Expires:200501240224;;560721
FPUS51 KBTV 231133
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2005
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-240224-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
624 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2005
UPDATED
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. WINDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS MORNING. BITTERLY COLD WITH
HIGHS AROUND 5 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30
PERCENT. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 15.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
NOT AS COLD. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS AROUND
10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW. CHANCE
OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 15 TO 20. CHANCE OF
SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND ZERO. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND ZERO.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 15 TO 20.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
$$
REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
_________________________________________________________________
FXUS61 KBTV 231148 CCA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2005
...CORRECTED TO REMOVE HIGHLIGHTS IN WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION OF
AFD...
...UPDATING FCST TO REMOVE HIGHLIGHTS ACRS ENTIRE FA...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR FA
THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SFC LOW PRES
NEAR THE BENCHMARK MOVES AWAY FROM OUR CWA. BUOY DATA SHOWS SFC LOW
PRES AT 986MB WITH GREATEST PRES FALLS 100-200 MILES EAST OF CAPE
COD ATTM. OTHERWISE...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS REPORT 8 TO
14 INCHES ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM
ESSEX COUNTY NY TO ADDISON TO ORANGE COUNTIES VT. MEANWHILE...A
GENERAL 2 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL OCCURRED ACRS CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE SLV AND
EXTREME NORTHERN VT. SOME REPORTS INCLUDED...SPRINGFIELD IN WINDSOR
COUNTY 12 INCHES...CAVENDISH 9 INCHES...LUDLOW 11 INCHES...BELLOW
FALLS 8 INCHES...MONTPELIER 3"...AND WORCESTER 2.5".
EXPECT NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILL READINGS.
&&
TABER
...PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS CENTRAL PA
ATTM WITH STRONG 5H VORT ROUNDING TROF BASE AND ENHANCING SFC LOW
PRES OFF THE NJ COASTLINE. 3HR PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS 989MB SFC LOW
TRACKING NE TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 09Z AND EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z
SUNDAY. IR SAT SHOWS SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS AND CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL FG AND
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZN ON NW SIDE OF ULVL LOW.
RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACRS
OUR FA. TRENDS SHOW DEVELOPING BAND OF MODERATE SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY TO RUTLAND TO WINDSOR COUNTY ATTM WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT. DBZ RETURNS OF 20 TO 25 HAVE RESULTED IN SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SPOTTERS/LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT 6 TO
10 INCHES ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ACRS
CENTRAL VT AND A INCH OR SO ALONG THE BORDER. OBSERVER FROM CHESTER
VT REPORTED 7 INCHES OF SNOW 1015 PM THIS EVENING AND 9 INCHES AT
CAVENDISH AT 230 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS CENTRAL PA MOVES OFF THE SNE COASTLINE BY 00Z
MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES NE TOWARD THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOWS STRONG 7H FG FORCING...ALONG WITH
GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
ALSO...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS WL BE 7H
DEFORMATION ZN AND STRONG ULVL DIVERGENCE...PROVIDED BY 25H JET. WL
CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS THE DACKS...OCCASIONAL WORDING OVER
CENTRAL VT INCLUDING THE CPV...AND CAT POPS OVER SOUTHERN VT. FEEL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO ACRS THE DACKS AND
CENTRAL VT...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SOME ENHANCEMENT WL OCCUR ACRS THE EASTERN CPV
ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE ZNS ON NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW AND PLENTY OF LLVL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...BUFKIT SFC
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 20 TO 30 MPH AT BTV TODAY...WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ALONG WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS. MTN TOPS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH TODAY. THIS INFO WL BE ADDED TO THE
WSW PRODUCTS ACRS OUR FA. FEEL PRECIP SHOULD END ACRS EASTERN FA BY
18Z TODAY AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY
WINDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -20C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY WITH MAYBE 10F NEAR VSF ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRES CONTS TO TRACK EAST AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND
LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WL HELP CLR THE SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CLRING SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING WL CUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACRS FA TONIGHT.
MONDAY...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. GIVEN...PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING
DATA WL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA AND MENTION
CHC POPS MOST LOCATIONS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
TO -14C ACRS OUR FA...WHICH WL SUPPORT TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS WITH WEAK SFC COLD FRNT MOVING ACRS OUR FA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUES. EXPECT LLVL CAA TO DEVELOP ON TUES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW.
