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Expires:200503192200;;794294
FPUS51 KBTV 190850
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EST SAT MAR 19 2005


VTZ006-016-017-192200-
LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
350 AM EST SAT MAR 19 2005

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5
MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 15 TO 20.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 190736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
235 AM EST SAT MAR 19 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST OF KINGDOM OF
VERMONT MAY LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING...BUT THEN DISSIPATE.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW STILL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
HELPING TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.  OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.  SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS
SOME CIRRUS ADVANCING EASTWARD...BUT THIS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
MOVING EAST WITH UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION NOT GOING
ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 1-2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THUS REMAINING JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.  UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.  SYSTEM TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
AS IT TRIES TO MOVE INTO AREA BLOCKED BY UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST.  WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR AREA.
FRONTOGENESIS AT 850/700 MB WILL BE CONCENTRATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS WELL AND SHOULD BECOME ELONGATED RATHER THAN MOVING
NORTHWARD IN THE REGION.  AS A RESULT...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL
GO WITH A SOUTH TO NORTH DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH AND LEAST AMOUNT TO THE
NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OF VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.  DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXITING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS SHOULD ALSO HOLD TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.  STILL LOOKING LIKE
UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY
WANTS TO FORM A SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA.  WHILE THIS WOULD
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA.  DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WELL
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS ON CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY. SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL BEGIN
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION..........LAHIFF






FXUS61 KBTV 190255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST FRI MAR 18 2005

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN VERMONT FROM QUEBEC AT THIS TIME AS A SHORTWV MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS WITH THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...SO WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THESE AREAS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES
CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN QUEBEC...AND EXPECT
THIS CLEARING TO WORK SOUTH INTO VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
BROKEN UP THE ZONES TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NEW YORK
PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF
SO WILL MAKE CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 308 PM EST...
SYNOPSIS...
SFC HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU SUN. STORM SYS TO
MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT NITE AND SUN...THEN TO THE
SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG ON SUN NITE. MORE SFC HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE
GREAT LKS REGION ON MON AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON MON NITE AND TUE.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MON NITE)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU MON. SOME LOW-LVL
MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON SUN. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND AGAIN (ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES) ON SUN AND
SUN NITE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON SUN THRU MON.
SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON SUN AND SUN NITE. PW VALUES
ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.2" TONITE THRU SAT NITE AND AROUND 0.3"
ON SUN. WWE SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB AN INCH ACRS THE FA ON DAY 3.

VIS SAT PIX SHOW JUST SOME CU ACRS THE REGION ATTM. BUFCAN SHOWS A
FEW LT RETURNS ACRS SRN CANADA THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT FEEL THAT THE FA SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLDS/PCPN TONITE. DRY WX TO CONT ACRS THE FA ON SAT THRU MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF ON SUN...THEN SOME MOSTLY -SN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL TIER ZONES LATER ON SUN AND INTO EARLY ON SUN NITE. HAVE
KEPT MOSTLY SCHC/CHC POPS ACRS THE FA FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. MORE DRY
WX EXPECTED ACRS THE FA ON MON/MON NITE. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY
+5-TEENS TONITE AND IN THE MID TEENS-L20S. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S-L40S OVER THE WEEKEND. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SHORT-TERM TEMPS
BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST FWC DATA.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 330 PM.

MURRAY

LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
GENERAL TROFINESS ACRS NE CONUS STL REMAINS THRU PERIOD...PSBLY BCMG
MORE AMPLITUDE LIKE ERLY MARCH BUT NOT AS A RESULT OF LARGE -NAO/+PNA
(PLEASE SEE HPC XNTD DISC FOR DETAILS). THE END RESULT IS COOLER THAN
NORMAL PATTERN...ESP TOWARD END OF THE WEEK BUT STL MUCH MORE
PLEASANT THAN ERLR IN THE MONTH DUE TO "SPRING SS" WITH ABV FRZG
MAXES AND SUB-FRZG MINS...MAPLE SUGARING SEASON.

THERE/S ALRDY A DISCREPANCY BTWN CONSENSUS SOLNS AND GFS FOR
TUES NGT-WED SYSTEM. GFS TRENDS HAVE BEEN A NORTHWARD TRACK (AS ALL
WINTER) WITH CONSENSUS IN FLATTER FLOW KEEPING SRN SYSTEM ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY COURSE. HPC PREFERS MORE SRN SOLN AS DO I (ATTM) BUT GIVEN
TRENDS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICE/S CONSENSUS HAVE DELIVERED CHC POPS
INTO MY FA TUES NGT-WED. THIS WL BE WORTH WATCHING...NOT SO MUCH FOR
ITS AMT OF SNOW BUT WHETHER WE GET ANY OR NOT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A LULL ON WED NGT BTWN DEPARTING COASTAL AND
APPROACHING S/W ON THU...SO HAVE TRIED BACK OFF ON WED NGT WITH SLGT
CHC OF -SHSN WITH CHC/SLGT CHC ON THU BFR GRADUAL DRIER IN NW
CYCLONIC FLOW DRG END OF WK...BUT STL ENUF INSTABILITY MORE CHC MTN
-SHSN/FLURRIES.

