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FPUS51 KBTV 170730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 AM EST THU MAR 17 2005


VTZ006-008-010-016>018-172100-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...
RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
230 AM EST THU MAR 17 2005

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 15. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 171144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST THU MAR 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WILL UPDATE ZONES THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. CLDS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...REMAINING
JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE CLDS INCR DURING
AFTERNOON HRS.
&&

JN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 201AM...
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT NGT)...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THRU SAT MORN AS SFC RIDGE WILL MV SE OVER CWA FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THE ONLY ISSUES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF CLD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR -SW AS LOW PASSES EAST ALONG
NORTHERN BORDER ZONES. THINKING THAT W/ LOW TO OUR WEST OVER PAST
COUPLE DAYS AND CWA UNDER CLD INFLUENCE FROM TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...CLD COVER STAYED MOSTLY IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH
LOW PASSING CLOSER TO AREA...THIS WILL SHIFT CLDS DOWN EVEN
FARTHER...MDL RH/S NEAR 80 PERCENT IN SOUTH...SO WILL EXTEND CLD
COVER FOR ALL ZONES AS LOW PASSES...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SW DUE TO OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE EFFECTS...SO WILL
FOLLOW CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN CENTRAL AND
NC NE VT...SOUTH OF LOW. WILL ALSO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPS AS THEY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER PAST FEW DAYS WITH
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP. EAST EDGE OF SFC RIDGE SETS UP OVER CWA SAT
MORN AND OVER REST OF CWA BY SAT NGT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
RIDGE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MDL RUNS...W/ LATEST RUN KEEPING
ANY PRECIP FROM SYSTEM COMING OVER OHIO VALLEY SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.
EARLIER DGEX AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIP IN...BUT SINCE MDLS NOW TRENDING
TO DRY FORECAST...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS HERE AND KEEP JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES AND TWEAK CLD COVER AS WELL. NO
CHANGES MADE AFT SUN.

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.  SOME BKN-OVC SC ABOVE 3000
FT FROM ADIRONDACKS TO NRN VT SHOULD BECOME SCT ERLY THIS MRNG. THEN
BKN SC/AC ASSOCD WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV WL MOVE W TO E ACRS RGN
DURG AFTN.  A FEW SNW SHWRS PSBL LT TDA AND THIS EVNG...MAINLY ACRS
WRN ZONES WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT KSLK.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KC









FXUS61 KBTV 171142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST THU MAR 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WILL UPDATE ZONES THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. CLDS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...REMAINING
JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE CLDS INCR DURING
AFTERNOON HRS.
&&

JN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 201AM...
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT NGT)...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THRU SAT MORN AS SFC RIDGE WILL MV SE OVER CWA FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THE ONLY ISSUES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF CLD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR -SW AS LOW PASSES EAST ALONG
NORTHERN BORDER ZONES. THINKING THAT W/ LOW TO OUR WEST OVER PAST
COUPLE DAYS AND CWA UNDER CLD INFLUENCE FROM TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...CLD COVER STAYED MOSTLY IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH
LOW PASSING CLOSER TO AREA...THIS WILL SHIFT CLDS DOWN EVEN
FARTHER...MDL RH/S NEAR 80 PERCENT IN SOUTH...SO WILL EXTEND CLD
COVER FOR ALL ZONES AS LOW PASSES...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SW DUE TO OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE EFFECTS...SO WILL
FOLLOW CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN CENTRAL AND
NC NE VT...SOUTH OF LOW. WILL ALSO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPS AS THEY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER PAST FEW DAYS WITH
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP. EAST EDGE OF SFC RIDGE SETS UP OVER CWA SAT
MORN AND OVER REST OF CWA BY SAT NGT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
RIDGE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MDL RUNS...W/ LATEST RUN KEEPING
ANY PRECIP FROM SYSTEM COMING OVER OHIO VALLEY SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.
EARLIER DGEX AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIP IN...BUT SINCE MDLS NOW TRENDING
TO DRY FORECAST...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS HERE AND KEEP JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES AND TWEAK CLD COVER AS WELL. NO
CHANGES MADE AFT SUN.