HOWEVER...1000-850MB MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA ON WEDS WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SNOW. SYSTEM WL BE A QUICK MOVER
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING A BIG SNOWFALL ATTM.
TEMPS WL SLOWLY MODIFY BY WEEKS END WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR TO OCNL LIFR VSBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THRU
12Z...WITH CIGS MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR 12Z-18Z ACROSS
MOST OF AREA...BUT VSBYS WILL BE IMPROVING AS SNOW TAPERS OFF
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SNOW TO END BY AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT KBTV
WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN
VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES ALL SITES DUE BLSN. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
DURING PM/EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CLRNG SKIES ALL LOCATIONS BY AROUND
20Z...EXCEPT FOR KBTV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST TILL AROUND 00Z.
DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLR AFT 00Z.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS
FXUS61 KBTV 231124 AAA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
625 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2005
...UPDATING FCST TO REMOVE HIGHLIGHTS ACRS ENTIRE FA...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR FA
THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SFC LOW PRES
NEAR THE BENCHMARK MOVES AWAY FROM OUR CWA. BUOY DATA SHOWS SFC LOW
PRES AT 986MB WITH GREATEST PRES FALLS 100-200 MILES EAST OF CAPE
COD ATTM. OTHERWISE...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS REPORT 8 TO
14 INCHES ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM
ESSEX COUNTY NY TO ADDISON TO ORANGE COUNTIES VT. MEANWHILE...A
GENERAL 2 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL OCCURRED ACRS CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE SLV AND
EXTREME NORTHERN VT. SOME REPORTS INCLUDED...SPRINGFIELD IN WINDSOR
COUNTY 12 INCHES...CAVENDISH 9 INCHES...LUDLOW 11 INCHES...BELLOW
FALLS 8 INCHES...MONTPELIER 3"...AND WORCESTER 2.5".
EXPECT NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILL READINGS.
&&
TABER
...PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS CENTRAL PA
ATTM WITH STRONG 5H VORT ROUNDING TROF BASE AND ENHANCING SFC LOW
PRES OFF THE NJ COASTLINE. 3HR PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS 989MB SFC LOW
TRACKING NE TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 09Z AND EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z
SUNDAY. IR SAT SHOWS SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS AND CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL FG AND
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZN ON NW SIDE OF ULVL LOW.
RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACRS
OUR FA. TRENDS SHOW DEVELOPING BAND OF MODERATE SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY TO RUTLAND TO WINDSOR COUNTY ATTM WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT. DBZ RETURNS OF 20 TO 25 HAVE RESULTED IN SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SPOTTERS/LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT 6 TO
10 INCHES ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ACRS
CENTRAL VT AND A INCH OR SO ALONG THE BORDER. OBSERVER FROM CHESTER
VT REPORTED 7 INCHES OF SNOW 1015 PM THIS EVENING AND 9 INCHES AT
CAVENDISH AT 230 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS CENTRAL PA MOVES OFF THE SNE COASTLINE BY 00Z
MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES NE TOWARD THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOWS STRONG 7H FG FORCING...ALONG WITH
GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
ALSO...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS WL BE 7H
DEFORMATION ZN AND STRONG ULVL DIVERGENCE...PROVIDED BY 25H JET. WL
CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS THE DACKS...OCCASIONAL WORDING OVER
CENTRAL VT INCLUDING THE CPV...AND CAT POPS OVER SOUTHERN VT. FEEL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO ACRS THE DACKS AND
CENTRAL VT...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SOME ENHANCEMENT WL OCCUR ACRS THE EASTERN CPV
ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE ZNS ON NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW AND PLENTY OF LLVL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...BUFKIT SFC
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 20 TO 30 MPH AT BTV TODAY...WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ALONG WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS. MTN TOPS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH TODAY. THIS INFO WL BE ADDED TO THE
WSW PRODUCTS ACRS OUR FA. FEEL PRECIP SHOULD END ACRS EASTERN FA BY
18Z TODAY AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY
WINDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -20C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY WITH MAYBE 10F NEAR VSF ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRES CONTS TO TRACK EAST AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND
LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WL HELP CLR THE SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CLRING SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING WL CUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACRS FA TONIGHT.
MONDAY...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. GIVEN...PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING
DATA WL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA AND MENTION
CHC POPS MOST LOCATIONS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
TO -14C ACRS OUR FA...WHICH WL SUPPORT TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS WITH WEAK SFC COLD FRNT MOVING ACRS OUR FA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUES. EXPECT LLVL CAA TO DEVELOP ON TUES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW.