AVIATION...
ELONGATED/STRETCHED ULVL TROF AND VORT CHANNEL JUST N OF BDR IN
CANADA BUT VRY LIMITED MOISTURE. ENUF LLVL INSTABILITY FOR SOME GUSTY
WNDS AT TIMES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THRU PERIOD JUST JUST SCT CLD
CVR.

SLW
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 182008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EST FRI MAR 18 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SFC HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU SUN. STORM SYS TO
MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT NITE AND SUN...THEN TO THE
SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG ON SUN NITE. MORE SFC HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE
GREAT LKS REGION ON MON AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON MON NITE AND TUE.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MON NITE)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU MON. SOME LOW-LVL
MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON SUN. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND AGAIN (ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES) ON SUN AND
SUN NITE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON SUN THRU MON.
SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON SUN AND SUN NITE. PW VALUES
ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.2" TONITE THRU SAT NITE AND AROUND 0.3"
ON SUN. WWE SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB AN INCH ACRS THE FA ON DAY 3.

VIS SAT PIX SHOW JUST SOME CU ACRS THE REGION ATTM. BUFCAN SHOWS A
FEW LT RETURNS ACRS SRN CANADA THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT FEEL THAT THE FA SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLDS/PCPN TONITE. DRY WX TO CONT ACRS THE FA ON SAT THRU MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF ON SUN...THEN SOME MOSTLY -SN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL TIER ZONES LATER ON SUN AND INTO EARLY ON SUN NITE. HAVE
KEPT MOSTLY SCHC/CHC POPS ACRS THE FA FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. MORE DRY
WX EXPECTED ACRS THE FA ON MON/MON NITE. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY
+5-TEENS TONITE AND IN THE MID TEENS-L20S. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S-L40S OVER THE WEEKEND. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SHORT-TERM TEMPS
BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST FWC DATA.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 330 PM.

MURRAY

.LONG TERM (TUE ONWARD)...
GENERAL TROFINESS ACRS NE CONUS STL REMAINS THRU PERIOD...PSBLY BCMG
MORE AMPLITUDE LIKE ERLY MARCH BUT NOT AS A RESULT OF LARGE -NAO/+PNA
(PLEASE SEE HPC XNTD DISC FOR DETAILS). THE END RESULT IS COOLER THAN
NORMAL PATTERN...ESP TOWARD END OF THE WEEK BUT STL MUCH MORE
PLEASANT THAN ERLR IN THE MONTH DUE TO "SPRING SS" WITH ABV FRZG
MAXES AND SUB-FRZG MINS...MAPLE SUGARING SEASON.

THERE/S ALRDY A DISCREPANCY BTWN CONSENSUS SOLNS AND GFS FOR
TUES NGT-WED SYSTEM. GFS TRENDS HAVE BEEN A NORTHWARD TRACK (AS ALL
WINTER) WITH CONSENSUS IN FLATTER FLOW KEEPING SRN SYSTEM ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY COURSE. HPC PREFERS MORE SRN SOLN AS DO I (ATTM) BUT GIVEN
TRENDS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICE/S CONSENSUS HAVE DELIVERED CHC POPS
INTO MY FA TUES NGT-WED. THIS WL BE WORTH WATCHING...NOT SO MUCH FOR
ITS AMT OF SNOW BUT WHETHER WE GET ANY OR NOT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A LULL ON WED NGT BTWN DEPARTING COASTAL AND
APPROACHING S/W ON THU...SO HAVE TRIED BACK OFF ON WED NGT WITH SLGT
CHC OF -SHSN WITH CHC/SLGT CHC ON THU BFR GRADUAL DRIER IN NW
CYCLONIC FLOW DRG END OF WK...BUT STL ENUF INSTABILITY MORE CHC MTN
-SHSN/FLURRIES.

.AVIATION...
ELONGATED/STRETCHED ULVL TROF AND VORT CHANNEL JUST N OF BDR IN
CANADA BUT VRY LIMITED MOISTURE. ENUF LLVL INSTABILITY FOR SOME GUSTY
WNDS AT TIMES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THRU PERIOD JUST JUST SCT CLD
CVR.

SLW

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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