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FPUS51 KBTV 120856
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-122200-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
355 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM EST SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SNOW...SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION 5 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 30. WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 8 TO 16 INCHES. LOWS AROUND
20. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 120852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2005

BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONT TO RIDE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS FOR
NOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM SYS TO ESE OF SRN NEW ENG TODAY. WK SFC HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS
THE FA ON SUN NITE AND MON...AS ANOTHER WK STORM SYS MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LKS REGION. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU SUN NITE.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MON)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MON. SOME LOW-LVL
MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT
TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY THRU SUN...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR LINGERING
ACRS THE FA ON SUN NITE AND MON. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS
THE FA ON SUN AFTERNOON. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA BY
TODAY AND TONITE. GOOD H7-85 FGEN TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE MUCH OF THE
FA TODAY AND ACRS VT TONITE. BEST MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE MOSTLY
THE ERN FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH SOME MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON
SUN. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.3-0.4" BASED ON LATEST
REGIONAL GPS IPW SITES AND 00Z NAM/NGM/GFS DATA. PW VALUES ACRS THE
FA LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.25" TONITE AND ON SUN. WWE SN GRAPHICS ACRS
THE FA SHOW BLW 8" ON DAY 1 AND AOB AN INCH ON DAY 3.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SN ACRS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN FA
ATTM. LATEST MODEL LIQUID QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR +SN
ACRS THE FA TO BE ACRS MUCH OF VT FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND INTO EARLY
TONITE...DUE TO A COMBO OF THE BEST FGEN AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
THEN. STILL EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF ANY +SN
BANDS...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW...
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER POPS FROM EAST (HIGHEST) TO WEST (LOWEST) FOR
TODAY AND TONITE. THE ST LAW VLY MAY NOT GET MUCH SIGNIFICANT SN THRU
THIS EVENT AT ALL. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD TO GO FOR NOW AND HAVE
JUST LOWERED EXPECTED SN AMTS A TAD (MOSTLY ACRS THE WRN ZONES). MAX
SN AMTS FOR THE ENTIRE STORM NOW LOOK TO BE AOB A FOOT.

T1MAX TEMPS ARE 30-35F TODAY. A FEW CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD
TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND THE LATEST MESONET DATA. NOT
MANY...IF ANY...CHANGES TO TEMP AND WIND GRIDS BEYOND TODAY.

CHC POPS FOR SUN STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD IDEA FOR ANY LINGERING SHSN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK INTO MAYBE HAVING THESE SHSN HANG ON A
BIT LONGER INTO SUN NITE.

.LONG TERM (MON NITE ONWARD)...
NO CHANGES TO OUR GOING FCST FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 4 AM.

MURRAY

.AVIATION...
SNOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM KSLK EAST
ACRS VT. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHWRS BY AROUND 20Z KMSS. THRU
20Z...EXPECT IFR TO OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS KMPV/KBTV AND MVFR TO OCNL
IFR AT KMSS/KSLK. SOME IMPROVEMENT AFT 20Z WITH MVFR TO OCNL IFR AT
KBTV/KMPV AND MVFR TO OCNL VFR AT KMSS/KSLK.

RJS

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU 2 AM SUN VTZ002>012-016>019
  ...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU 2 AM SUN VTZ001.
NY...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU 2 AM SUN NYZ028-031-034>035.
&&

$$





FXUS61 KBTV 120347 CCB
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2005

.UPDATED DISCUSSION (1045 PM)...
LATEST NAM AND JUST GOT A GOOD LOOK AT GFS AND TRENDS ARE A SLGTLY
FURTHER E TRACK. LOOKING AND COMPARING QPF FIELDS, ESPECIALLY THE
MORE GENEROUS GFS...MY FIRST THOUGHTS FOR THE 11 PM NEWSCAST METS
ARE LEANING TOWARD LWR-MID VALUES OF CRNT FCST RANGES.