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.  SOME BKN-OVC SC ABOVE 3000
FT FROM ADIRONDACKS TO NRN VT SHOULD BECOME SCT ERLY THIS MRNG. THEN
BKN SC/AC ASSOCD WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV WL MOVE W TO E ACRS RGN
DURG AFTN.  A FEW SNW SHWRS PSBL LT TDA AND THIS EVNG...MAINLY ACRS
WRN ZONES WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT KSLK.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KC









FXUS61 KBTV 171141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST THU MAR 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WILL UPDATE ZONES THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. CLDS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...REMAINING
JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE CLDS INCR DURING
AFTERNOON HRS.
&&

JN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 201AM...
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT NGT)...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THRU SAT MORN AS SFC RIDGE WILL MV SE OVER CWA FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THE ONLY ISSUES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF CLD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR -SW AS LOW PASSES EAST ALONG
NORTHERN BORDER ZONES. THINKING THAT W/ LOW TO OUR WEST OVER PAST
COUPLE DAYS AND CWA UNDER CLD INFLUENCE FROM TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...CLD COVER STAYED MOSTLY IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH
LOW PASSING CLOSER TO AREA...THIS WILL SHIFT CLDS DOWN EVEN
FARTHER...MDL RH/S NEAR 80 PERCENT IN SOUTH...SO WILL EXTEND CLD
COVER FOR ALL ZONES AS LOW PASSES...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SW DUE TO OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE EFFECTS...SO WILL
FOLLOW CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN CENTRAL AND
NC NE VT...SOUTH OF LOW. WILL ALSO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPS AS THEY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER PAST FEW DAYS WITH
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP. EAST EDGE OF SFC RIDGE SETS UP OVER CWA SAT
MORN AND OVER REST OF CWA BY SAT NGT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
RIDGE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MDL RUNS...W/ LATEST RUN KEEPING
ANY PRECIP FROM SYSTEM COMING OVER OHIO VALLEY SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.
EARLIER DGEX AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIP IN...BUT SINCE MDLS NOW TRENDING
TO DRY FORECAST...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS HERE AND KEEP JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES AND TWEAK CLD COVER AS WELL. NO
CHANGES MADE AFT SUN.

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.  SOME BKN-OVC SC ABOVE 3000
FT FROM ADIRONDACKS TO NRN VT SHOULD BECOME SCT ERLY THIS MRNG. THEN
BKN SC/AC ASSOCD WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV WL MOVE W TO E ACRS RGN
DURG AFTN.  A FEW SNW SHWRS PSBL LT TDA AND THIS EVNG...MAINLY ACRS
WRN ZONES WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT KSLK.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KC









FXUS61 KBTV 171140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST THU MAR 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WILL UPDATE ZONES THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. CLDS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...REMAINING
JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE CLDS INCR DURING
AFTERNOON HRS.
&&

JN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 201AM...
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT NGT)...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THRU SAT MORN AS SFC RIDGE WILL MV SE OVER CWA FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THE ONLY ISSUES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF CLD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR -SW AS LOW PASSES EAST ALONG
NORTHERN BORDER ZONES. THINKING THAT W/ LOW TO OUR WEST OVER PAST
COUPLE DAYS AND CWA UNDER CLD INFLUENCE FROM TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...CLD COVER STAYED MOSTLY IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH
LOW PASSING CLOSER TO AREA...THIS WILL SHIFT CLDS DOWN EVEN
FARTHER...MDL RH/S NEAR 80 PERCENT IN SOUTH...SO WILL EXTEND CLD
COVER FOR ALL ZONES AS LOW PASSES...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SW DUE TO OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE EFFECTS...SO WILL
FOLLOW CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN CENTRAL AND
NC NE VT...SOUTH OF LOW. WILL ALSO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPS AS THEY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER PAST FEW DAYS WITH
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP. EAST EDGE OF SFC RIDGE SETS UP OVER CWA SAT
MORN AND OVER REST OF CWA BY SAT NGT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
RIDGE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MDL RUNS...W/ LATEST RUN KEEPING
ANY PRECIP FROM SYSTEM COMING OVER OHIO VALLEY SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.
EARLIER DGEX AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIP IN...BUT SINCE MDLS NOW TRENDING
TO DRY FORECAST...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS HERE AND KEEP JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES AND TWEAK CLD COVER AS WELL. NO
CHANGES MADE AFT SUN.

