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Expires:200405182144;;179679
FPUS51 KBTV 180738
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-182144-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
338 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. BREEZY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 180515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...
CHANGES IN THE MIX FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY W/ THE NICE WX OVER REGION
TDY...WILL BE REPLACED BY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENT ACTIVITY AROUND THE NORTHEAST FROM LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE PICS SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ TROUGH OUT AHEAD
OF FRONT IN THE OHIO/PA REGION...AND AN AREA OF TRW NORTH OF MASSENA
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED W/ NORTHERN EXTENT OF CD FRNT. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS DIMINISHED SOME OVER PAST COUPLE HRS. ANOTHER LARGER AREA OF
STORMS OUT OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LKS REGION...LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
TOGETHER AS IT MVS EAST ALONG CD FRNT.

MUCH OF CWA STILL LOW ON RH SCALE...BUT WITH FRONT APPROACHING ALONG
W/ SW WINDS...LOWER LAYERS SHOULD SEE INCR IN RH VALUES AS MORNING
PROGRESSES. LATEST 00Z MDL RUNS SHOW PRECIP BEGINNING IN ST LAW
VALLEY BY MID-MORNING AND AROUND MIDDAY HERE IN CVLY AND ALL AREA
BY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MDL PARAMETERS STILL SHOW STRONG THETA-E RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF
FRONT BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. JET MAXES ASSOCIATED W/ FROPA KEEP THEM
FROM 850/500/200MB OVER OR JUST NORTH OF CWA UNTIL FRONT PUSHES
THRU. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS BEING PICKED UP BY MDLS IN 2 AREAS...ONE
IS WELL SOUTH OF CWA OVER MID-ATLAN REGION...THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. PW/S STILL OVER INCH FOR MUCH OF REGION...
WHICH W/ ORIENTATION OF FRONT..."TRAINING" OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR AS THEY MV THRU. SO WILL ADJUST POPS FOR FROPA DURING DAY.
CURRENT ZONES ALREADY MENTION "HEAVY RAIN" AND WILL CONTINUE W/
THIS ALONG W/ MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

FRONT SOUTH OF CWA BY 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME W/ SOME LINGERING RW. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER GREAT LKS REGION MVS EAST THRU THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SETTING UP SCENARIO AS PAST COUPLE DAYS...SW FLOW
RETURNING TO REGION AFTER COOLER DAY WED. ANOTHER MVS ACROSS REGION
LATE THURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF TRW TO REGION.
&&

.EXTENDED...
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MVS THRU REGION BY FRI MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN OVER REGION FOR MUCH
OF WEEKEND. A LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MV INTO MIDWEST REGION LATE
WEEKEND W/ FRONT MVG THRU CWA W/ POSSIBLE RW. CURRENT EXTENDED HAS
THIS MENTIONED AND WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

JN






FXUS61 KBTV 180147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
946 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

.UPDATE...
RADAR LOOP SHOWING WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO JUST EAST
OF GEORGIAN BAY ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA...
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER DYNAMICS TO KEEP IT GOING
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ALSO...DEW POINTS STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...SO LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL
QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.
WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN THE
FORM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  COLD FRONT STILL OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ATTM...SO EXPECTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RETURN FLOW INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE 70S. CU FIELD
TO SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA ON VIS SATELLITE INDICATES HIGHER RH
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS.  LOW LEVEL RH TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT
TONIGHT...WITH 850 THETA-E RIDGE NOSING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO 1 1/2 INCHES OR MORE
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

ALL THIS MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MID MORNING TUESDAY...TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND EXIT SOUTHERN VERMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT AVN SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND BREAKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AS IT IS...WE STILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  WITH HIGH PW'S AND BUFKIT HEAVY
PRECIP TOOLS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ADDED THAT IN THE
GRIDS AND WORDED FORECAST. FRONT MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT
WE SHOULDN'T HAVE FLOOD PROBLEMS...BUT STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

SPC HAS THE REGION UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR TUESDAY. CAPES ARE
LOW...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
15-20KTS INCREASING TO WEST AT ALMOST 50KTS NEAR 850 MB. POTENTIAL
FOR LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. DROPPED MENTION OF SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY...WORDING ONLY AS THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...
H/5 RDG WITH NW FLO ALFT FRI-SAT BCMS WLY SUN AND SW MON AS RDG MOVS
E OF NEW ENG. WK VORTS WL MOV ACRS NRN FRINGES OF AREA OVR RDG. SHUD
RMN PTLY SUNNY THRU SAT...THEN CHC SHWRS SUN AND MON.

