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FPUS51 KBTV 170802
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-172100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
400 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS 45 TO 50.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 170753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
TROF TO MOVE IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONITE. HI PRESS
RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND THEN ACRS THE FA
ON MON THRU TUE. STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG ON
TUE. WK S/W TO MOVE ACRS SRN VT ON MON NITE.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MON AND AGAIN ON
TUE...WITH WK WAA ON MON NITE. H85 TEMPS TO GO POSITIVE AGAIN ACRS
THE FA BY 12-18Z TUE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS
THE FA ON TUE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND
TONITE...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR LINGERING ACRS THE FA ON MON. SOME
LOW-LVL (AND MID-LVL) MSTR TO AFFECT SRN VT LATE ON MON NITE AND FOR
MUCH OF TUE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MON.
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TODAY. BEST MID-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT THE FA TODAY...WITH SOME MID-LVL MSTR LINGERING ACRS THE FA
EARLY TONITE. REGIONAL GPS IPW SITES SHOW VALUES OF AROUND 0.6" ATTM.
PW VALUES TO BASICALLY BE AROUND 0.5" ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU TUE.

OUTSIDE OF ANY LK EFFECT PCPN...BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS JUST SCT PCPN
ACRS THE FA ATTM. BASED ON THE LATEST ETA BUFR DATA AND BTV WSETA
OUTPUT...LK EFFECT PCPN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOSTLY THE ST LAW VLY
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH ACRS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO TONITE. WILL GO
WITH HIR POPS IN THE FAVORED LK EFFECT REGIONS TODAY AND TONITE...
WITH SCT/CHC POPS OTRW. THE VERY HIGHEST TRRN OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME
WET SNOW FLAKES TODAY...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE HIR TRRN
LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHC AT SEEING SOME SHSN TONITE BEFORE THE PCPN
SHUTS DOWN.

NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN ACRS THE REGION APPEARS TO BE BY LATER ON MON
NITE AND EARLY ON TUE ACRS MOSTLY SRN VT...WHERE SCHC/CHC POPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE GOING FCST FOR THEN. LATEST MODEL DATA STILL
CONFLICTED ON THIS PART OF THE FCST...BUT THERE/S PLENTY OF TIME FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO TWEAK AS NEEDED.

T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-L50S TODAY AND IN THE M-U40S ON MON. FEW
TWEAKS TO TEMPS/WINDS IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD BASED ON THIS DATA AND
THE LATEST FWC/MAV DATA.

.LONG TERM (TUE NITE ONWARD)...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ASAP.

MURRAY

.AVIATION...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY COLD AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW. ANY SUNNY BREAKS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY
WILL BE BRIEF AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREEN MTS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. EXPECTING CIGS ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK TO BE MAINLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT THERE WILL
BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VLY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AFT
04Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THERE.

WGH

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$





FXUS61 KBTV 170059 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
859 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL GOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED
IN THE FIRST PERIOD.  WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT TO PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.  GOING FORECAST OF
SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.  ISSUE WILL
BE HOW MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TO PRODUCE ANY SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  FEEL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AND SNOW
LEVELS DO NOT LOWER TO ABOUT 3000 FEET UNTIL ABOUT 12Z...WHEN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  SO MODIFIED SNOW POTENTIAL WORDING IN
APPROPRIATE ZONES.  TWEAKED WINDS DOWN JUST A BIT AS WELL...
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN
GOOD SHAPE.  LATER PERIODS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.  COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EVENTUALLY GET INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT.
AGAIN...GOING FORECAST HAS THIS IDEA COVERED WELL.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM...
.SHORT TERM (TNGT-TUE)...
CWA CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN FRNT WHICH MVD NORTH OF REGION THIS
MORNING...AND UPPER TROUGH SET BACK IN THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME
SCATTERED PRECIP SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL RADARS OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH
WHICH WILL MV N AND E THRU REGION TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW.

LATEST MDL RUNS SHOW VERY HIGH POPS FOR THE ONSET FOR PRECIP MVG
INTO CWA THIS EVENING. THEY LOOK TOO HIGH BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WHAT IS ALREADY SHOWING UP CURRENTLY ON RADAR. WILL SCALE THESE POPS
BACK TO LIKELY FOR ENTIRE CWA THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN BULK OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE THRU...THEN WILL TAPER OF TO CHANCE POPS FROM 05Z-12Z.
COLD AIR WILL MV INTO THE CWA FROM THE WSW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -SW BUT ONLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
DACKS AND NE KINGDOM. AIR MAY BE TOO MODIFIED COMING IN FROM SW
DIRECTION TO MAKE -SW VERY WIDESPREAD. LOOKING FOR NO ACCUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WNDS UP IN ST LAW VALLEY REGION. BUFKIT SHOWS
POSSIBILITY OF MIXING DOWN TO OVER 30 MPH...BUT GOING FORECAST 15 TO
25 MPH LOOKS APPROP. ATTM...ALTHOUGH SOME 30-40MPH GUSTS SEEN ON
BACKSIDE OF TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LKS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON
FOR NEXT PACKAGE.

SWODY1 SUGGESTS CHANCE FOR TS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
DUE TO STRONG LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. AFTER LOOKING AT
OTHER PARAMETERS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY IN FORECAST AS ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUNS SETS LATER
TDY.

UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAGER AND SLOWLY MV
THRU CWA WITH ITS WESTERN EXTENT STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CWA
INTO MON MORN. ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE STILL REMAINING FROM SYSTEM AND
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP AND AGAIN WITH -SW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO REGION FURTHER SUN NITE/MON MORN.
AGAIN NO ACCUM EXPECTED.

SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN OVER REGION FROM CANADA ON MON.
LATEST MDL SUGGEST THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP FOR SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED ON TUES...SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH...LEAVING CWA DRY. WILL GO
AHEAD AND DROP POPS WAY BACK TO NEAR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW AND AWAIT
FURTHER RUNS TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NITE-SAT)...
SHAPING UP AS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WX WITH MAINLY CLDY SKIES AND
THE CHC OF SHWRS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SERIES OF TROFS/SHRTWVS MOVE
ACRS RGN. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TUES NITE INTO ERN QUE AND THEN
MOVES TO MARITIMES WED. THIS ALLOWS FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE EAST FROM GRTLKS...RESULTING IN CHC OF SHWRS LATER TUES
NITE/WED...AND AGAIN LATER THURS/THURS NITE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACRS FA LATER FRI WITH THREAT OF MORE SHWRS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS RGN SAT ACPYD BY CHC SHWRS ONCE AGAIN.
CLDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER SMALL DIRRNAL RANGE IN TEMPS THRU THE
PERIOD. COOL MAX TEMPS DURING FIRST PART OF PERIOD...BUT WARMER BY
FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY WITH RESULT BEING MAINLY
CLDY SKIES AND THE CHC OF SHWRS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS PM WITH
CIGS AROUND 3500 FT AND VSBY UNRESTICTED. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHWRS ACRS REGION FROM 21Z THRU 06Z...WITH OCNL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. CHC OF SHWRS DIMINISHES AFTER 06Z...THEN INCREASES AGAIN
AFT 12Z SUNDAY KMSS AND KSLK. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 06Z-18Z
KMSS/KBTV...AND MAINLY MVFR CIGS KSLK/KMPV.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JN
LONG TERM/AVIATION.....RJS







FXUS61 KBTV 161859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-TUE)...
CWA CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN FRNT WHICH MVD NORTH OF REGION THIS
MORNING...AND UPPER TROUGH SET BACK IN THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME
SCATTERED PRECIP SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL RADARS OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH
WHICH WILL MV N AND E THRU REGION TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW.

LATEST MDL RUNS SHOW VERY HIGH POPS FOR THE ONSET FOR PRECIP MVG
INTO CWA THIS EVENING. THEY LOOK TOO HIGH BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WHAT IS ALREADY SHOWING UP CURRENTLY ON RADAR. WILL SCALE THESE POPS
BACK TO LIKELY FOR ENTIRE CWA THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN BULK OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE THRU...THEN WILL TAPER OF TO CHANCE POPS FROM 05Z-12Z.
COLD AIR WILL MV INTO THE CWA FROM THE WSW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -SW BUT ONLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
DACKS AND NE KINGDOM. AIR MAY BE TOO MODIFIED COMING IN FROM SW
DIRECTION TO MAKE -SW VERY WIDESPREAD. LOOKING FOR NO ACCUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WNDS UP IN ST LAW VALLEY REGION. BUFKIT SHOWS
POSSIBILITY OF MIXING DOWN TO OVER 30 MPH...BUT GOING FORECAST 15 TO
25 MPH LOOKS APPROP. ATTM...ALTHOUGH SOME 30-40MPH GUSTS SEEN ON
BACKSIDE OF TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LKS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON
FOR NEXT PACKAGE.

SWODY1 SUGGESTS CHANCE FOR TS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
DUE TO STRONG LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. AFTER LOOKING AT
OTHER PARAMETERS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY IN FORECAST AS ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUNS SETS LATER
TDY.

UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAGER AND SLOWLY MV
THRU CWA WITH ITS WESTERN EXTENT STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CWA
INTO MON MORN. ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE STILL REMAINING FROM SYSTEM AND
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP AND AGAIN WITH -SW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO REGION FURTHER SUN NITE/MON MORN.
AGAIN NO ACCUM EXPECTED.

SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN OVER REGION FROM CANADA ON MON.
LATEST MDL SUGGEST THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP FOR SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED ON TUES...SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH...LEAVING CWA DRY. WILL GO
AHEAD AND DROP POPS WAY BACK TO NEAR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW AND AWAIT
FURTHER RUNS TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NITE-SAT)...
SHAPING UP AS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WX WITH MAINLY CLDY SKIES AND
THE CHC OF SHWRS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SERIES OF TROFS/SHRTWVS MOVE
ACRS RGN. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TUES NITE INTO ERN QUE AND THEN
MOVES TO MARITIMES WED. THIS ALLOWS FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE EAST FROM GRTLKS...RESULTING IN CHC OF SHWRS LATER TUES
NITE/WED...AND AGAIN LATER THURS/THURS NITE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACRS FA LATER FRI WITH THREAT OF MORE SHWRS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS RGN SAT ACPYD BY CHC SHWRS ONCE AGAIN.
CLDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER SMALL DIRRNAL RANGE IN TEMPS THRU THE
PERIOD. COOL MAX TEMPS DURING FIRST PART OF PERIOD...BUT WARMER BY
FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY WITH RESULT BEING MAINLY
CLDY SKIES AND THE CHC OF SHWRS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS PM WITH
CIGS AROUND 3500 FT AND VSBY UNRESTICTED. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHWRS ACRS REGION FROM 21Z THRU 06Z...WITH OCNL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. CHC OF SHWRS DIMINISHES AFTER 06Z...THEN INCREASES AGAIN
AFT 12Z SUNDAY KMSS AND KSLK. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 06Z-18Z
KMSS/KBTV...AND MAINLY MVFR CIGS KSLK/KMPV.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JN
LONG TERM/AVIATION.....RJS





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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