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Expires:200407162244;;366978
FPUS51 KBTV 160809
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-162244-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
408 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
AROUND 70. SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 160825 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...
H/5 TROF WRN NY/WRN PA MOVS SLOLY E INTO NEW ENG LTR TDY THRU SAT
AS IT SHEARS OFF TO THE NE. SRN ENERGY SHUD RMN S OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BUT SRN EVOLUTION WL CAUSE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER SUN
NGT THRU MON NGT. QUICK LK AT CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS.

AT 06Z SFC LO CANADIAN/US BORDER RGN OF ST LAW VLY WITH WK FNT
ACRS ERN NEW ENG. SFC WNDS VERY LIGHT AND LO LVLS SATURATED...THUS
EXPCT PTCHY FOG. ASOCD SFC TROF ERN GRTLKS WL SWING ACRS ACRS AREA
20Z-00Z AND WILL ENHNCE SHWRS ALG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND UPR LVL
TROF DYNAMICS.

NO BIG CHGS IN TEMPS AND WX FOR TODAY THRU SUN...WITH SUGGESTION OF
LESS PCPN AS WE WORK OUR WAY THRU THE WEEKEND. FOR TDY CHC MRNG
SHWRS THEN LKLY IN THE AFTN. TEMPS GNRLY IN THE 70S WARMING TO ARND
80 SUNDAY...OVRNGT LOWS ARND 60. WL HV PTCHY FOG DVLPG LATE TNGT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON THRU THURS)...

H/5 LO LFTS SLOLY NE FM WRN PA SUN NGT...ACRS WRN NY DURG MON
THEN INTO CANADA MON NGT. MODEL INDCG SFC LO MOVG THRU NEW ENG
MON...WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE...HOWEVER PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
ADD HI CHC POPS OF SHRS OR RN FOR SUN NGT THRU MON NGT. THEN
FINALLY DRIER WEATHER WED AND THURS. BASED ON PCPN AND CLDS MON...
WILL TWEAK TEMPS BACK FROM 80S TO THE 70S OR ARND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SOME
LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBY. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LIFR CIGS TO LIFT
BY MID MORNING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE GREEN MTS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY TO BECOME VFR LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY IFR VSBYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SFH/WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 160131 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.  ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE FROM PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO KEEP A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALL AREAS TONIGHT.  WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER AS
LAPSE RATES STABILIZE AND ABILITY TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN NEGATED. GOING FORECAST HAS RIGHT IDEA OF FOG DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT AND FLOW IS WEAK. AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.  GOING
FORECAST HAS A REAL GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.  OTHER THAN CHANGES
MENTIONED ABOVE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT)
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVG ACRS NRN NYS INTO ST LWR VLY ATTM.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX AS IT OPENS UP AND GRDLY
WEAKENS WHILE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY ACRS SRN QUE TONITE THRU
FRIDAY. PCPN CHANCES ENHANCED BY SHRTWVS ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW/TROF...AND BY DIURNAL HEATING. RADAR INDICATING NUMEROUS SHWRS
WITH WDLY SCT TSRA. LOCALLY HVY RAINS PSBL IN ANY SHWRS...AND THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. PW'S NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY (CURRENTLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES)...BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
RATHER LOW IN SOME AREAS...ESPEC CHMPLN VLY...CNTRL VT...AND ESSEX
CTY NY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2 INCHES IN AN HR COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THRU
THE EVENING...BUT DIMINISH OVRNGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV AND LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND SFC TROF WL MOVE THRU FA FRI
PM/EVEN...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS FRI...WITH BEST
CHC BEING DURING PM HRS. HAVE CONTD WITH CHC POPS FOR FRI
NITE...ALTHO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SAT/SUN: ULVL TROFINESS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEAK CDFNT
DEPRESSES SOUTH ACRS FA SATURDAY AND WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP SAT. BEST CHC DURING PM/EVEN HRS WITH MAX
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NITE...ALTHO STG SHRTWV
PROGGED TO CARVE OUT YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...THIS ONE OVR OH VLY.
WHILE BEST PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF RGN...HAVE GONE WITH
CHC SHRA/TSRA DURING PM.
&&

.LONG TERM (MON ONWARD)...
WK HI PRESS ACRS THE FA TO BATTLE IT OUT WITH A SERIES OF WK STORM
SYSTEMS THAT/LL BE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST OF THE USA FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ANOTHER CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON
NEXT THU. BEST CHC FOR ANY DRY WX LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND ON THU. SCHC FOR ANY CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF MON/TUE AND...TO A LESSER
EXTENT...ON WED. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA TO ROTATE ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPR LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. KSLK LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHC TO DECOUPLE TONITE...WITH FG A GOOD BET THERE. KMPV/KMSS
ALSO LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY AT LEAST SOME LOWER CLDS THEN. THE
LOW-LVLS AT KBTV LOOK TO BE SATURATED OVRNITE BUT WITH A BIT OF A
BREEZE THAT MAY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FG FORMATION. TS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ANYWHERE ACRS THE FA...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT ANY EXACT
TIMING...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/MURRAY






FXUS61 KBTV 151957
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT)
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVG ACRS NRN NYS INTO ST LWR VLY ATTM.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX AS IT OPENS UP AND GRDLY
WEAKENS WHILE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY ACRS SRN QUE TONITE THRU
FRIDAY. PCPN CHANCES ENHANCED BY SHRTWVS ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW/TROF...AND BY DIURNAL HEATING. RADAR INDICATING NUMEROUS SHWRS
WITH WDLY SCT TSRA. LOCALLY HVY RAINS PSBL IN ANY SHWRS...AND THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. PW'S NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY (CURRENTLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES)...BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
RATHER LOW IN SOME AREAS...ESPEC CHMPLN VLY...CNTRL VT...AND ESSEX
CTY NY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2 INCHES IN AN HR COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THRU
THE EVENING...BUT DIMINISH OVRNGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV AND LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND SFC TROF WL MOVE THRU FA FRI
PM/EVEN...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS FRI...WITH BEST
CHC BEING DURING PM HRS. HAVE CONTD WITH CHC POPS FOR FRI
NITE...ALTHO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SAT/SUN: ULVL TROFINESS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEAK CDFNT
DEPRESSES SOUTH ACRS FA SATURDAY AND WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP SAT. BEST CHC DURING PM/EVEN HRS WITH MAX
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NITE...ALTHO STG SHRTWV
PROGGED TO CARVE OUT YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...THIS ONE OVR OH VLY.
WHILE BEST PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF RGN...HAVE GONE WITH
CHC SHRA/TSRA DURING PM.
&&

.LONG TERM (MON ONWARD)...
WK HI PRESS ACRS THE FA TO BATTLE IT OUT WITH A SERIES OF WK STORM
SYSTEMS THAT/LL BE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST OF THE USA FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ANOTHER CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON
NEXT THU. BEST CHC FOR ANY DRY WX LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND ON THU. SCHC FOR ANY CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF MON/TUE AND...TO A LESSER
EXTENT...ON WED. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA TO ROTATE ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPR LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. KSLK LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHC TO DECOUPLE TONITE...WITH FG A GOOD BET THERE. KMPV/KMSS
ALSO LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY AT LEAST SOME LOWER CLDS THEN. THE
LOW-LVLS AT KBTV LOOK TO BE SATURATED OVRNITE BUT WITH A BIT OF A
BREEZE THAT MAY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FG FORMATION. TS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ANYWHERE ACRS THE FA...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT ANY EXACT
TIMING...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/MURRAY






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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