HOWEVER...1000-850MB MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA ON WEDS WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SNOW. SYSTEM WL BE A QUICK MOVER
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING A BIG SNOWFALL ATTM.
TEMPS WL SLOWLY MODIFY BY WEEKS END WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR TO OCNL LIFR VSBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THRU
12Z...WITH CIGS MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR 12Z-18Z ACROSS
MOST OF AREA...BUT VSBYS WILL BE IMPROVING AS SNOW TAPERS OFF
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SNOW TO END BY AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT KBTV
WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN
VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES ALL SITES DUE BLSN. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
DURING PM/EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CLRNG SKIES ALL LOCATIONS BY AROUND
20Z...EXCEPT FOR KBTV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST TILL AROUND 00Z.
DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLR AFT 00Z.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ008>012-018-019.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ005>007-017.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ034-035.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS
FXUS61 KBTV 231123 AAA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
625 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2005
...UPDATING FCST TO REMOVE HIGHLIGHTS ACRS ENTIRE FA...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR FA
THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SFC LOW PRES
NEAR THE BENCHMARK MOVES AWAY FROM OUR CWA. BUOY DATA SHOWS SFC LOW
PRES AT 986MB WITH GREATEST PRES FALLS 100-200 MILES EAST OF CAPE
COD ATTM. OTHERWISE...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS REPORT 8 TO
14 INCHES ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM
ESSEX COUNTY NY TO ADDISON TO ORANGE COUNTIES VT. MEANWHILE...A
GENERAL 2 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL OCCURRED ACRS CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE SLV AND
EXTREME NORTHERN VT. SOME REPORTS INCLUDED...SPRINGFIELD IN WINDSOR
COUNTY 12 INCHES...CAVENDISH 9 INCHES...LUDLOW 11 INCHES...BELLOW
FALLS 8 INCHES...MONTPELIER 3"...AND WORCESTER 2.5".
EXPECT NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILL READINGS.
&&
TABER
...PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS CENTRAL PA
ATTM WITH STRONG 5H VORT ROUNDING TROF BASE AND ENHANCING SFC LOW
PRES OFF THE NJ COASTLINE. 3HR PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS 989MB SFC LOW
TRACKING NE TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 09Z AND EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z
SUNDAY. IR SAT SHOWS SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS AND CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL FG AND
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZN ON NW SIDE OF ULVL LOW.
RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACRS
OUR FA. TRENDS SHOW DEVELOPING BAND OF MODERATE SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY TO RUTLAND TO WINDSOR COUNTY ATTM WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT. DBZ RETURNS OF 20 TO 25 HAVE RESULTED IN SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SPOTTERS/LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT 6 TO
10 INCHES ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ACRS
CENTRAL VT AND A INCH OR SO ALONG THE BORDER. OBSERVER FROM CHESTER
VT REPORTED 7 INCHES OF SNOW 1015 PM THIS EVENING AND 9 INCHES AT
CAVENDISH AT 230 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS CENTRAL PA MOVES OFF THE SNE COASTLINE BY 00Z
MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES NE TOWARD THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOWS STRONG 7H FG FORCING...ALONG WITH
GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
ALSO...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS WL BE 7H
DEFORMATION ZN AND STRONG ULVL DIVERGENCE...PROVIDED BY 25H JET. WL
CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS THE DACKS...OCCASIONAL WORDING OVER
CENTRAL VT INCLUDING THE CPV...AND CAT POPS OVER SOUTHERN VT. FEEL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO ACRS THE DACKS AND
CENTRAL VT...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SOME ENHANCEMENT WL OCCUR ACRS THE EASTERN CPV
ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE ZNS ON NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW AND PLENTY OF LLVL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...BUFKIT SFC
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 20 TO 30 MPH AT BTV TODAY...WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ALONG WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS. MTN TOPS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH TODAY. THIS INFO WL BE ADDED TO THE
WSW PRODUCTS ACRS OUR FA. FEEL PRECIP SHOULD END ACRS EASTERN FA BY
18Z TODAY AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY
WINDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -20C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY WITH MAYBE 10F NEAR VSF ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRES CONTS TO TRACK EAST AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND
LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WL HELP CLR THE SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CLRING SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING WL CUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACRS FA TONIGHT.