I'LL LET MIDSHFT DIGEST ALL NEW MDL DATA TO MAKE ANY (IF ANY)
OFFICIAL CHGS.
&&

UPDATED DISCUSSION (930 PM)...
FIRST INITIAL WAA BAND...VRY LGT HAS MVD THRU WITH BITS...PIECES STL
WORKING ITS WAY ACRS FA. THE START OF THE 2ND WAVE IS EVIDENT VIA
RDR COMPOSITE AND IR SAT PIXS WITH COOLING CLD TOPS.

PRVS FCST AND DISC HAS A GUD HNDL ON THE CRNT PIX AND FEEL XCLNT
HNDL OF THE ENTIRE EVENT IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED BLO.

NO CHGS TO FCST.
&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00-24Z)...
VFR/MVFR CONDS THRU 06Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR...THEN IFR CONDS DUE TO
STEADY AND EVENTUALLY HVY SNOW DVLPS WITH GRST IMPACT FOR KSLK-KBTV-
KMPV BTWN 08Z-20Z W TO E. IN FACT...LIFR CONDS LKLY CUD BE LKLY DRG
THIS TIMEFRAME.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT FOR FA TNGT INTO SAT NGT.  KEPT
WARNINGS IN PLACE ACRS MOST OF VT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY WWD ACRS
ERN ADRNDCKS.  SREF SHOWING GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROB OF AT LEAST
0.5" QPF ACRS MCH OF VT SO THIS FITS WELL WITH CRNT WRNG AREA.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF CSTL STORM WITH MOIST SE
ATLANTIC INFLOW TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MSTR WWD ACRS FA. INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING WWD ACRS VT WL FOCUS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND BRING
HVY SNOWS TO MUCH OF VT.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SUN)...
WAA LIGHT SNOWS ASSOCD WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NWD ACRS FA.
BEST LIFT WL BE EXITING RGN THIS EVENING SO EXPECT LULL IN PCPN FOR
A GOOD PART OF TNGT BEFORE HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCD WITH SECONDARY STORM
MOVES IN LT TNGT.  ACCUM THRU THIS EVENING 2" OR LESS.

STG SHRTWV AND ASSOCD 140KT UPR LEVEL JET WL DIVE SE AND CARVE OUT
STRONGLY NEG TILTED TROF ACRS NE ON SAT.  MSAS ANALYS ALREADY
SHOWING GOOS PRES FALLS ALG NC CST AND CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE
OCEAN WELL E OF MID ATL CST.  CSTL STORM WL DVLP THIS EVNG MOVG TO
VCNTY ACK ARND 12Z SAT THEN WL EVENTUALLY TRANSFER ENERGY TO TRIPLE
PT LOW FTHR E.

HEAVIEST SNOWS WL OCCUR FROM LT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN AS VRY STG
850-700MB FGEN AND GOOD QG FORCING DVLPS ACRS FA.  LOCATION OF BEST
LIFT TARGETS MOST OF VT FOR HVIEST SNOWFALL WITH AMTS DECRG WWD.
BASED ON THESE SIGNALS WENT WITH GFS/NAM BLEND ON QPF BUT EDGED
CLOSER TO HIGHER GFS AMTS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN MSTR
INFLOW/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND FGEN.  STG MESO CONVECTIVE BANDING
SIGNALS PRESENT WITH XSCTNS SHOWING CSI/CI ABOVE STG FGEN LAYER SO
2"/HR SNOW RATES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM.

SNOW WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SAT EVNG AS BEST LIFT MOVES OUT BUT
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MSTR AXIS
AND CYC FLOW.  CONTD THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUN WITH E-W UPR TROF
AXIS ACRS RGN.

