ACRS MCH OF FA ERLY THIS MRNG IN NW FLOW
REGIME. XPCT CLDS TO GRDLY DSPT THIS MRNG AS SFC RDG AXIS MVS ACRS
RGN SO FAIR AMT OF SUN XPCTD.  CONTD COLD WITH TMPS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WL BE LGT.

CLRG WL BE SHORT LIVED AS RDG MVS E TNGT WITH WAA CLDS AHD OF NXT
SYS MVG IN.  MDLS SMLR IN SHWG S/WV LIFTG RPDLY ACRS FA LT TNGT
WITH PD OF ISEN LIFT.  JUST A BRF SHOT OF QG FORCG MVS THRU OVRNGT
AND MSTR LMTD SO NOT XPCTG MCH QPF.  HAV KEPT LKLY POPS ACRS W ZNS
WHERE BEST FORCG TAPERING TO CHC ACRS E ZNS.  DONT XPCT MCH MORE
THAN 1" ACCUM.  LOWS WL BE REACHED DURG ERLY EVENING THEN RISG
OVRNGT.  COLDEST TMPS ACRS NERN VT WHERE SUBZERO MINS LKLY.

INITL S/WV ENERGY AND DEEPER MSTR LIFTS N OF RGN BY THU MRNG SO XPCT
LULL IN PCPN THEN SCNDRY STG S/WV AND DEEPENING WRAPARND MSTR APCHS
DURG AFTN WHEN SNW SHWR ACTVTY SHD INCREASE.  ASSCD CDFOPA XPCTD
DURG LT MRNG AND AFTN.  1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES BCM QUITE UNSTABLE
BHND FNT (7-8 C/KM) SO HVIER SQUALLS LKLY.  HIEST POPS ACRS W ZNS
WHERE BEST MSTR AND LIFT FM S/WV.  MAX TMPS SHD GET INTO 20S BUT
FALLING BHND FROPA.

SCT SNW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THU NGT AS STG S/WV MVS THRU.  S/WV
EXITS RGN AFT 06Z BUT NW FLOW AND MSTR WL KEEP SNW SHWRS GOING IN
FVRD UPSLOPE AREAS.  CAA CONTS THU NGT WITH MIN TMPS LKLY FALLING
AOB ZERO ACRS NRN ZNS WHICH COMBINED WITH WIND WL LKLY DRIVE WIND
CHILLS TO ADVSY CRITERIA BLO -20.

COLD NW FLOW FRI WITH CHC FLRYS/SNW SHWRS AND TMPS MAINLY IN SINGLE
NMBRS N AND 10-15 S.  BYND FRI...CNDN MODEL MORE AGRESSV THAN GFS
IN BLDG ARCTIC RDG SWD AND KEEPING FA MOCLR AND DRY.  GFS FTHR N
WITH RDG AND TRIES TO PUSH MSTR AHD OF CLIPPER SYS INTO FA SAT/SAT
NGT.  MADE NO CHGS TO THIS PD SO LEANING TWD CNDN SOLN.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

KJC







FXUS61 KBTV 210300
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2004

.UPDATE...
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CHAMPLAIN
VLY AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. CANADIAN RADAR LOOP
COMPOSITE SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING TO DIMINISH OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC ATTM. HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AND NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP SKIES AS
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL WORD FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.  OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL DEALING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW STILL CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.  WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE WIND SPEEDS AND MOISTURE DIMINISH EVEN
FURTHER.  HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY.  SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT
EITHER WAY FORECAST AREA IS IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WHEN DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 700 MB.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS.  SNOW RATIOS WILL BE RATHER HIGH...SO EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY...WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN.  TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE FALLING BELOW -20C FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO ALL AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.  FORECAST AREA TO BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
DRIEST AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.  COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB
WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN -24C AND -28C AT THIS LEVEL.  WHILE THIS TRANSLATES TO
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WITH READINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL...IT WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE LAST EVENT.  WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES UPWARD
JUST A BIT IN THE EXTENDED AS A RESULT...WHICH WILL ALSO BLEND VERY
WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GRIDS/THINKING.  BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WEST BY MONDAY...THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
EXTENDED OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 201925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
225 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2004

.SHORT TERM...
STILL DEALING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW STILL CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.  WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE WIND SPEEDS AND MOISTURE DIMINISH EVEN
FURTHER.  HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY.  SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT
EITHER WAY FORECAST AREA IS IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WHEN DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 700 MB.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS.  SNOW RATIOS WILL BE RATHER HIGH...SO EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY...WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN.  TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE FALLING BELOW -20C FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.  FORECAST AREA TO BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
DRIEST AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.  COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB
WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN -24C AND -28C AT THIS LEVEL.  WHILE THIS TRANSLATES TO
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WITH READINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL...IT WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE LAST EVENT.  WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES UPWARD
JUST A BIT IN THE EXTENDED AS A RESULT...WHICH WILL ALSO BLEND VERY
WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GRIDS/THINKING.  BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WEST BY MONDAY...THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
EXTENDED OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

EVENSON





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

287
ASUS51 KBTV 211105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 21 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-211200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY     7   0  73 CALM      30.10R
MONTPELIER     CLEAR      1  -3  83 CALM      30.02R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY     6  -1  73 N7        30.04R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A      3  -3  76 CALM      30.02R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY     1  -2  85 CALM      30.04R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    10  -1  61 VRB3      30.01S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY     3  -3  76 S5        30.05R



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