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On Thu, 15 Jan 2004 17:11:45 -0500, Michael Bernstein
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>On Thu, 15 Jan 2004 16:30:38 -0500, Bruno deBiasi <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:
>
>>Looks like that snow is not to materialize significantly for Friday
>>according to lates forecast. Oh well...
>>
>>- Bruno
>>
>
>Yep.  The afternoon NWS forecast as posted on MRG.com has completely backed
>off on the previous 4-8" stuff, with only a chance of snow showers tonight
>through tomorrow night.  Roemer is calling for a potential of 1-3".  Any
>little bit helps I suppose.  The good news is that Roemer is now calling
>for a potential 3-6" espisode on Sunday night and Monday.  Still too far
>away to know for sure of course, but it sounds good for the moment.
>

I'm just going to have a little conversation with myself here.  After
resigning to the fact that there would be little, if any snow in the offing
for VT in the next 36 hours, I read the Skiing Weatherman.  He seems to be
towing the party line on a 4-8" snowfall for Stowe northward.  To wit:

"The other area that is in for some snow over the next couple days is far
northern New York and far northern New England. The cause of the snow is
very unusual…warm air approaching from the north. That’s right, the north.
The upper low causing the cold in the northeast has an elongated dual
center structure to it, with one center over the Maritimes, and the other
over eastern Ontario. As the upper low and the core of the cold air moves
further eastward into the Maritimes, the flow on the backside will still be
quite cold, but it will be relatively warmer than the air in the center of
the circulation. Now, if you have been to Montreal, you know that as you
head southward, back towards the U.S., you can see the Adirondacks and the
Green Mountains rising above the plains that lead to the St. Lawrence
River. Well, imagine a northwesterly flow of air, headed toward those
mountains…. when the air gets to the mountains, up it goes, forced up by
orographic lifting. This process causes clouds to form, and when temps are
this cold, it doesn’t take much lift at all to squeeze out the available
moisture. That moisture will have come all the way around the low from the
Atlantic…it won’t be juicy, by any means, but it will be enough to set off
snow in those mountains late tonight and tomorrow…on the order of 4-8
inches of fluff. You may not be able to withstand the cold tomorrow, but
rest assured, from Whiteface to Jay Peak, Owl’s Head, Stowe, Bolton Valley
and Smugglers’ and eastward to The Balsams Wilderness, the fresh snow will
be waiting for you Saturday morning. The mountains a little further south,
such as Sugarbush, Killington, Pico, Burke, Cannon, and Bretton Woods will
also pick up some of this warm advection snow, but their amounts will be a
little less, as the first mountains get the lions share of the available
moisture."

Fingers and toes crossed.

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