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Expires:200405102158;;980517
FPUS51 KBTV 100724
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-102158-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
323 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY UNTIL MID MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. BREEZY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 100831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL WX SCENARIO NEXT
48 HRS. WRMFNT WILL GRDLY LFT NORTHEAST THRU FA TONITE....FOLLOWED
BY CDFNT TUES AM. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BLDS INTO QUE TUES ALLOWING
FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH RESULTING IN BRF PERIOD OF DRIER AIR
LATER TUES INTO WED AM. UPPER RIDGE THEN BLDS IN ERN U.S. MID/LATE
WEEK. FRONT EVENTUALLY RETURNS NORTH AS WRMFNT. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH RISK SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

TODAY: SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER GRTLKS WILL THREATEN FA
NEXT 24 HRS. FIRST AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG INTO WRN NYS ATTM.
TSTRMS WITH THIS FIRST AREA OF PCPN EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH
OF FA...WITH MAINLY SHWRS ACRS NRN NYS...WHICH WILL CARRY INTO PARTS
OF VT LATER AM/MIDDAY. THIS PCPN IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV WHICH IS
TRACKING EAST ACRS LWR ONT EARLY THIS AM. THIS SHRTWV PROGGED TO
MOVE ACRS FA DURING 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME. ATMOS DESTABILIZES THIS PM
ACRS NRN NYS WHERE CAPES FCSTD TO INCR 1000-1500 J/KG AND LI'S LOWER
TO AROUND -3. UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS TO WHETHER THESE VALUES WILL BE
REACHED BASED ON AMT OF CLD COVER. IN ADDITION...WITH DEPARTURE OF
SHRTWV...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER UNTIL WRMFNT  LIFTS NORTH
INTO RGN TONITE. HAVE CONTD WITH CHC TSRA ACRS NRN NYS AND IN CHMPLN
VLY FOR THIS PM. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IF MAX INSTABILITY
REACHED...BUT BELIEVE BEST CHC FOR SVR WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF FA.
(SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR FA IN SLIGHT RISK...WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO REGARDING WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WOULD BE).

TONITE: WRMFNT LIFTS THRU FA 02Z-08Z. CDFNT THEN MOVES INTO FAR NRN
ZONES TWRDS 12Z. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC OR LIKELY POPS FOR
SHRA/TSRA...WITH HIGHEST POPS FAR NORTH. COOLEST TEMPS IN ERN VT
WHERE MARITIME AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISPLACE.

TUES: CDFNT DROPS SOUTH THRU FA BY 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
SHRA/TSRA THRU MORNING HRS (EXCEPT ST LWR VLY WHERE PCPN CHANCES
JUST ABOUT OVER BY 12Z). DRIER AIR THEN BLDS IN DURING PM HRS
RESULTING IN DEVELOPING SUNSHINE.

TUES NITE/WED: HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN QUE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLR
SKIES TUE NITE INTO EARLY WED. AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE
EAST...EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS WED PM...BUT EXPECT IT TO RMN DRY
THRU THE DAY.

EXTENDED: HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO FCST BEYOND WED. CHC
SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY THURS THRU SAT...MAINLY PM HRS EACH DAY. MUCH OF
TIME WILL BE DRY HOWEVER...AS WE WILL BE UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS






FXUS61 KBTV 100147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
947 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY ALLOW
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT.  THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING THERE SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO.  TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS IN GOING FORECAST APPEAR ON
TRACK AS WELL.  SO ONCE AGAIN..NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM...

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED)...
CLRG HAS PUSHED SWD ACRS ENTIRE FA AS SKIES ARE MOCLR WITH SOME
CU...MAINLY ACDS ADRNDCKS.  SFC HI TO THE N WL BUILD SWD ACRS ME
TNGT WITH WAA DVLPG ACRS W ZNS LT TNGT AS WFNT MVS INTO W NY.
CLDS NOT FAR FM FA AND WL RETURN LT TNGT ACRS W ZNS BUT SHD RMN
MOCLR/PTCLDY E ZNS WHERE COOLEST TMPS WL BE.  MENTIONED SCHC SHWRS
W ZNS LT TNGT AS VORT MAX APCHS FM LKS.

