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Expires:200404142000;;375475
FPUS51 KBTV 140859
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EDT WED APR 14 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-142000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
459 AM EDT WED APR 14 2004

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS 30 TO 35. NORTH WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 15
TO 25 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 20 TO 25. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20
MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 50 TO 55. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 30 TO 35.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
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FXUS61 KBTV 141014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
614 AM EDT WED APR 14 2004

HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF FOG
EXTENDING DOWN TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS DOWN IN
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ATTM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TODAY FOR
SHOWERS AND WILL ALSO MENTION A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED NEAR ALB AT 09Z WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP COOL
AIR IN ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
RAIN WILL CHANCE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.

00Z MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLIER
ON THURSDAY...SO WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
VERMONT ZONES AND THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NEW YORK. REGION SHOULD
SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
APPROACH THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 00Z GFS MODEL HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...CANADIAN SEF MODEL SUGGESTS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY. GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...
WILL STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

HEAVY RAINS THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE CAUSED SOME
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS OVERNIGHT...BUT CHECK OF LATEST
RIVER GAGE READINGS SHOW THESE ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TODAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 140202
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE TWEAKED TONIGHT PERIOD ALL ELEMENTS. AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP UP TIL 07Z PER 00Z RUC THEN TAPER TO AREAS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND FOG. A LULL IN THE ACTION UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY....THERE THE
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AN END IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LATE
AFTERNOON BREAKS ON THE CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURE FLAT LINED IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  DON'T SEE MUCH
CHANGE IN THAT OVER NIGHT. THAT TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CARRY OVER INTO TOMORROW AS WELL. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE SHOWING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES INDICATIVE
OF THE INVERSION ALOFT AS SEEN IN THE ALY SOUNDING. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A BIT FOR TOMORROW AS RAIN REDEVELOPS IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SHOULD
BECOMING MOSTLY MVFR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT RAIN MOVING BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTH COULD SPELL CONTINUED IFR ESPECIALLY AT MPV. KMSS SHOULD
SEE THE MOST IMPROVEMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON
TO VFR AND SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE AFTERNOON RAIN FROM
KSLK-KBTV POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...420 PM EDT TUE APR 13 2004
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ASSOCD WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
MOVG FROM TENNESSEE VLY TO MID ATLC STATES THRU WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
OFFSHORE WED NITE INTO THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN
THRU WED NITE...WITH HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR FIRST HALF OF
TONITE (MAX PW'S ARE EARLY TONITE...AROUND 1.25 INCHES). SFC LOW
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF VIRGINIA ATTM. A SECOND LOW TAKING SHAPE
FURTHER NORTH ALG SFC TROF IN SRN PA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEWRD
TONITE THRU NYS TONITE INTO QUE BY WED AM. LOW HANGING BACK IN MID
ATLC STATES WILL THEN MOVE NEWRD INTO SRN NEW ENG WED/WED NITE AND
THEN MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFF NEW ENG CST DURING THURS TO ALLOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

TONITE: TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN EALIER THIS PM ARE BEGINNING
TO MERGE AS THEY LIFT NORTH INTO FA. ONE AREA OVER WRN PA/NY WILL
BRING HVY RAIN INTO NW NYS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONITE. SECOND AREA
OVER SE NYS AND SRN NEW ENG WILL BRING THREAT OF HVY RAIN INTO ERN
VT THRU 06Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM .75 TO 1.5 INCHES. IN CHMPLN VLY AND NW VT...EXPECT AMTS
TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH LOCALIZED 1 INCH TOTALS PSBL.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONITE...AS LTG DETECTION
NOT AS ACTIVE UPSTREAM AS IT WAS EARLIER. BUT CAN'T RULE OUT RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHC OVER SRN VT
AND ADRNDKS. MIN TEMPS TONITE FROM CHMPLN VLY EAST WILL BE AT
00Z...WITH RISING TEMPS OVRNGHT. IN NRN NY...EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE FOR MUCH OF NITE...BUT THEN COOL TO AROUND 40 BY
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT INTO NORTH.

WED THRU THURS: HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE DEPARTED BEHIND FIRST SFC LOW
BY WED AM. SECOND LOW MOVG INTO SRN NEW ENG WILL BRING ANOTHER
THREAT OF RAIN TO RGN DURING WED PM/NITE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST
POPS BOTH PERIODS OVER ERN ZONES...TAPERING LOWER AS YOU HEAD WEST
(ONLY CHC POPS ST LWR). AIRMASS COOLS WED NITE ALLOWING FOR PSBL MIX
OR CHANGOVR TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS RGN. BULK OF QPF WILL
FALL AS LIQUID HOWEVER...AS ATMOS BEGINS TO DRY AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. BUT SOME ACCUM PSBL...MAINLY OVR ADRNDKS AND HIR TRRN OF
NRN VT. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST ON THURS...WITH RESULT
BEING AN END TO ANY SHWRS FOLLOWED BY CLRNG SKIES. MAIN FCST PROBLEM
FOR THURS WILL BE HOW LONG TO HANG ON TO CLDS AND CHC PCPN IN VT
ZONES.

THURS NITE/FRI: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER FA DURING THIS TIMER
PERIOD...RESULTING IN M/CLR SKIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS
NITE...BUT TEMPS REBOUND TO AOA NORMAL ON FRI.