MONDAY...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. GIVEN...PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING
DATA WL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA AND MENTION
CHC POPS MOST LOCATIONS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
TO -14C ACRS OUR FA...WHICH WL SUPPORT TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS WITH WEAK SFC COLD FRNT MOVING ACRS OUR FA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUES. EXPECT LLVL CAA TO DEVELOP ON TUES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW.
HOWEVER...1000-850MB MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA ON WEDS WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SNOW. SYSTEM WL BE A QUICK MOVER
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING A BIG SNOWFALL ATTM.
TEMPS WL SLOWLY MODIFY BY WEEKS END WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR TO OCNL LIFR VSBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THRU
12Z...WITH CIGS MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR 12Z-18Z ACROSS
MOST OF AREA...BUT VSBYS WILL BE IMPROVING AS SNOW TAPERS OFF
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SNOW TO END BY AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT KBTV
WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN
VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES ALL SITES DUE BLSN. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
DURING PM/EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CLRNG SKIES ALL LOCATIONS BY AROUND
20Z...EXCEPT FOR KBTV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST TILL AROUND 00Z.
DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLR AFT 00Z.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ008>012-018-019.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ005>007-017.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ034-035.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS
FXUS61 KBTV 230732
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2005
...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTS ACRS SNE AND MOST OF OUR FA THIS
MORNING...
WL CONT WITH CRNT WARNING/ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FOR THIS PACKAGE
AND EXPECT RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES TO RECEIVE STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO
16 INCHES BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE....ACRS CENTRAL VT STORM
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE AND AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE
BORDER. ALSO...NORTHERLY WINDS BTWN 10 AND 20 MPH HAS CREATED AREAS
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL
READINGS.
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS CENTRAL PA
ATTM WITH STRONG 5H VORT ROUNDING TROF BASE AND ENHANCING SFC LOW
PRES OFF THE NJ COASTLINE. 3HR PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS 989MB SFC LOW
TRACKING NE TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 09Z AND EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z
SUNDAY. IR SAT SHOWS SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS AND CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL FG AND
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZN ON NW SIDE OF ULVL LOW.
RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACRS
OUR FA. TRENDS SHOW DEVELOPING BAND OF MODERATE SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY TO RUTLAND TO WINDSOR COUNTY ATTM WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT. DBZ RETURNS OF 20 TO 25 HAVE RESULTED IN SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SPOTTERS/LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT 6 TO
10 INCHES ACRS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ACRS
CENTRAL VT AND A INCH OR SO ALONG THE BORDER. OBSERVER FROM CHESTER
VT REPORTED 7 INCHES OF SNOW 1015 PM THIS EVENING AND 9 INCHES AT
CAVENDISH AT 230 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS CENTRAL PA MOVES OFF THE SNE COASTLINE BY 00Z
MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES NE TOWARD THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOWS STRONG 7H FG FORCING...ALONG WITH
GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
ALSO...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS WL BE 7H
DEFORMATION ZN AND STRONG ULVL DIVERGENCE...PROVIDED BY 25H JET. WL
CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS THE DACKS...OCCASIONAL WORDING OVER
CENTRAL VT INCLUDING THE CPV...AND CAT POPS OVER SOUTHERN VT. FEEL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO ACRS THE DACKS AND
CENTRAL VT...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SOME ENHANCEMENT WL OCCUR ACRS THE EASTERN CPV
ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE ZNS ON NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW AND PLENTY OF LLVL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...BUFKIT SFC
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 20 TO 30 MPH AT BTV TODAY...WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ALONG WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS. MTN TOPS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH TODAY. THIS INFO WL BE ADDED TO THE
WSW PRODUCTS ACRS OUR FA. FEEL PRECIP SHOULD END ACRS EASTERN FA BY
18Z TODAY AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY
WINDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -20C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY WITH MAYBE 10F NEAR VSF ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRES CONTS TO TRACK EAST AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND
LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WL HELP CLR THE SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CLRING SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING WL CUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACRS FA TONIGHT.
MONDAY...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. GIVEN...PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING
DATA WL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA AND MENTION
CHC POPS MOST LOCATIONS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
TO -14C ACRS OUR FA...WHICH WL SUPPORT TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS WITH WEAK SFC COLD FRNT MOVING ACRS OUR FA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUES. EXPECT LLVL CAA TO DEVELOP ON TUES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW.
