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Expires:200407202213;;407495
FPUS51 KBTV 200728
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016-202213-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
328 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST
AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 200842 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UNSETTLED WX ONCE AGAIN TDY...BUT A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE PATTERN
FOR WED/THURS...WITH RESULT EXPECTED TO BE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS LODGED OVER THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME.
SERIES OF SHRTWVS CONTINUE TO MOVE THRU THE TROUGH...ENHANCING
SHWR/TSTRM ACTIVITY AT TIMES. ONE DISTURBANCE EXITING ERN VT ATTM.
THERE WERE SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS OF RAIN IN PERSISTENT THNDSTRMS
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE (1-2 INCHES). ANOTHER SHRTWV WILL BE MOVG
ACRS FA THRU MID MORNING. WHILE PCPN AMTS WITH THIS AREA OF SHWRS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT...ANY AMT OF RAIN
WHICH OCCURS IN SATURATED AREAS COULD POSE PROBLEMS. FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...SEEING THAT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE UNUSUALLY LOW ACRS MUCH OF RGN...ESPEC IN VT. (1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN IN A COUPLE OF HRS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING).

A BREAK IN THE SHWR ACTIVITY LATER THIS AM/EARLY PM ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. OUR NEXT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ARRIVES DURING PM
AND CONTINUES INTO TONITE AS SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACRS FA.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS CONTINUES TO BE HVY RAINFALL. H8 TEMPS OF 13 TO 14 C
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80. THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTRMS
CONTINUES TONITE...ALTHO CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WED/THURS: MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WED. TROF AXIS
SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF FA WED ALLOWING FOR SHRTWV RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS
RGN...WITH THE RESULT BEING AT LEAST PRTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPS. H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +15 C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
80S. DRY WX CONTINUES WED NITE UNDER FAIR TO P/C CKIES. HAVE GONE
WITH DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR THURS...WHICH MEANS NO REAL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FCST. CDFNT WILL BE APRCHG FROM GRTLKS...BUT WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT...FRONTS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW. EXPECT BULK OF PCPN TO BE ALG
AND BEHIND FROPA...WHICH DOESN'T OCCUR TILL FRI. H8 TEMPS AROUND
+17 C ON THURS. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
APRCH 90.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FCST. SLOW MOVG CDFNT BRINGS
SHWRS/TSTRMS TO FA ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NITE. BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR SAT/SUN WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN 70'S.
&&

.AVIATION...
DIDN/T SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THE TAFS TONITE WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION TO MONITOR. SOME PATCHY FG POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF
TONITE AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITH MORE ON AND OFF SHRA POSSIBLE
BEFORE A CFROPA BY LATER TONITE. SFC WINDS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
W-NW WITH TIME BY LATER TONITE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/MURRAY

















FXUS61 KBTV 200255 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FM CATSKILLS NW INTO SRN CHMPL VLY IS FOCUS
FOR SOME DVLPG TSRA IN ADVANCE OF PA S/W ROTATING ARD UPR TROF.
INSTABILITY WL WEAKEN OVRNGT AND ACTVTY SHLD SLOWLY LIFT NE ACRS VT
AND WEAKEN WITH TIME.

SOME TIMING CHGS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PRVS FCST...OTHERWISE ALL OK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TNGT THRU THU)...
LAPS ANLYS SHOWING INSTBY INCRG ACRS FA WITH MAX CAPES 1000-1500
J/KG ACRS SRN CHMPLN VLY.  RGNL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS A FEW CELLS
DVLPG BUT NOTHING THAT ORGANIZED.  LEFT EXIT RGN OF UL JET OVR RGN
TAFTN BEFORE LIFTING NE TNGT.  CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS WRN NY AND NW
PA ASSOCD WITH WKNG UL LOW/SHRTWV.  MDLS INDCT THAT THIS SHRTWV WL
WKN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NE ACRS CNTRL NEW ENG THRU 12Z TUE.
MENTIONED CHC SHWRS/TSTMS TNGT BUT CONFINED TSTMS BEFORE MIDNGT AS
ATMOS STABILIZES OVRNGT.  WIND FIELD RATHER WEAK SO MAIN THREAT WL
BE HVY RAFL.

SHRTWV DEPARTING TUE MRNG SO EXPCTG MSTLY DRY CONDS IN THE MRNG THEN
SHWR/TSTM THREAT INCRG DURG AFTN AS CAPES INCRS TO 1000+ J/KG AND
NXT SHRTWV APCHS FM THE W AS MEAN UL TROF RMNS W OF FA.  H8 TMPS
SMLR TO TDA (ARND 13-14) WITH PTSUNNY SKIES SUPPORTS L80S VLYS AND
U70S MTNS.

UL TROF AND SHRTWV FCST TO MOV EWD ACRS FA TUE NGT FOR CONTD CHC
SHWRS/TSTMS...THEN EXPCT IMPROVING CONDS FOR WED AS SHRTWV RDG BLDS
IN BHND DEPARTING TROF.  GFS STILL KEEPING THREAT OF PCPN ACRS
MAINLY ERN ZNS FOR WED WHILE ETA IS DRY.  UK IS A COMROMISE.
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR ERN VT WED DUE TO PROXIMITY OF DEPARTING
TROF BUT NO MENTION IN FCST TEXT.  H8 TMPS 14-15 SO MAXES IN L/M80S
EXPCTD.

