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Expires:200407172253;;377672
FPUS51 KBTV 170809
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-172253-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
408 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING CLOUDY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 80.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 80.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 170831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...
H/5 IMPLULSE NOTED OVR GULF OF ST LAW ON SATL IMAGERY AGREES WITH
00Z H/5 ANALYSIS. THIS SYS CONTS MOVG AWAY FM AREA. HOWEVER...
GNRL h/5 CYC PATTERN WL CONT OVR AREA. ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING THRU
CNTRL/ERN GRTLKS DEPICTED IN ENHNCD SATL IMAGERY.

SFC LO GULF OF ST LAW WITH CDFNT E OF NEW ENG. SECONDARY SFC TROF
ERN GRTLKS WL MOV ACRS NRN NY LATE MRNG AND VT IN THE AFTN. EXPECT
CHC SHWR WITH TROF PASSAGE...PSBL TSTM BASED ON INSTBLTY. FLO CONTS
LIGHT ACRS NE THRU THE WKEND...THUS CLDS RETURN SUNDAY AFTN WITH CHC
SHWRS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SRN H/5 TROF CONTS FM OH VLY S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THIS SYS LIFTS SLOLY NE SUN NGT AND MON. GFS DVLPS CSTL LO PRES MOVG
NE MON...WHILE ETA WEAKER AND MORE INLAND. PREFER WEAKER LOW...
BUT WITH CSTL TRACK OR JUST OFSHR AS A COMPROMISE. NOTICED CANADIAN
MODEL TRACKS LOW OFSHR.

EXPECT STEADIEST PCPN TO BE IN ERN NEW ENG...THUS WL CONT CHC SHWRS
THRU MON...WITH SHWRS DECREASING IN COVERAGE TUESDAY. THEREAFTER
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. DRY WEATHER WED WITH CHC SHWRS THURS/FRI
WITH UPR LVL TROF GRTLKS AND ASOCD SFC SYS MOVG ALG NY/CANADIAN
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL OBSCURE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN
MTS. MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING. RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND FOG AND MIST PATCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING
SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SFH/WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 170202 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1002 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE OF TODAYS SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED
TONIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...FEEL THAT
DIMINISHING TREND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS
HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

LAHIFF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO MAINTAINING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEY DIGRESS IN HOW THEY HANDLE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WHICH WILL DROP INTO OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
THE RESULTING TRACK OF ASSOCD SFC LOW.

CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS SHWRS ACRS FA ATTM...ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AN ALL DAY EVENT FOR MUCH OF NRN NY...BUT
RESTRICTED TO THE PM HRS IN VT. SFC LOW TRACKING SLOWLY THRU SRN
QUE WHILE SERIES OF SHRTWVS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND DEPARTING
UPPER LOW. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WRN ZONES...BUT
MAY NOT UNTIL 06Z EAST...AFTER WHICH LAST IN SERIES OF SHRTWVS
EXITS RGN. TO THIS POINT...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE IN WAY OF
TSRA...AS INSTABILITY LIMITED. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE FLOOD POTENTIAL
PROBLEMS (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW). WITH LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTIFUL
LLVL MSTR OVRNGHT...EXPECT FORMATION OF SOME FOG.

