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Expires:200407182310;;387882
FPUS51 KBTV 180832
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-182310-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
433 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES EARLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 60.
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 60.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 30
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 80. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS AROUND 80. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 180938 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
537 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUES)...
PATTERN WL BE SLO TO CHG...SO UPCOMING WEEK OFFERS MUCH THE SAME
PIC. PESKY H/5 TROF CONTS IN THE E. WK SFC HI SRN QUE HAS RESULTED
IN CLEARING SKIES ATTM WITH PTCHY FOG RESULTING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLRLY SHOWS H/5 LO ERN OH VLY...THUS EXPC SOME
SUN THIS MRNG...BUT THEN CLDS AND MOISTURE SPRD OUR WAY FM THIS
SYS. WL WORD AS MORNING SUN WITH INCRS CLDS...CHC AFTN/EVE
SHWR/TSTM. WL INCLUDE LCLY HVY RAIN PSBL DUE TO ANY DAYTIME HEATING.
THIS WORDING SHUD BLEND WITH OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THRU
COLLABORATION. THEREAFTER...CHC SHWRS WL CONT TNGT WITH PTCHY FOG.

AS CSTL SYS EVOLVES...PCPN MAY BE OVERDONE FOR OUR AREA...AND
MOVES NE ALG CST...WL CONT CHC SHWRS MON INTO TUES. WL NEED TO
MONITOR RAINFALL RATES LATE TODAY AND THIS EVE AND AGAIN MON...
BASED ON RAINFALL OF PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THEREAFTER...UPPER LVL RDG MOVS INTO NE WED...SO HV WORDED AS PTLY
SUNNY AND DRY. NXT SYS MOVS THRU GRTLKS THURS AND FRI...AND HV
INTRODUCED SCT SHWRS/TSTMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH RMNDR OF PD. PCPN
SHUD NOT BE AS HVY AS PAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LCL IFR IN PTCHY MRNG FOG...AND SCT AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS. THEN PTCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG WL FORM WITH IFR CONDS. A STORM SYS MOVG UP THE EAST
COAST WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS VT/NRN NY MONDAY WITH LCL
IFR CONDS. HIR TRRN OBSCD IN FOG AND PCPN AREAS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SFH/WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 180238 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY HAS ALL DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND FROM DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE
IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. ONLY CLOUDS OVER REGION ARE MOSTLY BROKEN CIRRUS
DECK FROM VORTICITY MAX ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK OVERNIGHT. GOING
FORECAST HAS ALL THIS COVERED WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO ZONE FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION WORDING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

LAHIFF

.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUES)...
DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH SETTING SUN SO LEFT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR EARLY EVENING AND MENTIONED
HEAVY RAIN MAINLY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. LITTLE AREAL COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE.

UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF COVERING EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG VORT CENTER SPINNING AROUND IN OH. LATEST
MODELS COMING INTO GENERAL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MID ALTLANTIC COAST
THEN UP THE HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD BTV BY 00Z TUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING OVER 1.5-1.75" BY TUESDAY AS MOITURE IS TRANSPORTED
INTO THE AREA.

MODEL PRECIPITATION DETAILS DIFFER HOWEVER. GFS VS ETA MOS POPS FOR
SUNDAY RANGE FROM 60 ON GFS TO 25 ON THE ETA. SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE FOR SUNDAY WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY REMAINS THE
INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN LIFT. MAIN QG FORCING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.  SOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BRING IN MARINE AIR
AT LOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BREAK INTO THE
WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH. ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE UNSTABLE AIR ON TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MAINLY SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ALONG W/A DAILY CHC
OF SHRAS/TSRAS THROUGH THE EXT PORTIONS OF FCST AS UNUSUALLY
AMPLIFIED MID SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS LOWER 48. MAINLY SCT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WED/THU SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIME BY FRI INTO
SAT AS STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH HOLDS STUBBORN WHILE
APPROACHING SFC FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH
WDLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION AND ASSOC IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL BR/FG ACROSS FAVORED LOCALES
LATER TONIGHT AS CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS MAY BE ECLIPSED...BUT WILL
RESERVE MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...GOFF











FXUS61 KBTV 172004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUES)...
DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH SETTING SUN SO LEFT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR EARLY EVENING AND MENTIONED
HEAVY RAIN MAINLY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. LITTLE AREAL COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE.

UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF COVERING EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG VORT CENTER SPINNING AROUND IN OH. LATEST
MODELS COMING INTO GENERAL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MID ALTLANTIC COAST
THEN UP THE HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD BTV BY 00Z TUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING OVER 1.5-1.75" BY TUESDAY AS MOITURE IS TRANSPORTED
INTO THE AREA.

MODEL PRECIPITATION DETAILS DIFFER HOWEVER. GFS VS ETA MOS POPS FOR
SUNDAY RANGE FROM 60 ON GFS TO 25 ON THE ETA. SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE FOR SUNDAY WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY REMAINS THE
INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN LIFT. MAIN QG FORCING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.  SOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BRING IN MARINE AIR
AT LOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BREAK INTO THE
WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH. ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE UNSTABLE AIR ON TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MAINLY SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ALONG W/A DAILY CHC
OF SHRAS/TSRAS THROUGH THE EXT PORTIONS OF FCST AS UNUSUALLY
AMPLIFIED MID SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS LOWER 48. MAINLY SCT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WED/THU SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIME BY FRI INTO
SAT AS STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH HOLDS STUBBORN WHILE
APPROACHING SFC FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH
WDLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION AND ASSOC IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL BR/FG ACROSS FAVORED LOCALES
LATER TONIGHT AS CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS MAY BE ECLIPSED...BUT WILL
RESERVE MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...GOFF








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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