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Expires:200405152152;;106924
FPUS51 KBTV 150739
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-152152-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
338 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG FROM LATE EVENING ON. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 150600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WARM/HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS GULF MOISTURE BEHIND WARM FRONT
MVS OVER THE NORTHEAST. REGION DEFINITELY IN "WARM" SECTOR...A CD
FRONT REMAINS OVER GREAT LKS REGION THIS EVENING. SOME SCAT TRW
STILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NY AND JUST WEST OF ST LAW VALLEY.
RADAR/LIGHTNING LOOPS SHOWS THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION WEAKENING W/
TIME.

TIMING OF FROPA TDY DIFFERS A LITTLE W/ CURRENT MDL RUNS. ALL SEEM TO
WANT TO PUSH FRONT DOWN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE 00Z
TIMEFRAME...W/ THE GFS AND MRF KEEPING SCATTERED PRECIP LINGERING
BIT LONGER OVER CWA THAN ETA AND ECMWF. W/ STRONG RIDGES OH HIGH
PRESSURE IN FRONT OF AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEST/EAST MVMENT WILL
BE HAMPERED...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY "TRAIN"
OVER SOME AREAS IN CWA. BREAKS IN CLDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING AND THUS FURTHER ATMOS DESTABILIZATION.

WILL PROBABLY LEAN TOWARDS MIX OF ETA/GFS FOR FROPA POPS.

HIGHS FOR TDY LOOK TO BE EARLY HIGHS. STRONG RIDGE BEHIND FRONT
WILL BRING IN COOLER CANADIAN AIR AS CD FRNT MVS THRU CWA. WILL LOOK
TO ADJUST THIS IN FORECAST.

SFC RIDGE MVS DOWN ACROSS REGION TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE...
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS...LEANING TOWARDS MENTION OF FOG FOR
OVERNITE/EARLY MORNING HRS. HIGH MVS OFF COAST BY MON NITE EARLY
TUES MORN...OPENING REGION AGAIN TO WARM SW GULF FLOW. THIS
COINCIDES W/ SFC LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO
ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING CD FRONT ACROSS REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR
TRW ON TUES AS MENTIONED IN CURRENT ZONES.

.EXTENDED...
WED THRU FRI...SFC RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF RW LOOKS GOOD FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MVS OVER REGION...AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY. WILL NOT
CHANGE THIS PART OF FORECAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$

JN






FXUS61 KBTV 150126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2004

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SHTRA/TSRA ERLY THIS AFTN CREATED SVRL OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT GOT THE
FIREWORKS GOING THRU ERLY EVENING. HWVR...PAST HR/TWO LOSS OF LLVL
INSTABILITY HAS PUT THE FIRE OUT AND JUST SOME -SHRA RPDLY DECAYING.

FOR THE MOST PART...PTLY CLDY OVRNGT WITH ENUF BREEZE TO PREVENT
AREAS OF FOG BUT SOME LCLZD PTCHY FOG IN WND PROTECTED VLYS PSBL.

NXT BATCH OF SHRA MAY APPROACH ST LWRNC VLY BY DAWN.

ZONES AVBL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...RADAR INDCS CNVTN MOVG NE ACRS WRN PTNS OF PA
AND NY IN RESPONSE THAT VORT LOBE THAT HAS BEEN MOVG NE FM ERN LK
ERIE. AS NOTED ERLIER SFC BNDRY FM ERN PA INTO NE NY THEN W ACRS SRN
QUE ATTM. DEW PTS ARE IN THE MID 60S ACRS MUCH OF NY AND PA WHICH IS
SUPPORTING CNVTN.

MAX AXIS OF LO LVL MSTR EXTDS FM CNTRL PA-CNTRL NY TO LK ONT THEN NE
IN TO NE NY. THIS AXIS WL BE MONITORD FOR TSTM DVLPMT AS IT
MOVS FM NE NY INTO WRN VT. FFW WAS ISSUED FOR NE NY AND TSTMS IN NE
NY AND NW VT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
ERLY TNGT.

