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Expires:200503182100;;771500
FPUS51 KBTV 180746
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EST FRI MAR 18 2005


VTZ006-008-010-016>018-182100-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...
RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
245 AM EST FRI MAR 18 2005

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 16. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 180728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 AM EST FRI MAR 18 2005

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN NGT)...
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MV EAST OVER CWA THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF REGION...AND WILL OPT TO PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CWA THRU EARLY AFTERNOON FROM DACKS EAST. NE KINGDOM WILL
SEE MORE CONTINUING PRECIP THRU SAT MORN...ESPECIALLY AS LOW MVS
EAST OF AREA...ALLOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO WORK INTO ZONES ON
NORTH FLOW. WILL CONCENTRATE PRECIP THRU SAT MORNING IN NC NE
VT...WITH EXTREME NE VT IN 30-40 POP RANGE...20 POP ELSEWHERE. MDLS
DO SHOW SOME HINT AT LEFTOVER MOISTURE...SO THIS FITS IN WELL FOR
NOW W/ THINKING AND WITH SURROUNDING WFO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SETTING UP A PTCLDY NGT AND EARLY
MORN SUNDAY. NEXT LOW MVS EAST THRU OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...TRANSFERING DYNAMICS TO LOW OFF COAST BY MIDDAY THEN MVG
EAST. WITH THIS TRANSITION...BULK PRECIP WILL BE CONTAINED TO OUR
SOUTH SO WILL ADJUST POPS TO GIVE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES HIGHER
CHANCE FOR RECEIVING -SN. EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE POSSIBLE
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AFTER BEGINNING AS ALL SNOW...WITH WARMER AIR OVER
REGION...AND THEN SHOULD ALL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW BY EVENING
TIME. WILL MAKE THIS CHANGE TO SHOW IN GRIDS.
&&

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
PRECIP FROM LATE WEEKEND STORM TAPERS OFF AS LOW MVS OUT TO SEA.
WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA FOR WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MVS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MDL DIFF SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUN
VERSUS PREVIOUS FOR SYSTEM MVG UP THE COAST MIDWEEK. CURRENT MDL
RUNS HAVE SYSTEM SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST...WHILE PREVIOUS TAKES OUT TO SEA QUICKER W/OUT AFFECTING ANY
OF CWA. LATEST GFS HAS THIS LOW MVG MORE NORTHERLY DUE TO TROUGH
BEHIND EXITING LOW DIGGING SHARPER SOUTH ALONG APPALCHAINS. UPPER
LOW NOW LIFTS MORE NORTH...CARRYING SFC SYSTEM ALONG WITH IT.
BECAUSE SO FAR IN EXTENDED...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST AND LET DAYSHIFT GET ANOTHER MDL RUN TO SEE IF WESTWARD
SHIFT REMAINS.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING...PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF AREA WILL KEEP OVERCAST VFR
DECK OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL HINDER AVIATION ACTIVITIES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM....JN
AVIATION...CTL

$$







FXUS61 KBTV 180248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
948 PM EST THU MAR 17 2005

.UPDATE...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...
BUT NOTHING REACHING THE SURFACE. DEW POINTS STILL QUITE LOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LIKELY ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVAPORATING
IN THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO LOWER THE POPS AND TO
JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES INSTEAD OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOOK AT
18Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON
FRIDAY...SO WILL ALSO LOWER THE POPS ON FRIDAY AND JUST MENTION A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES INSTEAD OF SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 322 PM EST...
SYNOPSIS...
WK STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE SRN FA TONITE. SFC HI PRESS RIDGE TO
BUILD ACRS THE FA ON FRI THRU SAT NITE. ANOTHER STORM SYS TO MOVE
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT AND SAT NITE. S/W TO MOVE ACRS THE
FA TONITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON FRI.

SHORT TERM (THROUGH SAT NITE)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU SAT NITE. SOME
LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON SAT NITE. SOME
LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI AND AGAIN ON
SAT NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE. MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA
LOOK TO BE AOB 0.25" IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SHSN MOVING INTO NY STATE ATTM. THESE
SHSN (AND ASSOCIATED CLDS) EXPECTED TO BRUSH MOSTLY ACRS THE SRN AND
CENTRAL ZONES TONITE. SOME MORE SHSN/FLURRIES POSSIBLE MOSTLY ACRS
THE NRN TIER ZONES ON FRI AS THE UPR TROF FINALLY PASSES BY. DRY WX
EXPECTED ACRS THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...WITH
MUCH OF ANY PCPN WITH THE NEXT SYS ON SAT NITE STAYING TO THE W-SW OF
THE FA THEN. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN LT OUT OF THE W-NW IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S ON FRI AND IN THE M30S-L40S ON
SAT. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY AROUND 20F TONITE AND ON FRI NITE.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 330 PM.