ETA HAS TRENDED TWD YDA/S GFS...ALTHO WEAKER WITH VORT MAX MOVG ACRS
FA DURG MON.  WL GO WITH CHC POPS ALL ZNS MON...HOLDING BACK TIMG
TIL AFTN FOR E ZNS.  INSTABY MAINLY ACRS NNY WITH CAPES INCRG TO
1000-1500 AND LI/S DOWN TO -4 SO CONFINED TSTMS TO THIS RGN WITH
JUST SHWRS IN VT.  H8 WINDS INCRS TO ARND 40 KTS WITH LGTR WINDS
FTHR UP SO SHEAR CONFINED TO LLVLS SUPPRTING MULTICELLS.  IF FCST
CAPES CAN BE REALIZED...AND THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLD CVR...SVR
IS A PSBLTY WITH DMGG WINDS MAIN THREAT.

VORT MAX MAY SLOW MVNT OF WFNT ACRS RGN AND BASED ON SFC LI FIELD
MAY NOT RCH CHMPLN VLY TIL LT DAY OR EVNG. H8 TMPS RISE TO +13 IN WM
SECTOR WHICH WUD SUPPORT L80S ST LAW VLY BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
AMT OF SUN PLAYED TMPS MORE CONSERVATIVE.  WRMST TMPS IN MID 70S
XPCTD ACRS ST LAW VLY...COOLING TO MID 60S E VT WHERE LOW CLDS MAY
PREVAIL ALL DAY DUE TO MARITIME INFLUENCE.

WFMT PUSHES EWD ACRS FA MON NGT.  WM SECTOR WL BE SHORT LIVED AS
UPSTREAM CDFNT REACHES ST LAW VLY/CNDN BDR BY 12Z TUE.  INCREASED
POPS TO LKLY FOR FAR N ZNS LT MON NGT AHD OF FNT...DECRG TO CHC S
VT.

FNT MVS SWD ACRS FA RCHG S ZNS BY 18Z TUE.  MENTIONED CHC MRNG
RW/TRW...THEN BCMG PTSUNNY AS ATMOS QUICKLY STABILIZES WITH GOOD
DRYING MOVG IN.  GFS MORE AGRESSV THAN ETA WITH H8 COOLING BHND FNT
AND UKMET IS BTWN ETA/GFS.  WENT WITH A COMPROMISE ON TMPS WITH
MAXES RANGING FM NR 70 W ZNS TO NR 80 LWR CT VLY.

FNT STALLS S OF FA TUE NGT AS HI BLDS TO THE N...THEN FNT RETURNS
NWD DURG WED.  ETA IS QUICKEST IN BRINGING WFNT THRU FA ON WEDWITH
ATMOS DESTABILIZING BUT GFS HOLDS IT BACK AND KEEPS INSTABY TO THE
SW.  UKMET IS CLOSER TO GFS SOLN SO LEANED TWD GFS KEEPING WED DRY
AND COOLER THAN ETA WUD SUGGEST.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY)...
LATEST MDL RUNS FOR WED EVENING SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE  OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. RIDGE PORTION OVER NEW ENGLAND DOES
APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST WED NITE/EARLY THURS MORN...ALLOWING MOISTURE
TO TRY TO WORK INTO REGION FROM THE SW. DON/T THINK IT WILL MAKE
STRONG INITIAL PUSH NORTHEAST AND WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT RW ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO SW BORDER ZONES. WILL ADJUST GFE NUMBERS TO REFLECT.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST AS DAY
PROGRESSES ON THURS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO WORK NORTH ALONG WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. W/ STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST SW FLOW...CAN
NOT RULE OUT BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS W/ CHANCE OF
TS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/ RIDGE SITTING OFF THE EAST COAST...THE SFC LOW W/ ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL TREK MORE NORTH BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OVER CWA FOR THE WEEKEND.

COASTAL HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FRONT TO APPROACH
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR TRW
OVER CWA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS SLOW FROPA OCCURS. FRONT MVS
ACROSS REGION AND WILL TAPER PRECIP SLOWL FROM WEST TO EAST W/ SC VT
SEEING LAST OF PRECIP DURING DAY SUNDAY AS FRONT MEANDERS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT ON
SUNDAY...W/ POSSIBLE LOW CENTRAL PLAINS MVG NE THRU GREAT LKS REGION
AND JUST NORTH OF CWA LATE SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT BEING SO FAR OUT AND WILL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JN






FXUS61 KBTV 091940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED)...
CLRG HAS PUSHED SWD ACRS ENTIRE FA AS SKIES ARE MOCLR WITH SOME
CU...MAINLY ACDS ADRNDCKS.  SFC HI TO THE N WL BUILD SWD ACRS ME
TNGT WITH WAA DVLPG ACRS W ZNS LT TNGT AS WFNT MVS INTO W NY.
CLDS NOT FAR FM FA AND WL RETURN LT TNGT ACRS W ZNS BUT SHD RMN
MOCLR/PTCLDY E ZNS WHERE COOLEST TMPS WL BE.  MENTIONED SCHC SHWRS
W ZNS LT TNGT AS VORT MAX APCHS FM LKS.