EXPECTED SNOW ACCUM THRU SAT EVNG 10-16" MCH OF ERN VT FROM GREEN
MTNS EWD BUT CONCERNED ABOUT LESSER AMTS IN UPR CT VLY DUE TO WHITE
MTN SHADOW WITH SE INFLOW SO CUT BACK ON ACCUM TO 8-12" IN THIS
RGN.  6-12" WRN VT...4-9" ERN NY DECRG TO 2" ST LAW VLY.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...
PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED THRU
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PINWHEELING S/WV
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ENERGY TRANSLATES INTO PERSISTENT -SW FOR THE
CWA...BUT MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP POPS IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS TIME FOR ALL -SW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION WED NGT THRU THURS...FINALLY
GIVING REGION A BREAK FROM PRECIP. MDL GUIDANCE WANTS TO HINT AT NEAR
40F FOR WED/THURS...BUT W/ NORTH FLOW IN ADVANCE OF HIGH ALONG WITH
LL MOISTURE REMAINING....CLDS WILL CLR OUT BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FOR NOW...AWAY FROM THE 40F MARK. MDLS FOR FRI HAVE NEXT LOW TO OUR
WEST ACROSS N NY. BASED ON TRACK IT LOOKS LIKE TO START AS -SW BUT
GO OVER TO POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
WARM AIR WORKS NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH ABV SCENARIO FOR
NOW W/ ~40 POP AND LET FUTURE RUNS TAKE ITS COURSE AND SEE IF TRACK
CHANGES.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WRNG TNGT THRU 2 AM EST SUNDAY VTZ002>012-016>019
     WINTER WX ADV TNGT THRU 2 AM EST SUNDAY VTZ001.
NY...WINTER WX ADV TNGT THRU 2 AM EST SUNDAY NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&

$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...SLW
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JN











FXUS61 KBTV 120326 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2005

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
FIRST INITIAL WAA BAND...VRY LGT HAS MVD THRU WITH BITS...PIECES STL
WORKING ITS WAY ACRS FA. THE START OF THE 2ND WAVE IS EVIDENT VIA
RDR COMPOSITE AND IR SAT PIXS WITH COOLING CLD TOPS.

PRVS FCST AND DISC HAS A GUD HNDL ON THE CRNT PIX AND FEEL XCLNT
HNDL OF THE ENTIRE EVENT IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED BLO.

NO CHGS TO FCST.
&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00-24Z)...
VFR/MVFR CONDS THRU 06Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR...THEN IFR CONDS DUE TO
STEADY AND EVENTUALLY HVY SNOW DVLPS WITH GRST IMPACT FOR KSLK-KBTV-
KMPV BTWN 08Z-20Z W TO E. IN FACT...LIFR CONDS LKLY CUD BE LKLY DRG
THIS TIMEFRAME.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT FOR FA TNGT INTO SAT NGT.  KEPT
WARNINGS IN PLACE ACRS MOST OF VT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY WWD ACRS
ERN ADRNDCKS.  SREF SHOWING GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROB OF AT LEAST
0.5" QPF ACRS MCH OF VT SO THIS FITS WELL WITH CRNT WRNG AREA.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF CSTL STORM WITH MOIST SE
ATLANTIC INFLOW TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MSTR WWD ACRS FA. INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING WWD ACRS VT WL FOCUS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND BRING
HVY SNOWS TO MUCH OF VT.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SUN)...
WAA LIGHT SNOWS ASSOCD WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NWD ACRS FA.
BEST LIFT WL BE EXITING RGN THIS EVENING SO EXPECT LULL IN PCPN FOR
A GOOD PART OF TNGT BEFORE HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCD WITH SECONDARY STORM
MOVES IN LT TNGT.  ACCUM THRU THIS EVENING 2" OR LESS.

STG SHRTWV AND ASSOCD 140KT UPR LEVEL JET WL DIVE SE AND CARVE OUT
STRONGLY NEG TILTED TROF ACRS NE ON SAT.  MSAS ANALYS ALREADY
SHOWING GOOS PRES FALLS ALG NC CST AND CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE
OCEAN WELL E OF MID ATL CST.  CSTL STORM WL DVLP THIS EVNG MOVG TO
VCNTY ACK ARND 12Z SAT THEN WL EVENTUALLY TRANSFER ENERGY TO TRIPLE
PT LOW FTHR E.

HEAVIEST SNOWS WL OCCUR FROM LT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN AS VRY STG
850-700MB FGEN AND GOOD QG FORCING DVLPS ACRS FA.  LOCATION OF BEST
LIFT TARGETS MOST OF VT FOR HVIEST SNOWFALL WITH AMTS DECRG WWD.
BASED ON THESE SIGNALS WENT WITH GFS/NAM BLEND ON QPF BUT EDGED
CLOSER TO HIGHER GFS AMTS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN MSTR
INFLOW/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND FGEN.  STG MESO CONVECTIVE BANDING
SIGNALS PRESENT WITH XSCTNS SHOWING CSI/CI ABOVE STG FGEN LAYER SO
2"/HR SNOW RATES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM.