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.  SOME BKN-OVC SC ABOVE 3000
FT FROM ADIRONDACKS TO NRN VT SHOULD BECOME SCT ERLY THIS MRNG. THEN
BKN SC/AC ASSOCD WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV WL MOVE W TO E ACRS RGN
DURG AFTN.  A FEW SNW SHWRS PSBL LT TDA AND THIS EVNG...MAINLY ACRS
WRN ZONES WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT KSLK.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KC









FXUS61 KBTV 170701
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 AM EST THU MAR 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT NGT)...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THRU SAT MORN AS SFC RIDGE WILL MV SE OVER CWA FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THE ONLY ISSUES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF CLD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR -SW AS LOW PASSES EAST ALONG
NORTHERN BORDER ZONES. THINKING THAT W/ LOW TO OUR WEST OVER PAST
COUPLE DAYS AND CWA UNDER CLD INFLUENCE FROM TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...CLD COVER STAYED MOSTLY IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH
LOW PASSING CLOSER TO AREA...THIS WILL SHIFT CLDS DOWN EVEN
FARTHER...MDL RH/S NEAR 80 PERCENT IN SOUTH...SO WILL EXTEND CLD
COVER FOR ALL ZONES AS LOW PASSES...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALTHOUGH SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SW DUE TO OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE EFFECTS...SO WILL
FOLLOW CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN CENTRAL AND
NC NE VT...SOUTH OF LOW. WILL ALSO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPS AS THEY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER PAST FEW DAYS WITH
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP. EAST EDGE OF SFC RIDGE SETS UP OVER CWA SAT
MORN AND OVER REST OF CWA BY SAT NGT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
RIDGE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MDL RUNS...W/ LATEST RUN KEEPING
ANY PRECIP FROM SYSTEM COMING OVER OHIO VALLEY SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.
EARLIER DGEX AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIP IN...BUT SINCE MDLS NOW TRENDING
TO DRY FORECAST...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS HERE AND KEEP JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES AND TWEAK CLD COVER AS WELL. NO
CHANGES MADE AFT SUN.

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.  SOME BKN-OVC SC ABOVE 3000
FT FROM ADIRONDACKS TO NRN VT SHOULD BECOME SCT ERLY THIS MRNG. THEN
BKN SC/AC ASSOCD WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV WL MOVE W TO E ACRS RGN
DURG AFTN.  A FEW SNW SHWRS PSBL LT TDA AND THIS EVNG...MAINLY ACRS
WRN ZONES WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT KSLK.
&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KC







FXUS61 KBTV 170249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST WED MAR 16 2005

