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FPUS51 KBTV 070805
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-072244-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. MUCH COLDER
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND
60. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 070803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SHOULD REACH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z...AND SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY. NO PRECIP WITH THE FROPA...JUST CLOUDS CLEARING OUT THIS
EVENING AS DRY AND COOL AIR MOVES ACROSS REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OVERNIGHT...CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING FOR A NEAR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SCENARIO. WENT BELOW GFS GUIDANCE...TOWARD ETA MOS NUMBERS
FOR USUAL COLD SPOTS...LIKE 17 DEGREES TONIGHT AT SARANAC LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RETURN FLOW. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING PRECIP CLOSE TO
SRN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY...SO HAVE CHC POPS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.

CONSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BROAD WESTERLY
FLOW. MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES NORTH IN CANADA...WHILE MCS
DEBRIS/CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES FROM NRN PLAINS CONVECTION
PASS BY TO THE SOUTH.  VT/NRN NEW YORK CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
TWO...REMAINING MOSTLY DRY AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FINALLY SEE A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHEN
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WESTERN US...CAUSING HEIGHTS TO RISE
IN THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

HANSON










FXUS61 KBTV 070112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
910 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS NOTED IN KBUF
VICINITY. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY CLEARED MAJORITY OF WESTERN
ZONES...AND FEEL THAT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THAT OUR
CWA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AFTER THEN. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN ZONES THOUGH FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR A LITTLE LONGER AFTER
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY UNTIL MORNING WHEN
MUCH DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO FRESHEN UP
PRECIPITATION WORDING...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

LAHIFF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM...

SHORT TERM...STRONG W-NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THRU THE WEEKEND.
RESULT WILL BE RATHER RAPID DAY TO DAY CHANGES...BUT BULK OF ACTIVE
WX EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF BTV CWA THRU THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT: CDFNT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACRSS GRTLKS WILL BE PASSING THRU
FA TONITE. MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND
IMPACT OF FRONT. STLT PICS AND RADAR INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
THNDSTRMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN.
COMBINATION OF A LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER FA AND FACT THAT FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN THE AREA OF CONVECTION MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WILL INHIBIT THREAT OF SVR CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION
OF TSRA FOR NRN NY ZONES AND SC VT THRU MIDNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHC SHWRS FOR REMAINDER OF FA.

FRI: FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF RGN AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS. MORNING CLDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN 50S. BRISK NW WNDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER.

FRI NITE: CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACRS FA. EXPECT M/CLR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WNDS ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
PSBL.

SAT THRU SUN: FRONT OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHO IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF FA THRU THE WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DISTURBANCES
MOVG EAST IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE COLD HIGH DEPARTS
SAT AM...EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS ALG WITH CHC SHWRS SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVEN. HIGH PRES THEN BLDS IN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED...FLOW ALOFT BECMS ZONAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACRS CONUS
WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY. FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS FA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CRNT
12Z GFS RUN LOOKS TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...BASED ON
OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED QPF AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES
ALONG FRNT. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. SYSTEM QUICK
MVS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLRING EXPECTED BY LATE
MONDAY AFTN. TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK FRNT DROP ACRS FA...BUT WITH
LIMITED LIFT/MOISTURE WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL BUILD INTO CWA TUES AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 7C SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 60S. WEDS-THURS...LATEST ENSEMBLES
DATA AND 12Z GFS RUN SUPPORTS BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS
EASTERN CONUS. WL HAVE BRIEF SHOT FOR -RW WEDS NITE ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA LIFT/MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C SUPPORT
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE A FEW 80S IN THE VALLEYS BY NEXT
THURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT








FXUS61 KBTV 062004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

SHORT TERM...STRONG W-NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THRU THE WEEKEND.
RESULT WILL BE RATHER RAPID DAY TO DAY CHANGES...BUT BULK OF ACTIVE
WX EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF BTV CWA THRU THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT: CDFNT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACRSS GRTLKS WILL BE PASSING THRU
FA TONITE. MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND
IMPACT OF FRONT. STLT PICS AND RADAR INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
THNDSTRMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN.
COMBINATION OF A LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER FA AND FACT THAT FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN THE AREA OF CONVECTION MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WILL INHIBIT THREAT OF SVR CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION
OF TSRA FOR NRN NY ZONES AND SC VT THRU MIDNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHC SHWRS FOR REMAINDER OF FA.

FRI: FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF RGN AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS. MORNING CLDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN 50S. BRISK NW WNDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER.

FRI NITE: CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACRS FA. EXPECT M/CLR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WNDS ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
PSBL.

SAT THRU SUN: FRONT OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHO IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF FA THRU THE WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DISTURBANCES
MOVG EAST IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE COLD HIGH DEPARTS
SAT AM...EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS ALG WITH CHC SHWRS SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVEN. HIGH PRES THEN BLDS IN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED...FLOW ALOFT BECMS ZONAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACRS CONUS
WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY. FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS FA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CRNT
12Z GFS RUN LOOKS TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...BASED ON
OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED QPF AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES
ALONG FRNT. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. SYSTEM QUICK
MVS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLRING EXPECTED BY LATE
MONDAY AFTN. TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK FRNT DROP ACRS FA...BUT WITH
LIMITED LIFT/MOISTURE WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL BUILD INTO CWA TUES AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 7C SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 60S. WEDS-THURS...LATEST ENSEMBLES
DATA AND 12Z GFS RUN SUPPORTS BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS
EASTERN CONUS. WL HAVE BRIEF SHOT FOR -RW WEDS NITE ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA LIFT/MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C SUPPORT
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE A FEW 80S IN THE VALLEYS BY NEXT
THURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

270
ASUS51 KBTV 071011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 07 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-071100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    61  47  59 W12       29.89R
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    60  49  66 W13G20    29.91R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     48  47  96 CALM      29.85R
RUTLAND        MOCLDY    61  50  67 W8        29.92R
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    49  47  93 CALM      29.97R FOG



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