SNOW WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SAT EVNG AS BEST LIFT MOVES OUT BUT
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MSTR AXIS
AND CYC FLOW.  CONTD THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUN WITH E-W UPR TROF
AXIS ACRS RGN.

EXPECTED SNOW ACCUM THRU SAT EVNG 10-16" MCH OF ERN VT FROM GREEN
MTNS EWD BUT CONCERNED ABOUT LESSER AMTS IN UPR CT VLY DUE TO WHITE
MTN SHADOW WITH SE INFLOW SO CUT BACK ON ACCUM TO 8-12" IN THIS
RGN.  6-12" WRN VT...4-9" ERN NY DECRG TO 2" ST LAW VLY.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...
PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED THRU
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PINWHEELING S/WV
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ENERGY TRANSLATES INTO PERSISTENT -SW FOR THE
CWA...BUT MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP POPS IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS TIME FOR ALL -SW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION WED NGT THRU THURS...FINALLY
GIVING REGION A BREAK FROM PRECIP. MDL GUIDANCE WANTS TO HINT AT NEAR
40F FOR WED/THURS...BUT W/ NORTH FLOW IN ADVANCE OF HIGH ALONG WITH
LL MOISTURE REMAINING....CLDS WILL CLR OUT BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FOR NOW...AWAY FROM THE 40F MARK. MDLS FOR FRI HAVE NEXT LOW TO OUR
WEST ACROSS N NY. BASED ON TRACK IT LOOKS LIKE TO START AS -SW BUT
GO OVER TO POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
WARM AIR WORKS NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH ABV SCENARIO FOR
NOW W/ ~40 POP AND LET FUTURE RUNS TAKE ITS COURSE AND SEE IF TRACK
CHANGES.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WRNG TNGT THRU 2 AM EST SUNDAY VTZ002>012-016>019
     WINTER WX ADV TNGT THRU 2 AM EST SUNDAY VTZ001.
NY...WINTER WX ADV TNGT THRU 2 AM EST SUNDAY NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&

$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...SLW
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JN









FXUS61 KBTV 120231
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2005

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
FIRST INITIAL WAA BAND...VRY LGT HAS MVD THRU WITH BITS...PIECES STL
WORKING ITS WAY ACRS FA. THE START OF THE 2ND WAVE IS EVIDENT VIA
RDR COMPOSITE AND IR SAT PIXS WITH COOLING CLD TOPS.

PRVS FCST AND DISC HAS A GUD HNDL ON THE CRNT PIX AND FEEL XCLNT
HNDL OF THE ENTIRE EVENT IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED BLO.

NO CHGS TO FCST.
&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00-24Z)...
VFR/MVFR CONDS THRU 06Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR...THEN IFR CONDS DUE TO
STEADY AND EVENTUALLY HVY SNOW DVLPS WITH GRST IMPACT FOR KSLK-KBTV-
KMPV BTWN 08Z-20Z W TO E. IN FACT...LIFR CONDS LKLY CUD BE LKLY DRG
THIS TIMEFRAME.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT FOR FA TNGT INTO SAT NGT.  KEPT
WARNINGS IN PLACE ACRS MOST OF VT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY WWD ACRS
ERN ADRNDCKS.  SREF SHOWING GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROB OF AT LEAST
0.5" QPF ACRS MCH OF VT SO THIS FITS WELL WITH CRNT WRNG AREA.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF CSTL STORM WITH MOIST SE
ATLANTIC INFLOW TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MSTR WWD ACRS FA. INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING WWD ACRS VT WL FOCUS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND BRING
HVY SNOWS TO MUCH OF VT.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SUN)...
WAA LIGHT SNOWS ASSOCD WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NWD ACRS FA.
BEST LIFT WL BE EXITING RGN THIS EVENING SO EXPECT LULL IN PCPN FOR
A GOOD PART OF TNGT BEFORE HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCD WITH SECONDARY STORM
MOVES IN LT TNGT.  ACCUM THRU THIS EVENING 2" OR LESS.

