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Expires:200405012100;;772816
FPUS51 KBTV 010730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-012100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
330 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND BREEZY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 30.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 010648
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

CF (ALONG WITH A WK WAVE OF LOW PRESS) TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FA
TODAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESS TO RIDE UP THIS CF
TONITE...THEN THESE SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON SUN/SUN NITE AND
TO THE EAST OF THE FA ON MON. UPR TROF TO START TO MOVE IN ACRS THE
FA ON MON FROM THE WEST.

00-02Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M60S TO
NEAR 80F TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-15G20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE U70S-L80S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS
BASED ON THIS DATA. RUC SHOWS PTSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH
SCT PCPN BY THIS AFTERNOON. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW -SHRA
MOVING NE ACRS MUCH OF THE WRN/CENTRAL ZONES ATTM.

WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU SUN...THEN CAA TO
AFFECT THE FA ON SUN NITE/MON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE
FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH GOOD LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON SUN AND
MUCH OF SUN NITE AND INTO EARLY ON MON. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND ON MON AFTERNOON. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TODAY. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FA
TONITE THRU SUN NITE AND THE ERN ZONES EARLY ON MON. PW VALUES ACRS
THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.8-1.4" TODAY THRU SUN...THEN DROP TO AROUND AN
INCH ON SUN NITE...AND AOB 0.5" ON MON.

NOTED FA IN SPC GEN TSTM OUTLOOK TODAY AND TONITE. CAPES ACRS THE FA
TO BE 1-600 J/KG TODAY AND AOB 300 J/KG ON SUN. HAVE TAPERED POPS
FROM WEST (HIGHEST) TO EAST (LOWEST) ACRS THE FA TODAY. FEEL THAT
WITH A LACK OF ANY REAL TRIGGER AFFECTING THE FA TODAY THAT NOT MUCH
WILL END UP HAPPENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ACRS THE FA TODAY
THAN ON SUN...WITH THE WIND FIELD ALOFT LOOKING BETTER ACRS THE FA ON
SUN. WILL HANG ONTO THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
THRU SUN FOR NOW. WILL CONT WITH CHC POPS ACRS THE FA TONITE. LIKELY
POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN NITE LOOK LIKE A GOOD
IDEA WITH FRONTAL SYS AFFECTING THE FA THEN. SOME LINGERING PCPN
EXPECTED ACRS THE FA MOSTLY EARLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE ERN
ZONES. T1MAX TEMPS ARE BASICALLY 75-80F ACRS THE FA ON SUN AND WILL
GO BLO THESE VALUES BASED ON EXPECTED CLD COVER/PCPN THEN.

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND MON FOR NOW. WRK ZONES AND PRELIM
ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

MURRAY





FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2004

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS ALREADY SENT OUT WITH A FEW MINOR FIRST PERIOD
CHANGES. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WHICH INDICATE SHWRS MOVG
NEWRD INTO ST LWR VLY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR ALL OF NRN
NY...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN ST LWR VLY. TAPERED POPS AS YOU HEAD
EAST...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC THAT A SHWR OR TWO MAY MAKE IT INTO
CHMPLN VLY OVRNGHT. NO MENTION OF PCPN EASTERN VT. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS WHERE CLD COVER MINIMAL AND WNDS
LIGHT. MILDEST READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN CHMPLN VLY. NO CHANGES
BEYOND FIRST PERIOD.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
.SHORT TERM...NICE WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NY SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 70S AND WINDS OUT OF S/SW.
LATEST VIS SAT PIC SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH CLD STILL REMAINING OVER
PORTIONS OF CWA. DEWPT TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST MAINLY IN THE 40S...LEADING TO VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH RH'S
< 50% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...DELIVERING -RW TO
THAT AREA...WITH NO SIGNS OF LIGHTNING/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT HAS
DISSIPATED A BIT OVER PAST COUPLE HRS...BUT IS FORECASTED TO MV
NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT NEAR THE ST LAW VALLEY REGION. W/ AREA BEING SO
DRY...IT MAY TAKE WHILE FOR AIR TO BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANY TS ACTIVITY. LIGHT CAPE VALUES W/ MINOR INSTABILITY MIGHT FORM
ISOLATED TS TONIGHT...BUT MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS FOR -RW...
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NY.