IN RESPONSE TO UPR LVL FLO...SFC HI MOVS ACRS NEW ENG FRI-SAT. THEN
DVLPG LO PRES IN THE MIDWEST MOVS TO THE GRTLKS RGN SUN-MON WITH
FNTL BNDRY FM SRN CANADA TO MO VLY. KEPT FRI-SAT DRY WITH SFC HI
PRES RDG ACRS NRN PTN OF AREA. THEN HV INTRODUCED CHC SHWRS LATE
SUNDAY MRNG CONTG INTO ERLY MONDAY AFTN.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 172003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RETURN FLOW INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE 70S. CU FIELD
TO SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA ON VIS SATELLITE INDICATES HIGHER RH
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS.  LOW LEVEL RH TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT
TONIGHT...WITH 850 THETA-E RIDGE NOSING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO 1 1/2 INCHES OR MORE
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

ALL THIS MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MID MORNING TUESDAY...TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND EXIT SOUTHERN VERMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT AVN SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND BREAKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AS IT IS...WE STILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  WITH HIGH PW'S AND BUFKIT HEAVY
PRECIP TOOLS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ADDED THAT IN THE
GRIDS AND WORDED FORECAST. FRONT MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT
WE SHOULDN'T HAVE FLOOD PROBLEMS...BUT STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

SPC HAS THE REGION UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR TUESDAY. CAPES ARE
LOW...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
15-20KTS INCREASING TO WEST AT ALMOST 50KTS NEAR 850 MB. POTENTIAL
FOR LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. DROPPED MENTION OF SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY...WORDING ONLY AS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
H/5 RDG WITH NW FLO ALFT FRI-SAT BCMS WLY SUN AND SW MON AS RDG MOVS
E OF NEW ENG. WK VORTS WL MOV ACRS NRN FRINGES OF AREA OVR RDG. SHUD
RMN PTLY SUNNY THRU SAT...THEN CHC SHWRS SUN AND MON.

IN RESPONSE TO UPR LVL FLO...SFC HI MOVS ACRS NEW ENG FRI-SAT. THEN
DVLPG LO PRES IN THE MIDWEST MOVS TO THE GRTLKS RGN SUN-MON WITH
FNTL BNDRY FM SRN CANADA TO MO VLY. KEPT FRI-SAT DRY WITH SFC HI
PRES RDG ACRS NRN PTN OF AREA. THEN HV INTRODUCED CHC SHWRS LATE
SUNDAY MRNG CONTG INTO ERLY MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

HANSON/SFH







FXUS61 KBTV 172002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RETURN FLOW INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE 70S. CU FIELD
TO SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA ON VIS SATELLITE INDICATES HIGHER RH
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS.  LOW LEVEL RH TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT
TONIGHT...WITH 850 THETA-E RIDGE NOSING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO 1 1/2 INCHES OR MORE
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

ALL THIS MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MID MORNING TUESDAY...TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND EXIT SOUTHERN VERMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT AVN SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND BREAKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AS IT IS...WE STILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  WITH HIGH PW'S AND BUFKIT HEAVY
PRECIP TOOLS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ADDED THAT IN THE
GRIDS AND WORDED FORECAST. FRONT MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT
WE SHOULDN'T HAVE FLOOD PROBLEMS...BUT STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

SPC HAS THE REGION UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR TUESDAY. CAPES ARE
LOW...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
15-20KTS INCREASING TO WEST AT ALMOST 50KTS NEAR 850 MB. POTENTIAL
FOR LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. DROPPED MENTION OF SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY...WORDING ONLY AS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
H/5 RDG WITH NW FLO ALFT FRI-SAT BCMS WLY SUN AND SW MON AS RDG MOVS
E OF NEW ENG. WK VORTS WL MOV ACRS NRN FRINGES OF AREA OVR RDG. SHUD
RMN PTLY SUNNY THRU SAT...THEN CHC SHWRS SUN AND MON.

IN RESPONSE TO UPR LVL FLO...SFC HI MOVS ACRS NEW ENG FRI-SAT. THEN
DVLPG LO PRES IN THE MIDWEST MOVS TO THE GRTLKS RGN SUN-MON WITH
FNTL BNDRY FM SRN CANADA TO MO VLY. KEPT FRI-SAT DRY WITH SFC HI
PRES RDG ACRS NRN PTN OF AREA. THEN HV INTRODUCED CHC SHWRS LATE
SUNDAY MRNG CONTG INTO ERLY MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

HANSON/SFH






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

754
ASUS51 KBTV 181012
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-181100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    65  59  81 S20G28    30.06S
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    64  57  78 SW10      30.10S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     62  57  83 VRB5      30.13R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  57  77 CALM      30.15R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    58  57  97 VRB6      30.19S
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    61  58  90 CALM      30.17S



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