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Expires:200405112204;;005994
FPUS51 KBTV 110744
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-112204-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
343 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 70 TO 75. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 10
TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 110908 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2004

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS...SO
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST WITH THIS PACKAGE.

LATEST RADAR SHOWING SHWRS WITH A LITTLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVG ACRS
NRN NY ATTM...WITH JUST WDLY SCT SHWRS IN VT. WRMFNT STILL HUNG UP
OVR ERN VT WHERE TEMPS ONLY IN UPPER 40S...AS OPPOSED TO REST OF CWA
WHERE TEMPS IN UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. EXPECT WRMFNT TO FINALLY
CLEAR ERN ZONES EARLY TDY. SHWRS ACRS NRN NY IN ADVANCE OF
PREFRNTAL TROF WHICH WILL BE MOVG ACRS FA THRU MID AM. MOST OF PCPN
TIED TO THIS FEATURE...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SHWR ACTIVITY
WITH ACTUAL CDNT WHICH WILL DROP THRU FA LATER AM/PM. NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM BEHIND FROPA...SO LOOKING INCREASING SUNSHINE
THIS PM. MAV TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TDY LOOKS A BIT LOW...ESPECIALLY
SINCE CAA NOT REALLY ARRIVING TILL THIS PM. HAVE GONE ABOVE BY A FEW
DEGREEES.

TONITE: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACRS SRN QUE PROVDING FA WITH MAINLY
CLR SKIES...ALTHOUGH NO STRONG SOUTH PUSH TO FRONT MAY RESULT IN
SOME LINGERING CLDNSS SRN ZONES. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY 40 TO
45...WITH 30S COMMON IN ADRNDKS AND NE VT.

WED: UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH
RETREATS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. ETA APPEARS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING
WRMFNT AND ASSOCD SHWRS NORTH INTO OUR FA. HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER AND DRIER GFS SOLUTION...MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FCST.

THURS: UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...AND WRMFNT MOVES INTO
RGN. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHC SHWR/TSRA...MAINLY DURING PM HRS. GFS
TEMPS COOLER THIS RUN THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...ALTHO NOT
MUCH DIFERENCE IN 850 TEMPS. AMT OF CLD COVER AND MARITIME INFLUENCE
ERN ZONES ARE POSSIBLE REASONS. HAVE GONE SLIGHLTY ABOVE GUIDANCE
TEMPS.

EXTENDED: NO CHANGES TO GOING FCST. CHANCE OF SHWRS/THNDSTRMS
INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY WITH APRCH OF NEXT CDFNT. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS












FXUS61 KBTV 110114 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
915 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
WRM FNTL BNDRY MVG ACRS VT ATTM WITH TSRA DVLPG IN WRM SECTOR OFF
LAKE ONTARIO ERLR BEGINNING TO MV INTO LWR CHMPL VLY. ACTVTY APPEARS
RELATIVELY BENIGN AND MVG INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS...BUT WL STL
WATCH.

OTHERWISE...PRVS FCST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TNGT-THU)...
WFNT HAS MADE IT INTO SRN ST LAW VLY AND ADRNDCKS TAFTN AND IT APRS
REST OF FA WL EVENTUALLY GET INTO WM SECTOR TNGT BFR CDFNT DROPS S
ACRS ST LAW VLY/CNDN BDR BY 12Z TUE.  RDR IS PRETTY QUIET ATTM BUT
AMS DESTABILIZING ACRS CNTRL/W NY SO CANT RULE OUT SOMETHING DVLPG
THRU TAFTN AND MOVG ACRS FA THIS EVNG...WITH ANOTHER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LT TNGT...ESP N ZNS ASSCD WITH CDFNT.  INSTABY IS MRGNL
SO SVR THREAT IS LOW.  TMPS WL BE STEADY TNGT...MSTLY IN 50S.

