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Expires:200406292034;;159540
FPUS51 KBTV 290628
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-292034-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 290524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TDY THRU THU NGT)...
UNSEASONABLY...COOL...PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW WL CONT THRU THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH SVRL MID-LVL S/W AND SFC REFLECTIONS TO
BRG ABT ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA DEPENDING ON TIMING WITH MAX HEATING.

CRNTLY...A PRONOUNCED AREA OF SHRA ASSOC WITH A S/W MVG ACRS PA/NY
IN CYCLONIC FLOW WAS MVG ACRS CATSKILLS/HUDSON VLY FOR SRN HLF OF
VT AND POINTS E. THEREAFTER...LOOKING UPSTREAM SVRL HRS OF CLRG BFR
NXT S/W ACRS NRN ONTARIO DROPS ACRS QUEBEC/NRN NY LATE TDY/TNGT.

SOME HIGH CLDS WL LIMIT AMT OF MAX HEATING BUT GIVEN THE TREND OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...FCSTD CAPES ARD 500 J/KG IN NRN NY AND UPSTREAM
LTGNG ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE SHLD BE ENUF FOR SCT TSRA THAT WL
SLOWLY ABATE DRG NGT BUT STRNGTH OF S/W WL KEEP SOME HEALTHY SHRA
THRU THE NGT LIKE CRNT ACTVTY IN NY MVG INTO SRN VT. FCSTD EQ LVL
ARD 25K AND H8/H7 WND FIELD OF 30-40KTS...SMLR TO SAT AFTN/EVE THAT
BROUGHT 40KT GUSTS. ONE DFRNC IS LLVL AIRMASS NOT AS DRY FOR BEST
MIXING AS SAT BUT SOME GUSTY WNDS PSBL (ERLR ISSUED SWODY2 TALKS ABT
THIS THREAT).

MOST OF THE SHRA THREAT SHLD SHUT OFF UPON PSG OF MID-LVL S/W
ARD/AFT 06Z WED WITH SOME MINOR RIDGING FOR A NICE DAY ON WED AHD
OF ANTHR NRN STREAM S/W ROTATING ACRS QUEBEC WITH SFC FNT LATE
THU/THU NGT.

AIRMASS WRMR THU WITH MAX AFTN CAPES FCSTD IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE AHD OF S/W AND APPROACHING SFC FNT. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING
ISSUES THAT WUD IMPACT TSRA THREAT LATE THU BUT ATTM LEANING WITH
FASTER ETA SOLN GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW ACRS FA.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
IT APPEARS THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WKND LOOKS DRY AS
COLD...CYCLONIC PATTERN BREAKS AND SOME RIDGING TAKES OVER...BUT
THEN A SRN STREAM CUT-OFF AND SFC LOW PSBLY GETS DRAWN UP FOR THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WKND.

ATTM...NO CHGS TO LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 290133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
935 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
DECENT S/W MVG ACRS PA AND THE FOCUS OF SHRA/TSRA ACRS PA/S CNTL
NY...SMLR TO SAT AFTN/EVE ACTVTY ACRS NY/VT. CRNT TRAJ AND MESO-ETA
INDICATES ACTVTY SHLD MAINLY THREATEN SRN FA BUT A SPRINKLE/TWO CUD
REACH CENTRAL FA AND THUS WORDED AS SLGT FOR CENTRAL/NRN FA.

NXT S/W IN ONTARIO WL MAKE A B-LINE FOR QUEBEC/NRN NY ARD
00Z...PERHAPS A TAD TOO LATE FOR SMLR ACTVTY AS TNGT BUT WORTH
LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AS H7 JET 30-40KTS AND THUS SOME LOW-TOPPED...
GUSTY TSRA.

SLW
&&

.AVIATION...
LWR MID-DECK DOMINATING TNGT WITH LGT/VRBL WNDS AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL TMPS PSBLY LEADING TO ISOLD VLY FOG LIKE KMPV/KSLK. OTHERWISE...
AWAITING NXT S/W THAT CUD BRG SCT TSRA TO NY DRG MID-LATE AFTN WITH
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA TO VT FA BY EVE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TONITE THRU THUR.)...
SHORT WV MVG THRU REGION THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING RW...W/ SOME
ISOLATED TS. WILL TAPER OFF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
SHORT WV EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL PUT IN MENTION OF CHANCE RW W/
ISOLATED TS(THRU EARLY EVENING). SUNSET SHOULD HELP DIMINISH
DYNAMICS FOR TS FORMATION ACROSS CWA.