OTRW...MODELS TAKE H/5 RDG NY STATE MOVS E ACRS NEW ENG TNGT AND OFF
THE NEW ENG CST SAT MRNG. WK VORT MOVS NE ACRS WRN NY THIS AFTN AND
OVR THE RDGE IN SRN CANADA TNGT. AFTR THAT A BROAD H/5 TROF BCMS
ESTABLISHED ACRS GRTLKS...WITH MAIN VORT SHERAING OFF SAT AND MOVG
ALG OR JUST N OF OUR AREA INTO CANADA CONTG SUNDAY. NXT VORT APRCHS
AREA LATE MON/MON NITE.

CDFNT MOVS INTO NRN NY SAT MRNG WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MOVG INTO VT
DURG THE MRNG AND CONTG AFTN. WL CONT CHC SHWR SAT EVE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR...OTRW BCMG PTLY CLDY...AND DRIER AS NEW AIRMASS
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY....AS HI PRES BLDS ACRS SRN CANADA SUNDAY.

DRY WX SHUD CONT INTO MONDAY...THEN WL INTRODUCE SHWRS NRN NY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT TO BLEND IN WITH CDFNT APRCHNG AREA.

.LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TUES THRU FRI...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS FORCAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TO AFFECT AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH CURRENT FEELING IS THAT BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WITH COOL DRY AIR MOVING IN AT UPPER LEVELS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAYS FRONT ALONG WITH
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT AS
WELL...MOSTLY TO COLLABORATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.


SFH/CTL/EE

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$







FXUS61 KBTV 141931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2004

FOR THE SHORT TERM...RADAR INDCS CNVTN MOVG NE ACRS WRN PTNS OF PA
AND NY IN RESPONSE THAT VORT LOBE THAT HAS BEEN MOVG NE FM ERN LK
ERIE. AS NOTED ERLIER SFC BNDRY FM ERN PA INTO NE NY THEN W ACRS SRN
QUE ATTM. DEW PTS ARE IN THE MID 60S ACRS MUCH OF NY AND PA WHICH IS
SUPPORTING CNVTN.

MAX AXIS OF LO LVL MSTR EXTDS FM CNTRL PA-CNTRL NY TO LK ONT THEN NE
IN TO NE NY. THIS AXIS WL BE MONITORD FOR TSTM DVLPMT AS IT
MOVS FM NE NY INTO WRN VT. FFW WAS ISSUED FOR NE NY AND TSTMS IN NE
NY AND NW VT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
ERLY TNGT.

OTRW...MODELS TAKE H/5 RDG NY STATE MOVS E ACRS NEW ENG TNGT AND OFF
THE NEW ENG CST SAT MRNG. WK VORT MOVS NE ACRS WRN NY THIS AFTN AND
OVR THE RDGE IN SRN CANADA TNGT. AFTR THAT A BROAD H/5 TROF BCMS
ESTABLISHED ACRS GRTLKS...WITH MAIN VORT SHERAING OFF SAT AND MOVG
ALG OR JUST N OF OUR AREA INTO CANADA CONTG SUNDAY. NXT VORT APRCHS
AREA LATE MON/MON NITE.

CDFNT MOVS INTO NRN NY SAT MRNG WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MOVG INTO VT
DURG THE MRNG AND CONTG AFTN. WL CONT CHC SHWR SAT EVE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR...OTRW BCMG PTLY CLDY...AND DRIER AS NEW AIRMASS
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY....AS HI PRES BLDS ACRS SRN CANADA SUNDAY.

DRY WX SHUD CONT INTO MONDAY...THEN WL INTRODUCE SHWRS NRN NY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT TO BLEND IN WITH CDFNT APRCHNG AREA.

.LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TUES THRU FRI...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS FORCAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TO AFFECT AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH CURRENT FEELING IS THAT BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WITH COOL DRY AIR MOVING IN AT UPPER LEVELS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAYS FRONT ALONG WITH
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT AS
WELL...MOSTLY TO COLLABORATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.


SFH/CTL/EE

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

649
ASUS51 KBTV 151011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-151100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    69  62  78 S15G23    29.96S HAZE
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     69  61  75 S7        30.05S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     65  61  87 VRB3      30.00S
RUTLAND        PTCLDY    64  61  88 SE5       30.05R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    62  61  96 SE3       30.07S FOG
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    65  61  87 CALM      30.06S FOG



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