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On Mon, 21 Mar 2005 17:56:35 -0500, James L Crowley <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:

>Scott, any predictions about the system coming through on the weekend? Is
there
>a chance for more powder before going to spring? Not that I really need
more
>powder after all I've feasted on over the past couple weeks, but once you
get
>addicted it's hard to break the habit.
>

There are definitely more chances for powder, although they are becoming
few and far between.  Climatologically, we usually get a few more
elevation snowfalls between now and the end of the snow season.  This time
of year with sun angle and daylight, elevation and time-of-day become
crucial to accumulating snow although there are the good storms that can
make it dump to the valley floors well into April...it just means that
during this time of year its much harder to get the light accumulating
snowfall during the day.  Its usually a foot or 0-2" of slop because of
the need for strong dynamics in the form of vertical vorticities.

With that said, I think the storm for the weekend holds at least the
potential for accumulating snowfall across the mountains.  A low pressure
system will approach the northeast from the southwest.  It looks to be a
quick mover with precip in and out in 12hrs.  This should be snow in
the 'dacks, Greens and Whites...with the real accumulating snow above
1,000 feet.  Temp profiles and thicknesses support this with snow levels
rising during the day and falling to the valleys at night.  If it were a
month ago, I would be saying this looks like a moderate snowfall event (4-
8") but this time of year it just doesn't look impressive.  It is still in
the 5-7 day range so all of this is just mere speculation and it will
change with the next model run.  However, with the lack of fresh cold air
(unless precip breaks out early in the morning after some radiational
cooling early in the night, it could manufacture its own cold air), I'd
say we will be looking at a system that delievers some accumulating
snowfall to the ski resorts with mixed precip at lower elevations.

After that, there is some indication something may try to follow it up the
coast on a lagging frontal boundary next week.  I'd say our chances of
seeing at least one more snowfall of greater than 6" in the mountains are
very good, but after the first week in April it will decrease very
quickly.  Negative NAO goes positive by April 7th and then it warms up
fast.

-Scott

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