ETA HAS TRENDED TWD YDA/S GFS...ALTHO WEAKER WITH VORT MAX MOVG ACRS
FA DURG MON.  WL GO WITH CHC POPS ALL ZNS MON...HOLDING BACK TIMG
TIL AFTN FOR E ZNS.  INSTABY MAINLY ACRS NNY WITH CAPES INCRG TO
1000-1500 AND LI/S DOWN TO -4 SO CONFINED TSTMS TO THIS RGN WITH
JUST SHWRS IN VT.  H8 WINDS INCRS TO ARND 40 KTS WITH LGTR WINDS
FTHR UP SO SHEAR CONFINED TO LLVLS SUPPRTING MULTICELLS.  IF FCST
CAPES CAN BE REALIZED...AND THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLD CVR...SVR
IS A PSBLTY WITH DMGG WINDS MAIN THREAT.

VORT MAX MAY SLOW MVNT OF WFNT ACRS RGN AND BASED ON SFC LI FIELD
MAY NOT RCH CHMPLN VLY TIL LT DAY OR EVNG. H8 TMPS RISE TO +13 IN WM
SECTOR WHICH WUD SUPPORT L80S ST LAW VLY BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
AMT OF SUN PLAYED TMPS MORE CONSERVATIVE.  WRMST TMPS IN MID 70S
XPCTD ACRS ST LAW VLY...COOLING TO MID 60S E VT WHERE LOW CLDS MAY
PREVAIL ALL DAY DUE TO MARITIME INFLUENCE.

WFMT PUSHES EWD ACRS FA MON NGT.  WM SECTOR WL BE SHORT LIVED AS
UPSTREAM CDFNT REACHES ST LAW VLY/CNDN BDR BY 12Z TUE.  INCREASED
POPS TO LKLY FOR FAR N ZNS LT MON NGT AHD OF FNT...DECRG TO CHC S
VT.

FNT MVS SWD ACRS FA RCHG S ZNS BY 18Z TUE.  MENTIONED CHC MRNG
RW/TRW...THEN BCMG PTSUNNY AS ATMOS QUICKLY STABILIZES WITH GOOD
DRYING MOVG IN.  GFS MORE AGRESSV THAN ETA WITH H8 COOLING BHND FNT
AND UKMET IS BTWN ETA/GFS.  WENT WITH A COMPROMISE ON TMPS WITH
MAXES RANGING FM NR 70 W ZNS TO NR 80 LWR CT VLY.

FNT STALLS S OF FA TUE NGT AS HI BLDS TO THE N...THEN FNT RETURNS
NWD DURG WED.  ETA IS QUICKEST IN BRINGING WFNT THRU FA ON WEDWITH
ATMOS DESTABILIZING BUT GFS HOLDS IT BACK AND KEEPS INSTABY TO THE
SW.  UKMET IS CLOSER TO GFS SOLN SO LEANED TWD GFS KEEPING WED DRY
AND COOLER THAN ETA WUD SUGGEST.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY)...
LATEST MDL RUNS FOR WED EVENING SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE  OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. RIDGE PORTION OVER NEW ENGLAND DOES
APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST WED NITE/EARLY THURS MORN...ALLOWING MOISTURE
TO TRY TO WORK INTO REGION FROM THE SW. DON/T THINK IT WILL MAKE
STRONG INITIAL PUSH NORTHEAST AND WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT RW ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO SW BORDER ZONES. WILL ADJUST GFE NUMBERS TO REFLECT.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST AS DAY
PROGRESSES ON THURS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO WORK NORTH ALONG WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. W/ STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST SW FLOW...CAN
NOT RULE OUT BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS W/ CHANCE OF
TS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/ RIDGE SITTING OFF THE EAST COAST...THE SFC LOW W/ ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL TREK MORE NORTH BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OVER CWA FOR THE WEEKEND.

COASTAL HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FRONT TO APPROACH
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR TRW
OVER CWA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS SLOW FROPA OCCURS. FRONT MVS
ACROSS REGION AND WILL TAPER PRECIP SLOWL FROM WEST TO EAST W/ SC VT
SEEING LAST OF PRECIP DURING DAY SUNDAY AS FRONT MEANDERS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT ON
SUNDAY...W/ POSSIBLE LOW CENTRAL PLAINS MVG NE THRU GREAT LKS REGION
AND JUST NORTH OF CWA LATE SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT BEING SO FAR OUT AND WILL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JN








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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