HOWEVER...1000-850MB MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA ON WEDS WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SNOW. SYSTEM WL BE A QUICK MOVER
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING A BIG SNOWFALL ATTM.
TEMPS WL SLOWLY MODIFY BY WEEKS END WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR TO OCNL LIFR VSBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THRU
12Z...WITH CIGS MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR 12Z-18Z ACROSS
MOST OF AREA...BUT VSBYS WILL BE IMPROVING AS SNOW TAPERS OFF
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SNOW TO END BY AROUND 15Z...EXCEPT KBTV
WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN
VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES ALL SITES DUE BLSN. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
DURING PM/EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CLRNG SKIES ALL LOCATIONS BY AROUND
20Z...EXCEPT FOR KBTV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST TILL AROUND 00Z.
DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLR AFT 00Z.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ008>012-018-019.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ005>007-017.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ034-035.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS
FXUS61 KBTV 230223 AAB
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE #2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
920 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2005
.LATEST UPDATED DISCUSSION...
LATEST (02Z) LOOK AT RDR SHWS -SN ACRS ALL OF FA BUT LGT/INTERMITTENT
ALG CNDN BDR. IT HAS TAKEN AWHILE...BUT IT APPEARS MID-LVL
DEFORMATION ZONE ACRS CENT NY WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT N INTO ADRNDKS
AND VT AND THIS TREND SHLD CONT FOR NXT 2-3HRS BFR SHFTG SE WITH LWR
CT RVR VLY EVENTUAL JACKPOT WINNER. CRNT SNOWFALL AMTS RANGE FROM
DUST TO INCH IN NRN 1/3 WITH 2-4 INCHES IN SRN 1/3 FA.
I'M NERVOUS THAT THE RPDLY DVLPG COASTAL WL FOCUS THE FGEN IN LLVLS
ACRS SNE AND THE DVLPG CLOSED LOW WL TAPER OFF MID-LVL FGEN ACRS FA
INTO LWR CT RVR VLY INTO NH AND THAT OUR NUMBERS MAY BE A TAD HIGH.
HWVR...PRVS FCSTR EXPANDED RANGES VRY WELL IN ZONES AND WITH THIS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS TO CRNT FCST ATTM. STL LOOKING
TO DIGEST NEW MDL DATA AND IF SOMETHING STRIKING WL TRY TO MAKE CHGS
PRIOR TO 11 PM NEWSCASTS.
SLW
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION (640 PM)...
SLGT LULL IN ACTVTY ACRS MUCH OF FA AS INITIAL VORT LOBE MOISTENED
ATMOSPHERE BUT MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS FM INITIAL MIDWEST
SYSTEM ACRS CAPITAL DISTRICT-MOHAWK RVR VLY-SRN ADRNDKS WL CONT TO
MV NE THRU 03Z THEN DRIFT E THEN SE AS H5 LOW CLOSES AND MID-LVL
DEFORMATION ZONES TRANSITION INTO MESOSCALE BANDING LLVL FGEN
GENERATED BY COASTAL. NO CHGS TO ONGOING FCST BUT ONLY A TRACE
ALD CNDN BDR IS PSBL.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...
IFR CONDS THRU 06Z ACRS MUCH OF TAF SITES WITH IMPROVEMENT AFT 06Z.
NNW WNDS ACRS LAKE CHAMPLAIN DVLPG LLVL CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY KEEP
-SN WITH IFR CONDS PSBL IN VCNTY OF KBTV THRU 15Z BUT SPOT FCST HAS
MVFR CONDS. IT WL BECOME WINDY WITH BLSN BEING A PRBLM THRU SUN
AFTN. IFR CONDS WITH +SN LKLY THRU 09Z AT NON-TAF SITE AIRPORTS LIKE
KVSF AND KRUT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM TO FORM...AND MOVE...TO THE SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG TONITE...THEN
TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG ON SUN. STILL GOING WITH THE NAM ON ITS
HANDLING OF THIS SYS. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON SUN NITE. WK
SFC TROF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON
MON NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON SUN.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MON NITE)...
H85 CAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA FOR TONITE THRU SUN NITE...WITH WK WAA
ON MON/MON NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE
FA ON MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON SUN...
WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA LATER ON MON AND INTO MON NITE.
MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON SUN...WITH SOME
MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON MON. NAM/NGM AND REGIONAL GPS IPW SITES
SHOW VALUES OF AOB 0.25" ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. WWE SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 8" ACRS THE FA ON DAY 1. NAM/NGM QPF
THRU 18Z SUN LOOKS TO BE AOB 0.65" ACRS THE FA. BEST LOW-LVL FGEN
STILL LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE ACRS SRN VT...OR FURTHER SOUTH...TONITE...
WHERE SOME OCNL +SN SHOULD OCCUR. STILL FEEL THAT THE LOW AVAILABLE
PW VALUES WILL PROLLY BE OVERCOME BY HIGHER FLUFF FACTOR. WITH THIS
FLUFF FACTOR...A MAX OF AROUND A FOOT OR SO OF SN IS POSSIBLE ACRS
SRN VT FROM THIS STORM.
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN MOVING IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW ATTM.
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND SLIGHTLY WIDEN
THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACRS THE WARNING AREAS TO ACCOUNT
FOR VARIABLE SN AMTS IN ANY BANDING THAT OCCURS THERE. HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE FA TONITE...AND HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM NW
(NONE) TO SE (CATEGORICAL) FOR EARLY ON SUN FOR ANY LINGERING SN
THEN. THE GOING DRY WX FCST FOR SUN NITE LOOKS GOOD...AS DOES THE LOW
CHC POPS FOR ANY -SHSN ON MON AFTERNOON AND MON NITE. THIS NEXT SYS
LOOKS PRETTY WK ATTM. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND
BLO ZERO FOR TONITE AND SUN NITE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WORRY
ABOUT SOME KIND OF WIND CHILL HEADLINE...BUT WE/LL LEAVE THAT FOR
AFTER THE SN ENDS.
.HYDROLOGY...
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON EHVV1 (EAST BRANCH OF THE
PASSUMPSIC RIVER)...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS. CAN/T IMAGINE THAT THE RIVER ISN/T FROZEN WAY UP THERE THOUGH.
WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 4 PM.
MURRAY
.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
NCEP PREFERENCE WAS TO FOLLOW FASTER ECMWF SOLN REGARDING CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE RGN ARND MIDWEEK. GFS SLOWER WITH THE MAIN CHC
OF SNOW WED NGT/THU...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SN FOR TUE NGT/WED WITH
STG HI BUILDING IN FOR THU-SAT. GFS ALSO ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC HI MOVING INTO THE RGN. TRENDED TOWARD
ECMWF SOLN...SO INDCTD CHC SNOW TUE NGT/WED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MOD ACCUM AS CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TRACK S OF RGN. CHC OF LINGERING
SNW SHOWERS WED NGT BHND DEPARTING DEPARTING SYS...THEN FAIR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THU-SAT AS STG SFC HI BUILDS IN. LOWERED MEX TEMPS
SVRL DEGREES FOR THU/FRI WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ARCTIC HI IN
CONTROL.
.AVIATION...
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFT 22Z AS SNOW OVERSPREADS OVER THE
RGN. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY
00Z. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFT 06Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO MVFR 06-09Z AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS S OF FA. EXPECT BKN CIGS ARND
2500FT AFT 12Z...WITH VFR AND SCT CLDS AT MSS BY 14Z. N/NE WINDS
WILL CONT TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS LIKELY AFT 06Z
AS CSTL STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS.
KJC
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ008>012-018-019.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ005>007-017.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ034-035.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
FXUS61 KBTV 222343 AAA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION/CRNT TRENDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2005
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SLGT LULL IN ACTVTY ACRS MUCH OF FA AS INITIAL VORT LOBE MOISTENED
ATMOSPHERE BUT MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS FM INITIAL MIDWEST
SYSTEM ACRS CAPITAL DISTRICT-MOHAWK RVR VLY-SRN ADRNDKS WL CONT TO
MV NE THRU 03Z THEN DRIFT E THEN SE AS H5 LOW CLOSES AND MID-LVL
DEFORMATION ZONES TRANSITION INTO MESOSCALE BANDING LLVL FGEN
GENERATED BY COASTAL. NO CHGS TO ONGOING FCST BUT ONLY A TRACE
ALD CNDN BDR IS PSBL.
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...
IFR CONDS THRU 06Z ACRS MUCH OF TAF SITES WITH IMPROVEMENT AFT 06Z.
