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Expires:200402082100;;889520
FPUS51 KBTV 080825
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-082100-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
325 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 15. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TEENS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
5 TO 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 20 TO 25.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 20 TO 25.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
NEAR 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 080908 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2004

CURRENTLY...VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS FA AT THIS HOUR...WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES/SHSN ONGOING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT...WHERE KMVL AND
KMPV HAVE BEEN REPORTING STEADY -SN/BLSN. DESPITE WELL MIXED BNDRY
LYR TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
10 TO 15 ACROSS S VT TO 0 TO 10 ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. TEMPS A TAD COLDER ACROSS N NY WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE...WHERE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND SOME
DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED.

TODAY INTO MONDAY...500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TO CROSS AND PASS EAST OF
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT SFC AND MID LEVELS
OCCURRING BY AFTERNOON. THUS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 925
TO 850 HPA SHOULD THIN ACROSS HIGHER ELEV DURING DAY. WHILE SFC
FLOW REMAINS WNW...MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SW...WITH DECENT 850-700
HPA WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THUS PARTLY SUNNY LOOKS ON TRACK. MAX TEMPS TO
REMAIN SOME 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN
CROSS AREA DURING EVENING HOURS WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...ESP ACROSS WIDER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY
HERE...AS WELL MIXED LOCALES TO SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
WHILE AREAS THAT DECOUPLE WILL SEE MIN TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER.
WILL ADVERTISE THIS THINKING...WITH MILDER TEMPS WEST AND COOLER
TEMPS EAST OF GREENS TONIGHT AS A RESULT. BY MONDAY SFC GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS WEAK SFC LOW RIDES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ONT INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC. PLENTY OF WIND AT MID LEVELS AS WELL WITH LATEST
BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATING 50+ KNOTS AT 850 HPA. THUS WILL
HIGHLIGHT STRONGER WINDS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP DACKS WHERE
WINDY WORDING WILL BE INTRODUCED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING
THIS PERIOD AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF REGION INTO E
CANADA AT 925 TO 850 RH PROGS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS DURING
PERIOD...THOUGH W TO WSW FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN SPINE OF GREENS AND ALSO ACROSS DACKS WHERE
FAVORABLE 250-270 FLOW SHOULD PUSH LK ONT SHSN ACTIVITY INTO THIS
AREA.

WEDNESDAY NT ONWARDS...NO CHANGES THIS PERIOD. LINGERING SHSN/FLURRY
ACTIVITY WANES WED NT...THEN DRY THU INTO FRI AS FLOW BACKS TO WSW
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIVING SE TOWARDS REGION
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE SIGNIFICANT CROSS-POLAR FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR TO AFFECT
REGION BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JMG
AVIATION...RJS

$$
















FXUS61 KBTV 080241 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2004

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO FA...ST LWRNC VLY AND DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS EVENTUALLY FILTERING ELSEWHERE OVRNGT. THERE ARE STL SOME
SCT -SHSN ACRS UPSLOPE REGIONS BUT ALL IS COVERED BY EXISTING FCST.

GIVEN THAT FACT...NO UPDATE NEEDED.

SLW

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTS ACRS CONUS WITH TROF OVER EASTERN
US...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TROF ACRS THE INTER-MTN
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS HAVE
HELPED TO ENHANCE -SW ACTIVITY ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...ENHANCEMENT TO RETURNS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN/ADIRONDACK MTNS. TEMPS WITH MC SKIES CONT IN THE L20S WESTERN
CWA TO L30S SOUTHERN FA.

TONIGHT...VIS PIC AND BUFKIT PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST SKIES
CLRING ACRS WESTERN CWA BTWN 00-03Z AND REST OF FCST AREA AROUND
06Z. WL MENTION EVENING -SW ACRS MTNS ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...LLVL LAPSE RATES...AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ACCUMULATIONS
WL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS...MAYBE AN
INCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WITH 925H TEMPS NEAR -20C AND UPSTREAM LOWS
AOB ZERO FEEL COLDER LOCATIONS WL DROP BELOW 0F...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN NY MTNS VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA WITH STRONG LLVL
WAA DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THE LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FORCING WL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING AND MENTION CHC -SW
SUNDAY ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS LATE...WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE IS THE BEST.
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES WITH NEXT 5H VORT
AND SFC LOW PRES. WL KEEP MONDAY DRY ATTM...BUT INCREASE CLOUDS
ACRS WESTERN CWA. CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT
SWEEPS ACRS OUR CWA MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR
-SW. CRNT FCST HAS THIS COVERED...THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE
ANTICIPATED ATTM. SW SFC FLOW AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -8C
SUPPORT TEMPS AOA NORMAL LVLS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS/THICKNESS
PROFILE LOOKS VERY SIMILAR...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