AIRMASS BEHIND CURRENT SHORTWAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MORE MOIST W/
DEWPTS IN THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
MISSOURI...LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT DURING SATURDAY. THIS MORE
HUMID AIRMASS SHOULD HELP WITH TS PROB FOR TOMORROW AS ALREADY IN
GFE. TIMING FOR FROPA ON SUNDAY DIFFERS W/ MDLS. GFS HAS LATE SUN
TIME FRAME W/ FRONT IN CVLY BY 00Z MON...ETA HAS FRONT MEANDERING
THRU CVLY BETWEEN 12Z-18Z W/ AMPLE QPF ON BACKSIDE OF FRONT. WILL
GO WITH "MIX" AND ADJUST TIMING AND POPS OF CURRENT GFE TO REFLECT
MORE UPDATED MDL/S SITUATION.

.EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE ST
LAWRENCE VLY BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VLY FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS DIFFER ON FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH 00Z MRF MODEL MUCH
COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND HAVING COLD FRONT COME THROUGH THE
REGION EARLIER...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE COLD AND UNSTABLE
AIR ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...06Z AND 12Z GFS MODEL RUNS SHOW WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THAN 00Z MEX MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING AND
A DRIER FORECAST.  WILL STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.  06Z AND 12Z GFS MODEL
RUNS NOW SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST.  COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...SO WILL GO WITH MEX
MOS GUIDANCE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND REMAINING DRY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NEILSON
EXTENDED...HANLEY







FXUS61 KBTV 301929
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...NICE WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NY SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 70S AND WINDS OUT OF S/SW.
LATEST VIS SAT PIC SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH CLD STILL REMAINING OVER
PORTIONS OF CWA. DEWPT TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST MAINLY IN THE 40S...LEADING TO VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH RH'S
< 50% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...DELIVERING -RW TO
THAT AREA...WITH NO SIGNS OF LIGHTNING/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT HAS
DISSIPATED A BIT OVER PAST COUPLE HRS...BUT IS FORECASTED TO MV
NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT NEAR THE ST LAW VALLEY REGION. W/ AREA BEING SO
DRY...IT MAY TAKE WHILE FOR AIR TO BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANY TS ACTIVITY. LIGHT CAPE VALUES W/ MINOR INSTABILITY MIGHT FORM
ISOLATED TS TONIGHT...BUT MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS FOR -RW...
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NY.

AIRMASS BEHIND CURRENT SHORTWAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MORE MOIST W/
DEWPTS IN THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
MISSOURI...LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT DURING SATURDAY. THIS MORE
HUMID AIRMASS SHOULD HELP WITH TS PROB FOR TOMORROW AS ALREADY IN
GFE. TIMING FOR FROPA ON SUNDAY DIFFERS W/ MDLS. GFS HAS LATE SUN
TIME FRAME W/ FRONT IN CVLY BY 00Z MON...ETA HAS FRONT MEANDERING
THRU CVLY BETWEEN 12Z-18Z W/ AMPLE QPF ON BACKSIDE OF FRONT. WILL
GO WITH "MIX" AND ADJUST TIMING AND POPS OF CURRENT GFE TO REFLECT
MORE UPDATED MDL/S SITUATION.

.EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE ST
LAWRENCE VLY BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VLY FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS DIFFER ON FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH 00Z MRF MODEL MUCH
COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND HAVING COLD FRONT COME THROUGH THE
REGION EARLIER...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE COLD AND UNSTABLE
AIR ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...06Z AND 12Z GFS MODEL RUNS SHOW WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THAN 00Z MEX MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING AND
A DRIER FORECAST.  WILL STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.  06Z AND 12Z GFS MODEL
RUNS NOW SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST.  COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...SO WILL GO WITH MEX
MOS GUIDANCE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND REMAINING DRY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NEILSON
EXTENDED...HANLEY




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

987
ASUS51 KBTV 011011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-011100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    66  50  56 S17G24    29.99S
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    59  49  69 S10       30.07R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    55  50  83 CALM      30.02S
RUTLAND        CLEAR     55  48  76 SE10      30.06S
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     55  50  83 CALM      30.07S



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