NNW WNDS ACRS LAKE CHAMPLAIN DVLPG LLVL CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY KEEP
-SN WITH IFR CONDS PSBL IN VCNTY OF KBTV THRU 15Z BUT SPOT FCST HAS
MVFR CONDS. IT WL BECOME WINDY WITH BLSN BEING A PRBLM THRU SUN
AFTN. IFR CONDS WITH +SN LKLY THRU 09Z AT NON-TAF SITE AIRPORTS LIKE
KVSF AND KRUT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM TO FORM...AND MOVE...TO THE SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG TONITE...THEN
TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG ON SUN. STILL GOING WITH THE NAM ON ITS
HANDLING OF THIS SYS. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON SUN NITE. WK
SFC TROF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON
MON NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON SUN.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MON NITE)...
H85 CAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA FOR TONITE THRU SUN NITE...WITH WK WAA
ON MON/MON NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE
FA ON MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON SUN...
WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA LATER ON MON AND INTO MON NITE.
MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON SUN...WITH SOME
MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON MON. NAM/NGM AND REGIONAL GPS IPW SITES
SHOW VALUES OF AOB 0.25" ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. WWE SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 8" ACRS THE FA ON DAY 1. NAM/NGM QPF
THRU 18Z SUN LOOKS TO BE AOB 0.65" ACRS THE FA. BEST LOW-LVL FGEN
STILL LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE ACRS SRN VT...OR FURTHER SOUTH...TONITE...
WHERE SOME OCNL +SN SHOULD OCCUR. STILL FEEL THAT THE LOW AVAILABLE
PW VALUES WILL PROLLY BE OVERCOME BY HIGHER FLUFF FACTOR. WITH THIS
FLUFF FACTOR...A MAX OF AROUND A FOOT OR SO OF SN IS POSSIBLE ACRS
SRN VT FROM THIS STORM.
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN MOVING IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW ATTM.
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND SLIGHTLY WIDEN
THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACRS THE WARNING AREAS TO ACCOUNT
FOR VARIABLE SN AMTS IN ANY BANDING THAT OCCURS THERE. HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE FA TONITE...AND HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM NW
(NONE) TO SE (CATEGORICAL) FOR EARLY ON SUN FOR ANY LINGERING SN
THEN. THE GOING DRY WX FCST FOR SUN NITE LOOKS GOOD...AS DOES THE LOW
CHC POPS FOR ANY -SHSN ON MON AFTERNOON AND MON NITE. THIS NEXT SYS
LOOKS PRETTY WK ATTM. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND
BLO ZERO FOR TONITE AND SUN NITE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WORRY
ABOUT SOME KIND OF WIND CHILL HEADLINE...BUT WE/LL LEAVE THAT FOR
AFTER THE SN ENDS.
.HYDROLOGY...
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON EHVV1 (EAST BRANCH OF THE
PASSUMPSIC RIVER)...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS. CAN/T IMAGINE THAT THE RIVER ISN/T FROZEN WAY UP THERE THOUGH.
WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 4 PM.
MURRAY
.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
NCEP PREFERENCE WAS TO FOLLOW FASTER ECMWF SOLN REGARDING CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE RGN ARND MIDWEEK. GFS SLOWER WITH THE MAIN CHC
OF SNOW WED NGT/THU...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SN FOR TUE NGT/WED WITH
STG HI BUILDING IN FOR THU-SAT. GFS ALSO ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC HI MOVING INTO THE RGN. TRENDED TOWARD
ECMWF SOLN...SO INDCTD CHC SNOW TUE NGT/WED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MOD ACCUM AS CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TRACK S OF RGN. CHC OF LINGERING
SNW SHOWERS WED NGT BHND DEPARTING DEPARTING SYS...THEN FAIR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THU-SAT AS STG SFC HI BUILDS IN. LOWERED MEX TEMPS
SVRL DEGREES FOR THU/FRI WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ARCTIC HI IN
CONTROL.
.AVIATION...
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFT 22Z AS SNOW OVERSPREADS OVER THE
RGN. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY
00Z. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFT 06Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO MVFR 06-09Z AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS S OF FA. EXPECT BKN CIGS ARND
2500FT AFT 12Z...WITH VFR AND SCT CLDS AT MSS BY 14Z. N/NE WINDS
WILL CONT TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS LIKELY AFT 06Z
AS CSTL STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS.
KJC
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ008>012-018-019.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ005>007-017.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ034-035.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
FXUS61 KBTV 222046
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2005
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM TO FORM...AND MOVE...TO THE SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG TONITE...THEN
TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG ON SUN. STILL GOING WITH THE NAM ON ITS
HANDLING OF THIS SYS. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON SUN NITE. WK
SFC TROF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS SRN CANADA ON MON AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON
MON NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON SUN.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MON NITE)...