&&

.EXTENDED...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS SE CONUS AS BOARD SW FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER FA. THIS WL PROVIDE CWA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIMITED CHCS FOR PRECIP SAT THRU NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL WAA/5H VORT WL COMBINED WITH SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WL CONT TO WATCH POSITION/MOVEMENT OF BACKDOOR FRNT OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH FRNT POSITION...THUS 85H TEMPS COOL TO 2C ACRS OUR
NORTHERN FA. ENSEMBLE DATA CONTS TO SUPPORT 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C ON
SUNDAY AND WARMING TO BTWN 8-10C ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH MAX MIXING. NEXT WEAK FRNT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/LIFT WL PUSH ACRS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.HYDRO...
HAVE REISSUED ESFBTV. THE RAINFALL AMTS TONITE ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS...BUT RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD. SITUATION WILL NEED TO MONITORED
THRU WED NITE HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ERN VT WHERE SIGNIFICANT QPF
PSBL AGAIN WED PM/NITE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

RJS/BOT











FXUS61 KBTV 132025
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 PM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ASSOCD WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
MOVG FROM TENNESSEE VLY TO MID ATLC STATES THRU WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
OFFSHORE WED NITE INTO THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN
THRU WED NITE...WITH HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR FIRST HALF OF
TONITE (MAX PW'S ARE EARLY TONITE...AROUND 1.25 INCHES). SFC LOW
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF VIRGINIA ATTM. A SECOND LOW TAKING SHAPE
FURTHER NORTH ALG SFC TROF IN SRN PA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEWRD
TONITE THRU NYS TONITE INTO QUE BY WED AM. LOW HANGING BACK IN MID
ATLC STATES WILL THEN MOVE NEWRD INTO SRN NEW ENG WED/WED NITE AND
THEN MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFF NEW ENG CST DURING THURS TO ALLOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

TONITE: TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN EALIER THIS PM ARE BEGINNING
TO MERGE AS THEY LIFT NORTH INTO FA. ONE AREA OVER WRN PA/NY WILL
BRING HVY RAIN INTO NW NYS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONITE. SECOND AREA
OVER SE NYS AND SRN NEW ENG WILL BRING THREAT OF HVY RAIN INTO ERN
VT THRU 06Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM .75 TO 1.5 INCHES. IN CHMPLN VLY AND NW VT...EXPECT AMTS
TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH LOCALIZED 1 INCH TOTALS PSBL.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONITE...AS LTG DETECTION
NOT AS ACTIVE UPSTREAM AS IT WAS EARLIER. BUT CAN'T RULE OUT RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHC OVER SRN VT
AND ADRNDKS. MIN TEMPS TONITE FROM CHMPLN VLY EAST WILL BE AT
00Z...WITH RISING TEMPS OVRNGHT. IN NRN NY...EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE FOR MUCH OF NITE...BUT THEN COOL TO AROUND 40 BY
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT INTO NORTH.

WED THRU THURS: HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE DEPARTED BEHIND FIRST SFC LOW
BY WED AM. SECOND LOW MOVG INTO SRN NEW ENG WILL BRING ANOTHER
THREAT OF RAIN TO RGN DURING WED PM/NITE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST
POPS BOTH PERIODS OVER ERN ZONES...TAPERING LOWER AS YOU HEAD WEST
(ONLY CHC POPS ST LWR). AIRMASS COOLS WED NITE ALLOWING FOR PSBL MIX
OR CHANGOVR TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS RGN. BULK OF QPF WILL
FALL AS LIQUID HOWEVER...AS ATMOS BEGINS TO DRY AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. BUT SOME ACCUM PSBL...MAINLY OVR ADRNDKS AND HIR TRRN OF
NRN VT. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST ON THURS...WITH RESULT
BEING AN END TO ANY SHWRS FOLLOWED BY CLRNG SKIES. MAIN FCST PROBLEM
FOR THURS WILL BE HOW LONG TO HANG ON TO CLDS AND CHC PCPN IN VT
ZONES.

THURS NITE/FRI: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER FA DURING THIS TIMER
PERIOD...RESULTING IN M/CLR SKIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS
NITE...BUT TEMPS REBOUND TO AOA NORMAL ON FRI.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS SE CONUS AS BOARD SW FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER FA. THIS WL PROVIDE CWA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIMITED CHCS FOR PRECIP SAT THRU NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL WAA/5H VORT WL COMBINED WITH SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WL CONT TO WATCH POSITION/MOVEMENT OF BACKDOOR FRNT OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH FRNT POSITION...THUS 85H TEMPS COOL TO 2C ACRS OUR
NORTHERN FA. ENSEMBLE DATA CONTS TO SUPPORT 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C ON
SUNDAY AND WARMING TO BTWN 8-10C ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH MAX MIXING. NEXT WEAK FRNT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/LIFT WL PUSH ACRS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

HYDRO: HAVE REISSUED ESFBTV. THE RAINFALL AMTS TONITE ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS...BUT RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD. SITUATION WILL NEED TO MONITORED
THRU WED NITE HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ERN VT WHERE SIGNIFICANT QPF
PSBL AGAIN WED PM/NITE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

673
ASUS51 KBTV 141011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED APR 14 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-141100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  39  38  96 N12       29.68R FOG
MONTPELIER     FOG       42  42 100 CALM      29.63F VSB 3/4
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    44  43  96 N6        29.64R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     46  46 100 S3        29.59F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    50  46  87 NE5       29.60R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    40  40 100 CALM      29.63S FOG
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    57  53  86 SW5       29.59R



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