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Expires:200410152054;;257655
FPUS51 KBTV 150817
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-152054-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
230 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND
50. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 150621
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
220 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TDY-SUN NGT)...
THE WELL ADVERTISED WIND/RAIN STORM WL BE ARRIVING THIS EVE-MIDNGT
WITH BREEZY...COOLER CONDS CONT THRU WKND. ALTHOUGH ALL MDLS AND
ENSEMBLES HNDLD THE >5 STD DEV DEEP TROF ACRS SE CONUS...THE ETA
FM ERLR IN THE WEEK HNDLD THE HOLDING ONTO THE GRT LAKES PRIMARY
AND HAVING A WEAKER WAVE ALG OCLD FNT BETTER AS VRY STG S/W ROUNDED
THE TROF AND MVD UP THE ERN SEABOARD.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FAR BACK ACRS GRT LAKES HAS MADE FOR A
LEESER THREAT OF WIND/HVY RAIN FRI NGT ACRS FA BUT STL SOME
BREEZY...COOLER CONDS SAT AFTN-SUN. THE COOL DOWN WL BE LESS
DRAMATIC AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR IS FURTHER W AND GRDL CAA FM
SSW FLOW...SLGTLY MODIFYING AS IT MVS INTO FA.

INSTABILITY -SHRA SAT WL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS XPCTD...VRY SCT
WITH THE XCPTN OF GRT CONCENTRATION ACRS ST LWRNC VLY/WRN ADRNDKS
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SET-UP. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CAA ACRS RELATIVELY
MILD LAKE ONTARIO AND 220-230 FLOW WL SPELL -SHRA WITH GRDL -SHSN
IN HIER ELEV OF WRN ADRNDKS SAT NGT/SUN.

THE WRAPARD PHASE MVS INTO FA SAT NGT/SUN BUT WITH WSW FLOW...MAINLY
A NRN NY/NRN VT/WRN SLOPE SCT ACTVTY AND PRIMARILY DRY FOR LWR CT
RVR VLY AND CHMPL VLY FLOORS ON SUN.

DEEP TROF AXIS ROTATES ENE SUN NGT WITH MORE ZONAL W FLOW AND SE
CONUS SFC RDG POKING N TOWARD FA FOR S DRIER SUN NGT/MON.

&&

.LONGER TERM (MON-THU)...

GIVEN SE CONUS RDG AND WEAK ULVL RDG ACRS FA MON...I'LL MAKE A CHG
TO MON TO ELIMINATE -SHRA THREAT. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF LONGER
TERM LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE -RA VS. -SHRA IN NATURE
WITH OVERRUNNING FM A SRN STREAM SYSTEM MON NGT-TUES. THEREAFTER...
IT LOOKS AS PATTERN SHIFT WITH WRN TROF AND ECOAST RIDGING FOR A
MILD STRETCH INTO LATE WK.

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
WIDEPSREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO MOIST SE FLOW/-SHRA
AND TONIGHT W/APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT COURSE OF DAY WITH SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE
THROUGH NOON. THEN MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE LOW MVFR
CIGS...ESP E OF GREEN MTNS. BY TONIGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDS AREA WIDE AND SCT AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN
FG FORMING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JMG

















FXUS61 KBTV 150255 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...
ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  RADAR CONFIRMS
INITIAL S/WV LIFTING NEWRD THRU NEW ENGLAND HAS WEAKENED AND WILL
SOON BE PAST.  WEAK SFC LOW IN THE ERN LAKES AND NEAR CAPE COD HAVE
LAGGED THE PASSAGE OF THE S/WV AND WILL STILL CONTRIBTE TO SOME WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY MSTR INFLOW.  DROPPED POPS AND ONLY RETAINED SPRINKLES
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR N/CNTRL AND NERN VT.  STILL...CLOUDS WILL
LKLY LOWER AND THICKEN WITH RISING SFC DWPTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MSTR ADVECTION.  NO CHANGE FOR LATER PERIODS...EXPECT MORE GENERAL
RAINFALL EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONITE-SUN)...
RAINY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. CURRENTLY...THIS AFTERNOON TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS NEAR
CWA...WITH ONE WEST OF REGION OVER THE GREAT LKS...WHILE THE OTHER
RESIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED RW/R SHOWING UP ON AREAS
RADARS MUCH OF WHICH HAS STAYED FAR SOUTH OF CWA ALL DAY. WITH THESE
SPLIT LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF CWA...TAKING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THEM
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR OVERNITE RAIN AND IT AGREES W/ LATEST MDL
RUNS. WILL GO WITH 30 POPS OVERNITE WITH MUCH OF PRECIP STAYING OUT
OF CWA.

EXTENSIVE CLD COVER OF CWA ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN CURRENT SYSTEM AND WILL BRING STEADIER RAINS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORN. MDLS SUGGEST UP TO AN INCH QPF OVER
NITE FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT MORN.