CDFROPA XPCTD ACRS ST LAW VLY AND ADJACENT CNDN BDR ZNS BY 12Z TUE
RCHG S ZNS ARND MIDDAY.  MDL QPF IS CLS TO NIL AND POPS VRY LOW BUT
WL MENTION SCHC RW/TRW FOR JUST ERN/S VT WITH LTR TIMG OF FROPA.
ATMOS STABILIZES AND DRIES OUT QUICKLY BHND FNT SO XPCT INCRG
SUNSHINE DURG AFTN.  GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO AGRESSV WITH DRIVING COOLER
H8 TMPS SWD SO WENT WITH ETA/GFS COMPROMISE WHICH SUGGESTS TMPS
RNGG FM NR 70 W ZNS TO NR 80 LWR CT VLY.

SFC HI BLDS N/E OF FA TUE NGT AS FNT PUSHES FTHR S.  XPCT MOCLR
SKIES AND LGT WINDS WHICH WL ALLOW FOR A COOL NGT WITH MINS 35-45
WITH SOME COOLER RDGS PSBL ACRS ADRNDCKS/NE KINGDM.

SE US UPR RDG BLDS NWD WED-THU AS OLD FNT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOV BACK
NE AS A WFNT.  ETA LOOKS TOO QUICK IN MOVG WFNT THRU FA DURG WED
WITH STG SFC HI TO THE NE SO LEANED TWD GFS SOLN WHICH KEEPS IT DRY
AND COOLER THAN ETA DURG WED.  THEN XPCT CLDS TO INCRS WED NGT AS
WFNT APCHS WITH PSBLY A FEW SHWRS AFFCTG SW PORTIONS OF FA.  GFS
SHOWS FA GETTING INTO WM SECTOR DURG THU WITH ATMOS DESTABILIZING
SO MNTND CHC RW/TRW.  H8 TMPS WRMG TO 12-14 DURG THU WHICH SUPPORTS
L80S WITH FULL SUN.  HWR DO XPCT SOME CLDS ARND SO SCALED BACK TMPS
A BIT TO 75-80 WITH COOLEST TMPS NE VT.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY)...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...W/ HIGH PRESSURE OFF COAST SW FLOW
INTO CWA CONTINUES. W/ DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS REGION BOTH THURS AND
FRI...THINKING THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF TRW MORE SO ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF CD FRNT. INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE STRONG HIGH OVER THE
EAST KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS...BUT W/ SW GULF FLOW OVER REGION FOR 2
DAYS PRECEDING FROPA THIS COMING WEEKEND...WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR
PRECIP W/ POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HRS THURS/FRI. WILL
KEEP FRI HAS MORE OF CHANCE...AND PUT THURS INTO MORE OF SCATTERED
REGIME FOR EARLY EVENING HRS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOW ONSET OF FROPA INTO THE CWA. W/ SFC COMPONENT BUILDING A BIT
FURTHER INLAND...CD FRNT WILL NOW BEGIN TREK THRU CWA FROM NW TO SE
SAT MORN AND MDLS HAVE FRONT OVER CWA SAT EVENING. WILL UP POPS A
BIT FOR THIS TIME-FRAME...BUT KEEP CHANCE FOR TRW. WILL ADJUST
POPS/PRECIP INTO SUN MORN TO TAPER PRECIP OFF AS IT MVS FURTHER SE.

SUN AFTERNOON-MONDAY...FRONT CLEARS CWA BY MIDDAY TO OUR SOUTH
ALLOWING SFC RIDGE TO BUILD OVER REGION FROM THE NORTH/GREAT LKS
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY MV OFF COAST LATE MONDAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JN












FXUS61 KBTV 101941
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-THU)...
WFNT HAS MADE IT INTO SRN ST LAW VLY AND ADRNDCKS TAFTN AND IT APRS
REST OF FA WL EVENTUALLY GET INTO WM SECTOR TNGT BFR CDFNT DROPS S
ACRS ST LAW VLY/CNDN BDR BY 12Z TUE.  RDR IS PRETTY QUIET ATTM BUT
AMS DESTABILIZING ACRS CNTRL/W NY SO CANT RULE OUT SOMETHING DVLPG
THRU TAFTN AND MOVG ACRS FA THIS EVNG...WITH ANOTHER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LT TNGT...ESP N ZNS ASSCD WITH CDFNT.  INSTABY IS MRGNL
SO SVR THREAT IS LOW.  TMPS WL BE STEADY TNGT...MSTLY IN 50S.

