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Expires:200405032100;;821961
FPUS51 KBTV 030804
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT MON MAY 3 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-032100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
401 AM EDT MON MAY 3 2004

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 030753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT MON MAY 3 2004

CF TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF THE FA THROUGHOUT TODAY. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESS TO RIDE UP ALONG THIS CF TO THE EAST OF THE FA TONITE.
SFC HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE...
AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON TUE/TUE NITE. ANOTHER CF TO MOVE ACRS THE
GREAT LKS REGION ON TUE NITE AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON WED. UPR TROF TO
MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST
TONITE AND INTO TUE.

00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO DROP FROM EARLY HIGHS IN
THE 40S-M50S DOWN INTO THE U30S-M40S BY LATER TODAY WITH SFC WINDS
BECOMING W-NW AT 5-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE BASICALLY 50-55F TODAY.
FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. CAPES TO
BE NIL ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC/GPS IPW DATA SHOWS VALUES OF 1-1.5"
DROPPING TO AOB 0.75" TODAY. RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY
WITH PCPN BECOMING SCT (AND LOCATED MOSTLY ACRS ERN VT).

H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU EARLY ON TUE...WITH WAA
LATE ON TUE THRU MUCH OF WED. H85 TEMPS/H925 WET-BULB TEMPS TO GO
NEGATIVE ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 06Z TONITE...THEN GO POSITIVE
AGAIN BY AROUND 12Z WED.

BEST H85 FGEN TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONITE.
LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATE ON TUE NITE AND
FOR MUCH OF WED. LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER THE LONGEST ACRS VT TODAY
THRU EARLY ON TUE...THEN MOVE IN AGAIN ACRS THE FA AGAIN BY LATER ON
TUE NITE AND WED. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THRU TUE AND AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO
BE HI ACRS THE FA ON WED. BEST MID-LVL MSTR TO BE LOCATED ACRS VT
TODAY AND TONITE...THEN ACRS THE ENTIRE FA ON TUE NITE AND FOR MUCH
OF WED. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.4-0.6" TONITE...AROUND
0.25" ON TUE...AND AROUND 0.5" ON TUE NITE/WED.

SAT PIX/BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING UP ACRS MOST
OF THE FA ATTM. LOOKS LIKE THE ST LAW VLY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
STAYING PCPN-FREE TODAY. WILL ATTEMPT TO MATCH APPROPRIATE POPS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BEFORE ZFP RELEASE. QPF
THRU 18Z TUE ACRS THE FA LOOKS TO BE AOB 0.8". ETA BUFR DATA AND FCST
THICKNESSES SHOW SOME SOLID PCPN POSSIBLE MOSTLY ACRS THE HIR TRRN BY
LATER TONITE AND INTO EARLY ON TUE BEFORE THE PCPN COMES TO AN END.
HAVE TAPERED POPS OFF FROM EAST TO WEST ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON
TUE. TEMPS IN THE MTNS MAY EVEN BE COLD ENUFF FOR A MIX WITH SHSN AS
THE NEXT SYS STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W-NW LATER ON TUE
NITE. CAPES TO BE AOB 300 J/KG ACRS THE FA ON WED. PREVIOUS FCST FOR
TIE NITE/WED LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OTRW. ZONES HAVE BEEN REGROUPED
SLIGHTLY TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR TRRN DIFFERENCES A LIL BETTER. T1MIN
TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 20S TONITE AND ON TUE NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE
IN THE M40S-M50S ON TUE.

PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. FINAL ZFP/GRIDS BY AROUND
4 AM.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

MURRAY





FXUS61 KBTV 030029
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
830 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

.UPDATE...
CDFNT E OF KMSS-KUCA LN AND MOVG VRY SLOWLY EWD WITH SSW FLOW ALF.
RGNL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS MSTLY DRY CONDS E OF FNT WITH BULK OF RAFL
ALG AND BHND FNT.  FROPA XPCTD AT BTV ARND 06Z AND CT VLY 09-11Z.
BASED ON THIS HAV DLAD ONSET OF SHWRS UNTIL AFT MIDNGT FOR VT ZNS.
HAV ALSO REMOVED TSTMS FOR VT ZNS AS INSTABY PARAMETERS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER FOR E ZNS.  KEPT CHC THUNDER W ZNS FOR JUST
THIS EVNG ALTHO THREAT MRGNL AS AMS STABILIZING.

TMPS HAV FALLEN SHARPLY BHND FROPA AND CRNTLY IN M/U40S FAR W ZNS
AND LK ONT RGN.  LWRD MINS BY SVRL DGRS ACRS W ZNS AND SLIGHTLY
ACRS E ZNS.

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TMPS MON AND LWRD POPS A BIT ACRS W ZNS
AS IT APRS SHWRS WL BE E OF THIS AREA BY 12Z MON.
&&

*** PREV DISCUSSION ***

.(CURRENT)...FRONT THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER WESTERN
NY AND PA BORDERS. SHOWS UP VERY WELL IN TEMP/WINDS FIELDS. LIGHT
AND SCATTERED RW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MV THRU CWA...W/ NO TS
ACTIVITY.
&&

.(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING AS FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND IT BEGIN MVG THRU REGION IS FOR ANY THUNDER THAT MAY
DEVELOP...AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY OF IT BEING "SEVERE".
LOOKING AT SEVERAL MDL DYNAMICS(FRONTOGENESIS...OMEGA...LI...THETA
E)...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL WANT TO KEEP BULK OF STRONG DYNAMICS FROM
ALB SOUTH...BUT FROM TO 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY AS TROUGH LIFTS THRU
CHANCE FOR TS IN NY. SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS W/ ANY DEVLOPMENT AND MAY WORD AS SUCH
AFTER COLLAB. W/ OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES. CLD COVER CURRENTLY OVER
REGION COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR ANY TYPE OF MAJOR
DEVELOPMENT.