MAIN LOW WILL MV NORTH OVER EASTERN GREAT LKS DURING THE DY
SATURDAY. WRAP-AROUND FLOW WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR INTO SYSTEM FROM
THE SW...WITH THICKNESSES BLW 540(LOWS IN THE 30S)...SAT NITE INTO
SUN MORN. WILL OPT TO PUT MIX OF POSSIBLE RW/SW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE DACKS AND NE KINGDOM DURING THIS TIME. OTHER
ISSUE FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF LOW. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
BUT LOOKING FOR IT TO BE CONCENTRATED IN N NY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAW VALL. WILL ADJUST WIND GRIDS TO SHOW INCR WINDY COND THERE.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (SUN NITE-THUR)...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF HUDSONS BAY WILL LIFT NORTH SUN
NITE/MON...ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVEMENT IN WX CONDITIONS SUN NITE.
CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE DECREASNG SUN NITE (HAVE CONT'D WITH SLITE CHC
SHWRS) AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE RESPITE
FROM UNSETTLED WX WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER. SFC RIDGE MOVES ACRS AREA
EARLY MONDAY...BUT NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPRCH FROM OH VLY
MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT OF PCPN MON PM/NITE. COOL ENOUGH ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER NRN ZONES...BUT BLYR TEMPS LIKELY TO BE TOO
WARM...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED RAIN SHWRS ATTM. LOW EXITS EAST COAST
TUES...AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM NORTH OF
THE GRTLKS. HAVE LEFT IN A LOW CHC OF SHWRS FOR TUES/WED...ALTHO 12Z
GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE IMPROVEMENT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
RUNS...SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE TUE THRU THURS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPS NOT FAR FROM CLIMO DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
WITH TIME. CHC SHWRS AFTER ABOUT 02Z. CIGS/VSNYS LOWERING TO MVFR
RANGE AFTER SHWRS END (BY AROUND 08Z) WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
KMPV BY 09Z. VSBYS WILL BECOME VFR MID MORNING FRIDAY...BUT CIGS
ONLY EXPECTED IN 1000 TO 3000 FT RANGE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN/REB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS




















FXUS61 KBTV 141855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
255 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONITE-SUN)...
RAINY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY. CURRENTLY...THIS AFTERNOON TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS NEAR
CWA...WITH ONE WEST OF REGION OVER THE GREAT LKS...WHILE THE OTHER
RESIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED RW/R SHOWING UP ON AREAS
RADARS MUCH OF WHICH HAS STAYED FAR SOUTH OF CWA ALL DAY. WITH THESE
SPLIT LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF CWA...TAKING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THEM
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR OVERNITE RAIN AND IT AGREES W/ LATEST MDL
RUNS. WILL GO WITH 30 POPS OVERNITE WITH MUCH OF PRECIP STAYING OUT
OF CWA.

EXTENSIVE CLD COVER OF CWA ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN CURRENT SYSTEM AND WILL BRING STEADIER RAINS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORN. MDLS SUGGEST UP TO AN INCH QPF OVER
NITE FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT MORN.

MAIN LOW WILL MV NORTH OVER EASTERN GREAT LKS DURING THE DY
SATURDAY. WRAP-AROUND FLOW WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR INTO SYSTEM FROM
THE SW...WITH THICKNESSES BLW 540(LOWS IN THE 30S)...SAT NITE INTO
SUN MORN. WILL OPT TO PUT MIX OF POSSIBLE RW/SW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE DACKS AND NE KINGDOM DURING THIS TIME. OTHER
ISSUE FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF LOW. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
BUT LOOKING FOR IT TO BE CONCENTRATED IN N NY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAW VALL. WILL ADJUST WIND GRIDS TO SHOW INCR WINDY COND THERE.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NITE-THUR)...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF HUDSONS BAY WILL LIFT NORTH SUN
NITE/MON...ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVEMENT IN WX CONDITIONS SUN NITE.
CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE DECREASNG SUN NITE (HAVE CONT'D WITH SLITE CHC
SHWRS) AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE RESPITE
FROM UNSETTLED WX WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER. SFC RIDGE MOVES ACRS AREA
EARLY MONDAY...BUT NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPRCH FROM OH VLY
MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT OF PCPN MON PM/NITE. COOL ENOUGH ALOFT
TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER NRN ZONES...BUT BLYR TEMPS LIKELY TO BE TOO
WARM...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED RAIN SHWRS ATTM. LOW EXITS EAST COAST
TUES...AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM NORTH OF
THE GRTLKS. HAVE LEFT IN A LOW CHC OF SHWRS FOR TUES/WED...ALTHO 12Z
GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE IMPROVEMENT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
RUNS...SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE TUE THRU THURS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPS NOT FAR FROM CLIMO DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
WITH TIME. CHC SHWRS AFTER ABOUT 02Z. CIGS/VSNYS LOWERING TO MVFR
RANGE AFTER SHWRS END (BY AROUND 08Z) WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
KMPV BY 09Z. VSBYS WILL BECOME VFR MID MORNING FRIDAY...BUT CIGS
ONLY EXPECTED IN 1000 TO 3000 FT RANGE.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS

















   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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