H85 CAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA FOR TONITE THRU SUN NITE...WITH WK WAA
ON MON/MON NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE
FA ON MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON SUN...
WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA LATER ON MON AND INTO MON NITE.
MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON SUN...WITH SOME
MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON MON. NAM/NGM AND REGIONAL GPS IPW SITES
SHOW VALUES OF AOB 0.25" ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. WWE SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 8" ACRS THE FA ON DAY 1. NAM/NGM QPF
THRU 18Z SUN LOOKS TO BE AOB 0.65" ACRS THE FA. BEST LOW-LVL FGEN
STILL LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE ACRS SRN VT...OR FURTHER SOUTH...TONITE...
WHERE SOME OCNL +SN SHOULD OCCUR. STILL FEEL THAT THE LOW AVAILABLE
PW VALUES WILL PROLLY BE OVERCOME BY HIGHER FLUFF FACTOR. WITH THIS
FLUFF FACTOR...A MAX OF AROUND A FOOT OR SO OF SN IS POSSIBLE ACRS
SRN VT FROM THIS STORM.
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN MOVING IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW ATTM.
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND SLIGHTLY WIDEN
THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACRS THE WARNING AREAS TO ACCOUNT
FOR VARIABLE SN AMTS IN ANY BANDING THAT OCCURS THERE. HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE FA TONITE...AND HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM NW
(NONE) TO SE (CATEGORICAL) FOR EARLY ON SUN FOR ANY LINGERING SN
THEN. THE GOING DRY WX FCST FOR SUN NITE LOOKS GOOD...AS DOES THE LOW
CHC POPS FOR ANY -SHSN ON MON AFTERNOON AND MON NITE. THIS NEXT SYS
LOOKS PRETTY WK ATTM. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND
BLO ZERO FOR TONITE AND SUN NITE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WORRY
ABOUT SOME KIND OF WIND CHILL HEADLINE...BUT WE/LL LEAVE THAT FOR
AFTER THE SN ENDS.
.HYDROLOGY...
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON EHVV1 (EAST BRANCH OF THE
PASSUMPSIC RIVER)...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS. CAN/T IMAGINE THAT THE RIVER ISN/T FROZEN WAY UP THERE THOUGH.
WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 4 PM.
MURRAY
.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
NCEP PREFERENCE WAS TO FOLLOW FASTER ECMWF SOLN REGARDING CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE RGN ARND MIDWEEK. GFS SLOWER WITH THE MAIN CHC
OF SNOW WED NGT/THU...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SN FOR TUE NGT/WED WITH
STG HI BUILDING IN FOR THU-SAT. GFS ALSO ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC HI MOVING INTO THE RGN. TRENDED TOWARD
ECMWF SOLN...SO INDCTD CHC SNOW TUE NGT/WED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MOD ACCUM AS CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TRACK S OF RGN. CHC OF LINGERING
SNW SHOWERS WED NGT BHND DEPARTING DEPARTING SYS...THEN FAIR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THU-SAT AS STG SFC HI BUILDS IN. LOWERED MEX TEMPS
SVRL DEGREES FOR THU/FRI WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ARCTIC HI IN
CONTROL.
.AVIATION...
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFT 22Z AS SNOW OVERSPREADS OVER THE
RGN. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY
00Z. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFT 06Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO MVFR 06-09Z AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS S OF FA. EXPECT BKN CIGS ARND
2500FT AFT 12Z...WITH VFR AND SCT CLDS AT MSS BY 14Z. N/NE WINDS
WILL CONT TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS LIKELY AFT 06Z
AS CSTL STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS.
KJC
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ008>012-018-019.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN VTZ005>007-017.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ034-035.
...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY SUN NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
Network)
References
1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html
699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTSUNNY 68 43 40 W10G16 30.00S
MONTPELIER PTSUNNY 67 44 43 SW9 30.05S
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 67 46 47 VRB6 30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A 70 46 42 VRB7 29.98F
RUTLAND CLOUDY 64 45 48 SW9 30.05S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 71 47 42 W9 30.04F
BENNINGTON PTSUNNY 68 48 48 VRB7 30.05F
______KEY______
VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX - HEAT INDEX
$$
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