.UPDATE...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AROUND THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE
FORECASTS TO REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOTHING BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. WILL REMOVE
THE CHANCE OF SNOW FROM MOST OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GO WITH A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST VERMONT ZONES AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF...SO
WILL GO WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. &&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM EST...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN SHORT TERM FCST HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE OVER
COURSE OF NEXT 48 HOURS AS LG SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS N ATL
CONTINUES...AND UPSTREAM FEATURES ACROSS NE CONUS SHOWING LITTLE
MOVEMENT. LATEST OPERATIONAL PROGS AGREE REASONABLY WELL THAT MID
LVL VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRETCHED OUT IN A NW TO SE
ORIENTATION ACROSS FA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW AT
MID LVLS FORMING IN THIS REGIME ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THU
NT/EARLY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE PRIOR THINKING OF KEEPING MORE
CLOUDINESS ALONG OF AND NORTH OF THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS...AND MORE
SUN SOUTH AND WEST. RH CONTINUES TO BE SHALLOW ALONG WITH RATHER
NEUTRAL WARM OR COOL ADVECTION...BUT MEAN NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OF BTWN
10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFTING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHSN OR FLURRIES. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED ALONG NRN/WSTRN SLOPES OF THE NRN GREENS...WHERE ACCUM UP
TO AN INCH OR SO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING ANY 12 HR PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGHOUT THE 30S ACROSS NEARLY ALL
AREAS THU AND FRI AS LOW LVL THICKNESS PROFILES REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO VALUES OF TODAY AND YESTERDAY. OVERNT MINS MORE
PROBLEMATIC...AND CLOSELY TIED TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ADJUSTED VALUES BASED ON THIS ACCORDINGLY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BRIDGES ACROSS AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AMPLE SUN ALL AREAS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOC MID LVL SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
ENCROACH ON AREA. WILL OPT TO INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS AREA LATER SAT NT AND INTRODUCE A CHC OF SHSN ACROSS N NY
ZONES OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO GFS SOLN HERE...THOUGH MODEL DOES
APPEAR TO SUFFER SLIGHTLY FROM SOME SORT OF GRID SCALE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS IN ITS HANDLING OF THE MID LVL FEATURE. ALSO TO CONSIDER IS
DEGREE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW
SYSTEM DOWN AND SHUNT IT SOUTHWARD. THUS TIMING ISSUES MAY HAVE TO
BE ADJUSTED ON LATER SHIFTS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  THIS SUGGESTS A
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AREAS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESSER OF A CHANCE OF SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.  SYSTEM MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A RETURN
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY.  THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THIS IDEA CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.  THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHICH INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLOW WARMING TREND WITH READINGS ON WEDNESDAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF VERMONT.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS EXIST WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.  ANY CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE 3000 FEET.  ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.  SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE....WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EE





FXUS61 KBTV 162015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EST WED MAR 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN SHORT TERM FCST HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE OVER
COURSE OF NEXT 48 HOURS AS LG SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS N ATL
CONTINUES...AND UPSTREAM FEATURES ACROSS NE CONUS SHOWING LITTLE
MOVEMENT. LATEST OPERATIONAL PROGS AGREE REASONABLY WELL THAT MID
LVL VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRETCHED OUT IN A NW TO SE
ORIENTATION ACROSS FA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW AT
MID LVLS FORMING IN THIS REGIME ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THU
NT/EARLY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE PRIOR THINKING OF KEEPING MORE
CLOUDINESS ALONG OF AND NORTH OF THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS...AND MORE
SUN SOUTH AND WEST. RH CONTINUES TO BE SHALLOW ALONG WITH RATHER
NEUTRAL WARM OR COOL ADVECTION...BUT MEAN NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OF BTWN
10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFTING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHSN OR FLURRIES. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED ALONG NRN/WSTRN SLOPES OF THE NRN GREENS...WHERE ACCUM UP
TO AN INCH OR SO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING ANY 12 HR PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGHOUT THE 30S ACROSS NEARLY ALL
AREAS THU AND FRI AS LOW LVL THICKNESS PROFILES REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO VALUES OF TODAY AND YESTERDAY. OVERNT MINS MORE
PROBLEMATIC...AND CLOSELY TIED TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ADJUSTED VALUES BASED ON THIS ACCORDINGLY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BRIDGES ACROSS AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AMPLE SUN ALL AREAS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOC MID LVL SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
ENCROACH ON AREA. WILL OPT TO INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS AREA LATER SAT NT AND INTRODUCE A CHC OF SHSN ACROSS N NY
ZONES OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO GFS SOLN HERE...THOUGH MODEL DOES
APPEAR TO SUFFER SLIGHTLY FROM SOME SORT OF GRID SCALE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS IN ITS HANDLING OF THE MID LVL FEATURE. ALSO TO CONSIDER IS
DEGREE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW
SYSTEM DOWN AND SHUNT IT SOUTHWARD. THUS TIMING ISSUES MAY HAVE TO
BE ADJUSTED ON LATER SHIFTS.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  THIS SUGGESTS A
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AREAS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESSER OF A CHANCE OF SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.  SYSTEM MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A RETURN
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY.  THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THIS IDEA CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.  THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHICH INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLOW WARMING TREND WITH READINGS ON WEDNESDAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF VERMONT.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS EXIST WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.  ANY CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE 3000 FEET.  ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.  SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EE










   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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