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On Mon, 20 Dec 2004 21:11:00 -0500, Skip King
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>jeez, Scott, just getting around to that one?  It's been telegraphed for
>about 4 days now.

Yeah.  I've spent wayyy too much time on the possible east coast storm
that didn't pan out.  There was an area of 4-8" snowfall last night and
today from central Long Island up through central CT into central MA and
then northwest from there into southern NH.

>Don't overstate, though.  And the medium range stuff is probably
>overdone.  GFS predicts another warmup early week following - don't buy
>it.

I don't think I'm overstating anything.  Its not going to be pretty.
Also, the cold shot will follow this storm and there will be a good chance
of snowfall in the deep south.  And it will not be able to come up the
coast.  It can graze New England but there really isn't a way this can
become a nor'easter.  Right now it looks like there is a classic postive
NAO, and I do not see how the northern stream would be able to phase with
the subtropical jet.  So then after that, the GFS is a little overboard
with the warm up.  My current thinking is that yes, it will become mild,
but seasonably mild.  The European is showing a pool of very cold air
sitting just north of the Canadian boarder in days 8-10.  While it might
become seasonably mild in the northeast (temps 30-40), with that large
pool sitting just across the boarder it won't be able to get too
warm...and any storm that forms could tap that if it needs to and we might
have some surprises.

The pattern will relax for a couple weeks though...and then late January-
March is when all lleh breaks loose.

-Scott

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