DRY WED NGT THEN ETA/GFS DIFFER ON MOVEMENT OF NXT CDFNT AND ASSCD
PCPN FOR THU.  ETA MVS FNT FTHR SWD ACRS ONT/QUEB AND GENERATES
FAIRLY LRG AREA OF PCPN ACRS FA THU AFTN.  GFS HOLDS FNT BACK FTHR
TO NW AND MAINLY DRY.  LEANED TWD GFS SOLN AS UL FLOW SW WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST FNT WL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE SE...SO WENT WITH DRY FCST FOR
THU.  CONTD SW FLOW WL SEND H8 TMPS UP TO 17+ ON THU WITH MAXES
WELL INTO 80S WITH A FEW LOCNS PSBLY APCHG 90.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO NOW APPEARS ON THE HORIZON PER LATEST 00Z
AND 12Z GFS OP SOLNS. MAIN POLAR FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME W/ASSOC CONVECTION. THEN BROAD 1025
HPA CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE BRIDGES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUPPRESSES
FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. THUS MAINLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAYS AND CLEAR CALM NIGHTS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS AREA BY MONDAY BASED
OFF 00Z SOLN OF STRONG RETURN FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL
HIGH ACROSS WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...IF LATEST 12Z GFS OP SOLN
IS CORRECT...SFC POLAR HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MAY HOLD FIRM WITH
ASSOC DRY CONDS PERSISTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VT AND INTO N NY
NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST OF GREEN MTNS SOME MVFR CIGS STILL EVIDENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THROUGH COURSE OF DAY. ONLY
OTHER AFTERNOON CONCERN WOULD BE WDLY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION AND
ASSOC BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS
DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME. AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED
LIFR/IFR CIGS/VIS 08-12Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA
WIDE TOMORROW.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JMG














FXUS61 KBTV 191932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU THU)...
LAPS ANLYS SHOWING INSTBY INCRG ACRS FA WITH MAX CAPES 1000-1500
J/KG ACRS SRN CHMPLN VLY.  RGNL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS A FEW CELLS
DVLPG BUT NOTHING THAT ORGANIZED.  LEFT EXIT RGN OF UL JET OVR RGN
TAFTN BEFORE LIFTING NE TNGT.  CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS WRN NY AND NW
PA ASSOCD WITH WKNG UL LOW/SHRTWV.  MDLS INDCT THAT THIS SHRTWV WL
WKN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NE ACRS CNTRL NEW ENG THRU 12Z TUE.
MENTIONED CHC SHWRS/TSTMS TNGT BUT CONFINED TSTMS BEFORE MIDNGT AS
ATMOS STABILIZES OVRNGT.  WIND FIELD RATHER WEAK SO MAIN THREAT WL
BE HVY RAFL.

SHRTWV DEPARTING TUE MRNG SO EXPCTG MSTLY DRY CONDS IN THE MRNG THEN
SHWR/TSTM THREAT INCRG DURG AFTN AS CAPES INCRS TO 1000+ J/KG AND
NXT SHRTWV APCHS FM THE W AS MEAN UL TROF RMNS W OF FA.  H8 TMPS
SMLR TO TDA (ARND 13-14) WITH PTSUNNY SKIES SUPPORTS L80S VLYS AND
U70S MTNS.

UL TROF AND SHRTWV FCST TO MOV EWD ACRS FA TUE NGT FOR CONTD CHC
SHWRS/TSTMS...THEN EXPCT IMPROVING CONDS FOR WED AS SHRTWV RDG BLDS
IN BHND DEPARTING TROF.  GFS STILL KEEPING THREAT OF PCPN ACRS
MAINLY ERN ZNS FOR WED WHILE ETA IS DRY.  UK IS A COMROMISE.
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR ERN VT WED DUE TO PROXIMITY OF DEPARTING
TROF BUT NO MENTION IN FCST TEXT.  H8 TMPS 14-15 SO MAXES IN L/M80S
EXPCTD.

DRY WED NGT THEN ETA/GFS DIFFER ON MOVEMENT OF NXT CDFNT AND ASSCD
PCPN FOR THU.  ETA MVS FNT FTHR SWD ACRS ONT/QUEB AND GENERATES
FAIRLY LRG AREA OF PCPN ACRS FA THU AFTN.  GFS HOLDS FNT BACK FTHR
TO NW AND MAINLY DRY.  LEANED TWD GFS SOLN AS UL FLOW SW WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST FNT WL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE SE...SO WENT WITH DRY FCST FOR
THU.  CONTD SW FLOW WL SEND H8 TMPS UP TO 17+ ON THU WITH MAXES
WELL INTO 80S WITH A FEW LOCNS PSBLY APCHG 90.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO NOW APPEARS ON THE HORIZON PER LATEST 00Z
AND 12Z GFS OP SOLNS. MAIN POLAR FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME W/ASSOC CONVECTION. THEN BROAD 1025
HPA CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE BRIDGES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUPPRESSES
FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. THUS MAINLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAYS AND CLEAR CALM NIGHTS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS AREA BY MONDAY BASED
OFF 00Z SOLN OF STRONG RETURN FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL
HIGH ACROSS WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...IF LATEST 12Z GFS OP SOLN
IS CORRECT...SFC POLAR HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MAY HOLD FIRM WITH
ASSOC DRY CONDS PERSISTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VT AND INTO N NY
NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST OF GREEN MTNS SOME MVFR CIGS STILL EVIDENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THROUGH COURSE OF DAY. ONLY
OTHER AFTERNOON CONCERN WOULD BE WDLY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION AND
ASSOC BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS
DURING 18-00Z TIME FRAME. AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED
LIFR/IFR CIGS/VIS 08-12Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA
WIDE TOMORROW.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JMG











   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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