BRIEF BREAK OVER CWA DURING THE MORN HRS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT
WV WILL DIG SE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS TUES.
MDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG DYNAMICS W/ TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST TO
NORTH OF CWA. JET MAX AT BASE OF TROUGH SWINGS THRU N NY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THEN EAST THRU N VT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WNDS COULD MIX DOWN ACROSS N NY AND VT W/ STRONGEST OVER NY.
POTENTIAL IN 30-40 MPH RANGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS HIGH RANGE FOR
NEXT MDL RUN BUT KEEP N NY IN 15-20MPH RANGE. WILL MENTION CHANCE
TRW. MDLS HV THIS SHORT WV THRU CWA TO OUR NE BY MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL TAPER OFF PRECIP...ENDING IN NE KINGDOM DURING THE
MORNING HRS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION THRU AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-MON)...
WK CDFNT MOVG EWD ACRS FA THU NGT AND ERLY FRI WITH GOOD DRYING BHND
FROPA.  MENTIONED CHC SHWRS/TSTMS ALL ZNS THU NGT THEN DECREASED
POPS FROM W TO E DURG FRI AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WL BE MOVG INTO
THE RGN.  MDLS HAV SLOWED UPCOMING SYS FOR THE WEEKEND AND IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE A PD OF DRY WX FRI NGT THRU SAT AS SFC RDG BLDS ACRS
RGN.  SYS FROM GT LKS WL LIFT NE SAT NGT/SUN.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK OF SFC LOW WITH 00Z OP GFS FURTHEST SOUTH WHILE UK/ECMWF
TRACKED SYS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER DURG SUN.  12Z GFS HAS TRENDED
IN THIS DIRECTION SO IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE WRM SECTOR AMS FOR THE
4TH WITH CHC SHWRS/TSTMS AND HUMID CONDS.  FROPA EXPCTD SUN EVNG
THEN DRY CONDS FOR MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SEASONABLY WRM
TEMPS EXPCTD THRU THE PD AND FOLLOWED MEX GUIDANCE.  SUN HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THE WRMST DAY IF WRM SECTOR AMS MAKES INTO RGN WITH
SUNSHINE.  H8 TEMPS GREATER THAN +15 IN WRM SECTOR WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO 80S BUT TOOK A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
DUE TO CLD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TRACK THIS FAR OUT.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z MON-18Z TUE)...
SHRTWV OVER THE LAKES WL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF RGN TNGT.  BEST LIFT
S OF FA WHERE BEST CHC OF SHWRS BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVE FOR SOME SHWRS AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDS.
OTRW...VFR CONDS EXPCTD THRU THE PD WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN SC/AC THRU
TNGT...THEN SCT CU TUE MRNG BFR MID CLDS AHD OF NXT SHRTWV APCH TWD
END OF PD.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

JN/KC







FXUS61 KBTV 281933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONITE THRU THUR.)...
SHORT WV MVG THRU REGION THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING RW...W/ SOME
ISOLATED TS. WILL TAPER OFF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
SHORT WV EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL PUT IN MENTION OF CHANCE RW W/
ISOLATED TS(THRU EARLY EVENING). SUNSET SHOULD HELP DIMINISH
DYNAMICS FOR TS FORMATION ACROSS CWA.

BRIEF BREAK OVER CWA DURING THE MORN HRS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT
WV WILL DIG SE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS TUES.
MDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG DYNAMICS W/ TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST TO
NORTH OF CWA. JET MAX AT BASE OF TROUGH SWINGS THRU N NY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THEN EAST THRU N VT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WNDS COULD MIX DOWN ACROSS N NY AND VT W/ STRONGEST OVER NY.
POTENTIAL IN 30-40 MPH RANGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS HIGH RANGE FOR
NEXT MDL RUN BUT KEEP N NY IN 15-20MPH RANGE. WILL MENTION CHANCE
TRW. MDLS HV THIS SHORT WV THRU CWA TO OUR NE BY MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL TAPER OFF PRECIP...ENDING IN NE KINGDOM DURING THE
MORNING HRS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION THRU AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-MON)...
WK CDFNT MOVG EWD ACRS FA THU NGT AND ERLY FRI WITH GOOD DRYING BHND
FROPA.  MENTIONED CHC SHWRS/TSTMS ALL ZNS THU NGT THEN DECREASED
POPS FROM W TO E DURG FRI AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WL BE MOVG INTO
THE RGN.  MDLS HAV SLOWED UPCOMING SYS FOR THE WEEKEND AND IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE A PD OF DRY WX FRI NGT THRU SAT AS SFC RDG BLDS ACRS
RGN.  SYS FROM GT LKS WL LIFT NE SAT NGT/SUN.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK OF SFC LOW WITH 00Z OP GFS FURTHEST SOUTH WHILE UK/ECMWF
TRACKED SYS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER DURG SUN.  12Z GFS HAS TRENDED
IN THIS DIRECTION SO IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE WRM SECTOR AMS FOR THE
4TH WITH CHC SHWRS/TSTMS AND HUMID CONDS.  FROPA EXPCTD SUN EVNG
THEN DRY CONDS FOR MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SEASONABLY WRM
TEMPS EXPCTD THRU THE PD AND FOLLOWED MEX GUIDANCE.  SUN HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THE WRMST DAY IF WRM SECTOR AMS MAKES INTO RGN WITH
SUNSHINE.  H8 TEMPS GREATER THAN +15 IN WRM SECTOR WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO 80S BUT TOOK A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
DUE TO CLD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TRACK THIS FAR OUT.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z MON-18Z TUE)...
SHRTWV OVER THE LAKES WL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF RGN TNGT.  BEST LIFT
S OF FA WHERE BEST CHC OF SHWRS BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVE FOR SOME SHWRS AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDS.
OTRW...VFR CONDS EXPCTD THRU THE PD WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN SC/AC THRU
TNGT...THEN SCT CU TUE MRNG BFR MID CLDS AHD OF NXT SHRTWV APCH TWD
END OF PD.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

JN/KC




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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   The requested URL /404/index.html was not found on this server.

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