BY 12Z/18Z ON MONDAY FRONT PUSHES THRU MUCH OF CWA AND STALLS JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST W/ STRONG RIDGE TO ITS EAST.
&&

.(MON NITE-TUES. MORN)...MDLS HAVE ANOTHER SHORT WV/WK LOW
DEVLOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MON NITE TRAVELING NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND BY TUES MORN. GFS WANTS TO BE THE FASTER OF THE MDLS AND
PUSH THE WHOLE THING OUT TO SEA AND NOT AFFECT CWA...MAINLY NE
KINGDOM...AT ALL. REST HAVE SOME PRECIP FILTERING INTO THAT AREA
THRU MORNING HRS TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OUT OF CWA. WITH COOLER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND EXITING TROUGH/FRONT AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE...
ANY PRECIP IN NE KINGDOM COULD SEE -SW MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ETA BUFKIT SHOWS QPF NEAR .30" FOR THIS TIME-FRAME...BUT I DON/T
THINK WE'LL SEE THAT AMT.
&&

.(TUES AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAKES QUICK RETURN
FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY...BUT SHIFTS TO THE S/SE..AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS OVER GREAT LKS REGION TUES NITE INTO WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
MDL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL -RW FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH CURRENT ZONES
HAVE AND WILL KEEP ATTM.
&&

.EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM
TO THE THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...COULD
PRODUCE SOME OVERRUNNING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT WILL OPT AT THIS POINT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONSENSUS AMONG
NEARBY OFFICES IS TO GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...HAVE SOME CONCERN WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. WILL REEXAMINE THIS POSSIBILITY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS
TOMORROW.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
EXTENDED...WGH







FXUS61 KBTV 021954
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

.(CURRENT)...FRONT THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER WESTERN
NY AND PA BORDERS. SHOWS UP VERY WELL IN TEMP/WINDS FIELDS. LIGHT
AND SCATTERED RW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MV THRU CWA...W/ NO TS
ACTIVITY.

.(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING AS FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND IT BEGIN MVG THRU REGION IS FOR ANY THUNDER THAT MAY
DEVELOP...AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY OF IT BEING "SEVERE".
LOOKING AT SEVERAL MDL DYNAMICS(FRONTOGENESIS...OMEGA...LI...THETA
E)...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL WANT TO KEEP BULK OF STRONG DYNAMICS FROM
ALB SOUTH...BUT FROM TO 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY AS TROUGH LIFTS THRU
CHANCE FOR TS IN NY. SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS W/ ANY DEVLOPMENT AND MAY WORD AS SUCH
AFTER COLLAB. W/ OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES. CLD COVER CURRENTLY OVER
REGION COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR ANY TYPE OF MAJOR
DEVELOPMENT.

BY 12Z/18Z ON MONDAY FRONT PUSHES THRU MUCH OF CWA AND STALLS JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST W/ STRONG RIDGE TO ITS EAST.

.(MON NITE-TUES. MORN)...MDLS HAVE ANOTHER SHORT WV/WK LOW
DEVLOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MON NITE TRAVELING NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND BY TUES MORN. GFS WANTS TO BE THE FASTER OF THE MDLS AND
PUSH THE WHOLE THING OUT TO SEA AND NOT AFFECT CWA...MAINLY NE
KINGDOM...AT ALL. REST HAVE SOME PRECIP FILTERING INTO THAT AREA
THRU MORNING HRS TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OUT OF CWA. WITH COOLER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND EXITING TROUGH/FRONT AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE...
ANY PRECIP IN NE KINGDOM COULD SEE -SW MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ETA BUFKIT SHOWS QPF NEAR .30" FOR THIS TIME-FRAME...BUT I DON/T
THINK WE'LL SEE THAT AMT.

.(TUES AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAKES QUICK RETURN
FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY...BUT SHIFTS TO THE S/SE..AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS OVER GREAT LKS REGION TUES NITE INTO WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
MDL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL -RW FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH CURRENT ZONES
HAVE AND WILL KEEP ATTM.

&&

.EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM
TO THE THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...COULD
PRODUCE SOME OVERRUNNING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT WILL OPT AT THIS POINT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONSENSUS AMONG
NEARBY OFFICES IS TO GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...HAVE SOME CONCERN WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. WILL REEXAMINE THIS POSSIBILITY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS
TOMORROW.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
EXTENDED...WGH




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

199
ASUS51 KBTV 031011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON MAY 03 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-031100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  51  49  92 N14       29.81R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    58  56  93 NW6       29.81R
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  55  54  96 N6        29.79R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     61  59  93 CALM      29.73S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    48  43  82 W9        29.91R



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