CDFROPA XPCTD ACRS ST LAW VLY AND ADJACENT CNDN BDR ZNS BY 12Z TUE
RCHG S ZNS ARND MIDDAY.  MDL QPF IS CLS TO NIL AND POPS VRY LOW BUT
WL MENTION SCHC RW/TRW FOR JUST ERN/S VT WITH LTR TIMG OF FROPA.
ATMOS STABILIZES AND DRIES OUT QUICKLY BHND FNT SO XPCT INCRG
SUNSHINE DURG AFTN.  GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO AGRESSV WITH DRIVING COOLER
H8 TMPS SWD SO WENT WITH ETA/GFS COMPROMISE WHICH SUGGESTS TMPS
RNGG FM NR 70 W ZNS TO NR 80 LWR CT VLY.

SFC HI BLDS N/E OF FA TUE NGT AS FNT PUSHES FTHR S.  XPCT MOCLR
SKIES AND LGT WINDS WHICH WL ALLOW FOR A COOL NGT WITH MINS 35-45
WITH SOME COOLER RDGS PSBL ACRS ADRNDCKS/NE KINGDM.

SE US UPR RDG BLDS NWD WED-THU AS OLD FNT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOV BACK
NE AS A WFNT.  ETA LOOKS TOO QUICK IN MOVG WFNT THRU FA DURG WED
WITH STG SFC HI TO THE NE SO LEANED TWD GFS SOLN WHICH KEEPS IT DRY
AND COOLER THAN ETA DURG WED.  THEN XPCT CLDS TO INCRS WED NGT AS
WFNT APCHS WITH PSBLY A FEW SHWRS AFFCTG SW PORTIONS OF FA.  GFS
SHOWS FA GETTING INTO WM SECTOR DURG THU WITH ATMOS DESTABILIZING
SO MNTND CHC RW/TRW.  H8 TMPS WRMG TO 12-14 DURG THU WHICH SUPPORTS
L80S WITH FULL SUN.  HWR DO XPCT SOME CLDS ARND SO SCALED BACK TMPS
A BIT TO 75-80 WITH COOLEST TMPS NE VT.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY)...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...W/ HIGH PRESSURE OFF COAST SW FLOW
INTO CWA CONTINUES. W/ DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS REGION BOTH THURS AND
FRI...THINKING THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF TRW MORE SO ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF CD FRNT. INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE STRONG HIGH OVER THE
EAST KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS...BUT W/ SW GULF FLOW OVER REGION FOR 2
DAYS PRECEDING FROPA THIS COMING WEEKEND...WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR
PRECIP W/ POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HRS THURS/FRI. WILL
KEEP FRI HAS MORE OF CHANCE...AND PUT THURS INTO MORE OF SCATTERED
REGIME FOR EARLY EVENING HRS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOW ONSET OF FROPA INTO THE CWA. W/ SFC COMPONENT BUILDING A BIT
FURTHER INLAND...CD FRNT WILL NOW BEGIN TREK THRU CWA FROM NW TO SE
SAT MORN AND MDLS HAVE FRONT OVER CWA SAT EVENING. WILL UP POPS A
BIT FOR THIS TIME-FRAME...BUT KEEP CHANCE FOR TRW. WILL ADJUST
POPS/PRECIP INTO SUN MORN TO TAPER PRECIP OFF AS IT MVS FURTHER SE.

SUN AFTERNOON-MONDAY...FRONT CLEARS CWA BY MIDDAY TO OUR SOUTH
ALLOWING SFC RIDGE TO BUILD OVER REGION FROM THE NORTH/GREAT LKS
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY MV OFF COAST LATE MONDAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JN









   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

337
ASUS51 KBTV 111012
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-111100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  62  59  90 S7        29.99R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    50  49  96 S3        30.03R FOG
RUTLAND        MOCLDY    57  54  88 SE3       30.02R
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       52  52 100 CALM      30.02R VSB 1/4
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    57  55  93 CALM      30.05R



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