SAT/SAT NITE: HAVE CONTD WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK CDFNT DROPS
SOUTH THRU FA. MODERATE INSTABILITY FCST DURING EXPECTED TIME OF
FROPA. CHC SHRA/TSRA SAT EVENING...ESPECIALLY SRN ZONES...THEN P/C
OVRNGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT: UNSETTLED WX TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER DEEP H5 TROF DVLPS IN OH VLY. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ASSOCD LOW WILL TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST
CONTD WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
STORM SYS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION AND UP ACRS ERN CANADA ON
TUE...AS AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE FA. WK HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA
ON WED. ANOTHER CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA SOMETIME ON NEXT THU/FRI. CHC
FOR ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF TUE AND ON
THU/FRI...WITH DRY WX IN BETWEEN. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA TO ROTATE ACRS AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE FA THRU MUCH OF
TONITE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER THAT THOUGH.
GOOD CHC FOR SOME FG AT KMSS/KSLK OVRNITE TONITE...WITH A LESSER CHC
AT KMPV. ALL THE ABOVE SITES SHOULD DECOUPLE TONITE...WITH KBTV
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A TAD TOO WARM (WITH A TAD TOO MUCH WIND) FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT FG FORMATION. SFC WINDS TO BECOME MORE W-NW WITH
TIME BY LATER TONITE AND EARLY ON SAT. A FEW LTG STRIKES ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS...BUT PROLLY NOT AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
6-7HR QPE (THRU AROUND 18Z) SHOWED THE MOST PCPN ACRS ST LAW AND
FRANKLIN CTYS IN NY STATE (AOB 1.2")...WITH A FEW SPECKS AOA 0.5"
EAST OF THERE ACRS THE CHAMP VLY. PW VALUES INTO THIS EVENING TO BE
AROUND 1.5" ACRS THE FA. 1-3HR FFG VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.3-1.6"
ACRS WRN ESSEX CTY NY AND MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT. WILL CONT TO
MONITOR FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT EXCEEDS THESE VALUES...BUT THE CHCS
FOR ANY +TSRA LOOK A LIL LESS THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/MURRAY











FXUS61 KBTV 162001 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
3400 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO MAINTAINING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEY DIGRESS IN HOW THEY HANDLE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WHICH WILL DROP INTO OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
THE RESULTING TRACK OF ASSOCD SFC LOW.

CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS SHWRS ACRS FA ATTM...ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AN ALL DAY EVENT FOR MUCH OF NRN NY...BUT
RESTRICTED TO THE PM HRS IN VT. SFC LOW TRACKING SLOWLY THRU SRN
QUE WHILE SERIES OF SHRTWVS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND DEPARTING
UPPER LOW. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WRN ZONES...BUT
MAY NOT UNTIL 06Z EAST...AFTER WHICH LAST IN SERIES OF SHRTWVS
EXITS RGN. TO THIS POINT...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE IN WAY OF
TSRA...AS INSTABILITY LIMITED. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE FLOOD POTENTIAL
PROBLEMS (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW). WITH LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTIFUL
LLVL MSTR OVRNGHT...EXPECT FORMATION OF SOME FOG.

SAT/SAT NITE: HAVE CONTD WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK CDFNT DROPS
SOUTH THRU FA. MODERATE INSTABILITY FCST DURING EXPECTED TIME OF
FROPA. CHC SHRA/TSRA SAT EVENING...ESPECIALLY SRN ZONES...THEN P/C
OVRNGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT: UNSETTLED WX TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER DEEP H5 TROF DVLPS IN OH VLY. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ASSOCD LOW WILL TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST
CONTD WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
STORM SYS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION AND UP ACRS ERN CANADA ON
TUE...AS AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE FA. WK HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA
ON WED. ANOTHER CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA SOMETIME ON NEXT THU/FRI. CHC
FOR ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF TUE AND ON
THU/FRI...WITH DRY WX IN BETWEEN. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA TO ROTATE ACRS AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE FA THRU MUCH OF
TONITE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER THAT THOUGH.
GOOD CHC FOR SOME FG AT KMSS/KSLK OVRNITE TONITE...WITH A LESSER CHC
AT KMPV. ALL THE ABOVE SITES SHOULD DECOUPLE TONITE...WITH KBTV
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A TAD TOO WARM (WITH A TAD TOO MUCH WIND) FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT FG FORMATION. SFC WINDS TO BECOME MORE W-NW WITH
TIME BY LATER TONITE AND EARLY ON SAT. A FEW LTG STRIKES ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS...BUT PROLLY NOT AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
6-7HR QPE (THRU AROUND 18Z) SHOWED THE MOST PCPN ACRS ST LAW AND
FRANKLIN CTYS IN NY STATE (AOB 1.2")...WITH A FEW SPECKS AOA 0.5"
EAST OF THERE ACRS THE CHAMP VLY. PW VALUES INTO THIS EVENING TO BE
AROUND 1.5" ACRS THE FA. 1-3HR FFG VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.3-1.6"
ACRS WRN ESSEX CTY NY AND MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT. WILL CONT TO
MONITOR FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT EXCEEDS THESE VALUES...BUT THE CHCS
FOR ANY +TSRA LOOK A LIL LESS THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/MURRAY








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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