.EXTENDED (TUE NGT-SAT)...MEAN TROF ACRS GT LKS DURG MOST OF THIS
PD GRDLY SHIFTING EWD ACRS NE NXT WEEKEND AS N POLE POLAR VORTEX
SINKS SWD TO ERN CANADA LKLY BRINING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST FOR LTR
NXT WEEKEND.  TMPS DURG THIS PD SHD BE NR SEASONABLE LVLS ALTHO OP
GFS MOS TMPS LOOK TOO WRM AND ARE ACTUALLY THE WRMST OF ALL THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO TRIMMED TMPS CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEAN.  DUE TO
TIMG UNCERTAINTY WITH ARCTIC CDFNT NXT WEEKEND DIDN'T STRAY FAR FM
TEMP GUIDANCE NXT SAT AS BRUNT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY OCCUR BYND SAT.
FOR SENSIBLE WX...KEPT CHC SNW SHWRS TUE NGT-WED NGT WITH MEAN TROF
W OF FA AND SERIES OF S/WVS MOVG THRU THEN MSTLY DRY THRU FRI WITH
SFC RDGG.  CHC SNW SHWRS AGN FRI NGT/SAT ASSCD WITH ARCTIC FNT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...CADIMA

$$














FXUS61 KBTV 071920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2004

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTS ACRS CONUS WITH TROF OVER EASTERN
US...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TROF ACRS THE INTER-MTN
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS HAVE
HELPED TO ENHANCE -SW ACTIVITY ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...ENHANCEMENT TO RETURNS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN/ADIRONDACK MTNS. TEMPS WITH MC SKIES CONT IN THE L20S WESTERN
CWA TO L30S SOUTHERN FA.

TONIGHT...VIS PIC AND BUFKIT PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST SKIES
CLRING ACRS WESTERN CWA BTWN 00-03Z AND REST OF FCST AREA AROUND
06Z. WL MENTION EVENING -SW ACRS MTNS ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...LLVL LAPSE RATES...AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ACCUMULATIONS
WL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS...MAYBE AN
INCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WITH 925H TEMPS NEAR -20C AND UPSTREAM LOWS
AOB ZERO FEEL COLDER LOCATIONS WL DROP BELOW 0F...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN NY MTNS VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA WITH STRONG LLVL
WAA DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THE LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FORCING WL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING AND MENTION CHC -SW
SUNDAY ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS LATE...WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE IS THE BEST.
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES WITH NEXT 5H VORT
AND SFC LOW PRES. WL KEEP MONDAY DRY ATTM...BUT INCREASE CLOUDS
ACRS WESTERN CWA. CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT
SWEEPS ACRS OUR CWA MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR
-SW. CRNT FCST HAS THIS COVERED...THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE
ANTICIPATED ATTM. SW SFC FLOW AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -8C
SUPPORT TEMPS AOA NORMAL LVLS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS/THICKNESS
PROFILE LOOKS VERY SIMILAR...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

.EXTENDED (TUE NGT-SAT)...MEAN TROF ACRS GT LKS DURG MOST OF THIS
PD GRDLY SHIFTING EWD ACRS NE NXT WEEKEND AS N POLE POLAR VORTEX
SINKS SWD TO ERN CANADA LKLY BRINING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST FOR LTR
NXT WEEKEND.  TMPS DURG THIS PD SHD BE NR SEASONABLE LVLS ALTHO OP
GFS MOS TMPS LOOK TOO WRM AND ARE ACTUALLY THE WRMST OF ALL THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO TRIMMED TMPS CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEAN.  DUE TO
TIMG UNCERTAINTY WITH ARCTIC CDFNT NXT WEEKEND DIDN'T STRAY FAR FM
TEMP GUIDANCE NXT SAT AS BRUNT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY OCCUR BYND SAT.
FOR SENSIBLE WX...KEPT CHC SNW SHWRS TUE NGT-WED NGT WITH MEAN TROF
W OF FA AND SERIES OF S/WVS MOVG THRU THEN MSTLY DRY THRU FRI WITH
SFC RDGG.  CHC SNW SHWRS AGN FRI NGT/SAT ASSCD WITH ARCTIC FNT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...CADIMA

$$











   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

404
ASUS51 KBTV 081105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN FEB 08 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-081200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY     3  -9  57 NW9       30.11R
MONTPELIER     CLEAR      0  -6  76 NW17      30.00R BLWGSNOWWCI -21
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     -1 -10  65 CALM      30.04R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A      1  -8  66 VRB3      29.97R
RUTLAND        CLEAR      3  -8  60 N6        30.04R
SPRINGFIELD    MIX PCPN   7  -7  52 NW14G24   30.02R WCI -10
BENNINGTON     CLEAR      7  -7  52 NW9       30.06R



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