O'MURRAY

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MAIN WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING COURSE OF EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
MAINLY DRY CONDS...PLENTY OF SUN...AND NEAR SEASONABLE LATE MARCH
TEMPS. WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING EAST FROM OHIO VLY/LOWER LAKES TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME SHUNTED MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF FA DURING SUN/SUN NT
PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTERWARD...OPERATIONAL SOLNS ARGUE FOR WEAK SFC RIDGING ALONG WITH
WEAK MID LVL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. WIND
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH MAINLY PTLY TO MO SUNNY CONDS AND
TEMPS W/I 3 DEG OF SEASONAL NORMS. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UNUSUALLY LONG N ATL/DAVIS STRAIT BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS. MID TO UPPER LVL HIGH
WILL BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR DEEP POLAR VORTEX TO FORM ACROSS
CANADIAN ARCTIC BY THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THUS CONUS FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...AND OPEN UP TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...
ALLOWING FOR A MORE EAST TO WEST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND RISING
HEIGHTS ACROSS LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO CROSS AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNT HOURS. WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WIND FLOW AND INTRODUCE SCT SHSN ACROSS AREA MAINLY
BTWN 22Z AND 04Z ALONG WITH SCT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN MORE PERSISTENT
ACTIVITY. AS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT MODERATE
NW FLOW ALONG WITH SCT-BKN MAINLY VFR CIGS.
&&

JMG

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WGH

$$





FXUS61 KBTV 172023
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EST THU MAR 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
WK STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE SRN FA TONITE. SFC HI PRESS RIDGE TO
BUILD ACRS THE FA ON FRI THRU SAT NITE. ANOTHER STORM SYS TO MOVE
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT AND SAT NITE. S/W TO MOVE ACRS THE
FA TONITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON FRI.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SAT NITE)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU SAT NITE. SOME
LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON SAT NITE. SOME
LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI AND AGAIN ON
SAT NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE. MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA
LOOK TO BE AOB 0.25" IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SHSN MOVING INTO NY STATE ATTM. THESE
SHSN (AND ASSOCIATED CLDS) EXPECTED TO BRUSH MOSTLY ACRS THE SRN AND
CENTRAL ZONES TONITE. SOME MORE SHSN/FLURRIES POSSIBLE MOSTLY ACRS
THE NRN TIER ZONES ON FRI AS THE UPR TROF FINALLY PASSES BY. DRY WX
EXPECTED ACRS THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...WITH
MUCH OF ANY PCPN WITH THE NEXT SYS ON SAT NITE STAYING TO THE W-SW OF
THE FA THEN. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN LT OUT OF THE W-NW IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S ON FRI AND IN THE M30S-L40S ON
SAT. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY AROUND 20F TONITE AND ON FRI NITE.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 330 PM.

O'MURRAY

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MAIN WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING COURSE OF EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
MAINLY DRY CONDS...PLENTY OF SUN...AND NEAR SEASONABLE LATE MARCH
TEMPS. WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING EAST FROM OHIO VLY/LOWER LAKES TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME SHUNTED MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF FA DURING SUN/SUN NT
PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTERWARD...OPERATIONAL SOLNS ARGUE FOR WEAK SFC RIDGING ALONG WITH
WEAK MID LVL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. WIND
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH MAINLY PTLY TO MO SUNNY CONDS AND
TEMPS W/I 3 DEG OF SEASONAL NORMS. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UNUSUALLY LONG N ATL/DAVIS STRAIT BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS. MID TO UPPER LVL HIGH
WILL BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR DEEP POLAR VORTEX TO FORM ACROSS
CANADIAN ARCTIC BY THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THUS CONUS FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...AND OPEN UP TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...
ALLOWING FOR A MORE EAST TO WEST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND RISING
HEIGHTS ACROSS LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO CROSS AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNT HOURS. WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WIND FLOW AND INTRODUCE SCT SHSN ACROSS AREA MAINLY
BTWN 22Z AND 04Z ALONG WITH SCT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN MORE PERSISTENT
ACTIVITY. AS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT MODERATE
NW FLOW ALONG WITH SCT-BKN MAINLY VFR CIGS.

JMG

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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