STG SHRTWV AND ASSOCD 140KT UPR LEVEL JET WL DIVE SE AND CARVE OUT
STRONGLY NEG TILTED TROF ACRS NE ON SAT.  MSAS ANALYS ALREADY
SHOWING GOOS PRES FALLS ALG NC CST AND CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE
OCEAN WELL E OF MID ATL CST.  CSTL STORM WL DVLP THIS EVNG MOVG TO
VCNTY ACK ARND 12Z SAT THEN WL EVENTUALLY TRANSFER ENERGY TO TRIPLE
PT LOW FTHR E.

HEAVIEST SNOWS WL OCCUR FROM LT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN AS VRY STG
850-700MB FGEN AND GOOD QG FORCING DVLPS ACRS FA.  LOCATION OF BEST
LIFT TARGETS MOST OF VT FOR HVIEST SNOWFALL WITH AMTS DECRG WWD.
BASED ON THESE SIGNALS WENT WITH GFS/NAM BLEND ON QPF BUT EDGED
CLOSER TO HIGHER GFS AMTS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN MSTR
INFLOW/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND FGEN.  STG MESO CONVECTIVE BANDING
SIGNALS PRESENT WITH XSCTNS SHOWING CSI/CI ABOVE STG FGEN LAYER SO
2"/HR SNOW RATES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM.

SNOW WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SAT EVNG AS BEST LIFT MOVES OUT BUT
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MSTR AXIS
AND CYC FLOW.  CONTD THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUN WITH E-W UPR TROF
AXIS ACRS RGN.

EXPECTED SNOW ACCUM THRU SAT EVNG 10-16" MCH OF ERN VT FROM GREEN
MTNS EWD BUT CONCERNED ABOUT LESSER AMTS IN UPR CT VLY DUE TO WHITE
MTN SHADOW WITH SE INFLOW SO CUT BACK ON ACCUM TO 8-12" IN THIS
RGN.  6-12" WRN VT...4-9" ERN NY DECRG TO 2" ST LAW VLY.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...
PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED THRU
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PINWHEELING S/WV
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ENERGY TRANSLATES INTO PERSISTENT -SW FOR THE
CWA...BUT MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP POPS IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS TIME FOR ALL -SW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION WED NGT THRU THURS...FINALLY
GIVING REGION A BREAK FROM PRECIP. MDL GUIDANCE WANTS TO HINT AT NEAR
40F FOR WED/THURS...BUT W/ NORTH FLOW IN ADVANCE OF HIGH ALONG WITH
LL MOISTURE REMAINING....CLDS WILL CLR OUT BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FOR NOW...AWAY FROM THE 40F MARK. MDLS FOR FRI HAVE NEXT LOW TO OUR
WEST ACROSS N NY. BASED ON TRACK IT LOOKS LIKE TO START AS -SW BUT
GO OVER TO POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
WARM AIR WORKS NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH ABV SCENARIO FOR
NOW W/ ~40 POP AND LET FUTURE RUNS TAKE ITS COURSE AND SEE IF TRACK
CHANGES.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONITE THRU SAT EVENING VTZ002>012-016>019
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONITE THRU SAT EVENING VTZ001.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONITE THRU SAT EVENING
     NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&

$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...SLW
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JN







FXUS61 KBTV 112133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT FOR FA TNGT INTO SAT NGT.  KEPT
WARNINGS IN PLACE ACRS MOST OF VT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY WWD ACRS
ERN ADRNDCKS.  SREF SHOWING GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROB OF AT LEAST
0.5" QPF ACRS MCH OF VT SO THIS FITS WELL WITH CRNT WRNG AREA.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF CSTL STORM WITH MOIST SE
ATLANTIC INFLOW TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MSTR WWD ACRS FA. INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING WWD ACRS VT WL FOCUS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND BRING
HVY SNOWS TO MUCH OF VT.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SUN)...
WAA LIGHT SNOWS ASSOCD WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NWD ACRS FA.
BEST LIFT WL BE EXITING RGN THIS EVENING SO EXPECT LULL IN PCPN FOR
A GOOD PART OF TNGT BEFORE HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCD WITH SECONDARY STORM
MOVES IN LT TNGT.  ACCUM THRU THIS EVENING 2" OR LESS.

STG SHRTWV AND ASSOCD 140KT UPR LEVEL JET WL DIVE SE AND CARVE OUT
STRONGLY NEG TILTED TROF ACRS NE ON SAT.  MSAS ANALYS ALREADY
SHOWING GOOS PRES FALLS ALG NC CST AND CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE
OCEAN WELL E OF MID ATL CST.  CSTL STORM WL DVLP THIS EVNG MOVG TO
VCNTY ACK ARND 12Z SAT THEN WL EVENTUALLY TRANSFER ENERGY TO TRIPLE
PT LOW FTHR E.

HEAVIEST SNOWS WL OCCUR FROM LT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN AS VRY STG
850-700MB FGEN AND GOOD QG FORCING DVLPS ACRS FA.  LOCATION OF BEST
LIFT TARGETS MOST OF VT FOR HVIEST SNOWFALL WITH AMTS DECRG WWD.
BASED ON THESE SIGNALS WENT WITH GFS/NAM BLEND ON QPF BUT EDGED
CLOSER TO HIGHER GFS AMTS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN MSTR
INFLOW/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND FGEN.  STG MESO CONVECTIVE BANDING
SIGNALS PRESENT WITH XSCTNS SHOWING CSI/CI ABOVE STG FGEN LAYER SO
2"/HR SNOW RATES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM.

SNOW WL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SAT EVNG AS BEST LIFT MOVES OUT BUT
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MSTR AXIS
AND CYC FLOW.  CONTD THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUN WITH E-W UPR TROF
AXIS ACRS RGN.

EXPECTED SNOW ACCUM THRU SAT EVNG 10-16" MCH OF ERN VT FROM GREEN
MTNS EWD BUT CONCERNED ABOUT LESSER AMTS IN UPR CT VLY DUE TO WHITE
MTN SHADOW WITH SE INFLOW SO CUT BACK ON ACCUM TO 8-12" IN THIS
RGN.  6-12" WRN VT...4-9" ERN NY DECRG TO 2" ST LAW VLY.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...
PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED THRU
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PINWHEELING S/WV
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ENERGY TRANSLATES INTO PERSISTENT -SW FOR THE
CWA...BUT MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP POPS IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS TIME FOR ALL -SW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION WED NGT THRU THURS...FINALLY
GIVING REGION A BREAK FROM PRECIP. MDL GUIDANCE WANTS TO HINT AT NEAR
40F FOR WED/THURS...BUT W/ NORTH FLOW IN ADVANCE OF HIGH ALONG WITH
LL MOISTURE REMAINING....CLDS WILL CLR OUT BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FOR NOW...AWAY FROM THE 40F MARK. MDLS FOR FRI HAVE NEXT LOW TO OUR
WEST ACROSS N NY. BASED ON TRACK IT LOOKS LIKE TO START AS -SW BUT
GO OVER TO POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
WARM AIR WORKS NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH ABV SCENARIO FOR
NOW W/ ~40 POP AND LET FUTURE RUNS TAKE ITS COURSE AND SEE IF TRACK
CHANGES.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
MVFR COND ALL SITES THRU 20Z-21Z. SNOW WILL WORK NORTH INTO
REGIONAFT 21Z FOR IFR TO VLIFR COND FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WILL REDUCE VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 SM...AND
CEILINGS BLW OVC010. WINDS OUT OF SOUTH EARLY ON WILL SHIFT LIGHT
OUT OF ENE BFR BECMG WNW BY 18Z SAT. WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS FOR MUCH
OF PERIOD. HIR TRRN WILL BE  OBSCD.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONITE THRU SAT EVENING VTZ002>012-016>019
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONITE THRU SAT EVENING VTZ001.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONITE THRU SAT EVENING
     NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JN




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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