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Expires:200505102100;;977495
FPUS51 KBTV 100655
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-102100-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON
300 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS...
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 100654
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
240 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ULVL RDG ACRS FA WITH SFC HIGH MVG OFFSHORE FOR RETURN WARM FLOW
TDY BUT IT WL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. S/W BEHIND ULVL RDG AXIS
WL LIFT N INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAKENING SFC CD FNT DROPPING INTO FA
WED. -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DVLP IN GRT LAKES/OH RVR VLY TDY AHD OF THIS
FNT WL MV INTO WRN FA BFR DAWN AS -SHRA.

ATMOS WL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DEPENDING ON ANY DAYTIME HEATING WITH
FCSTD CAPES ARD 500 J/KG...THEREFORE I'VE LEFT A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN
FCST.

WED NGT/THU WL FEATURE ULVL S/W REMAINING FURTHER N IN CANADA BUT STL
ENUF TO HELP DELIVER COLDER AIR AHD OF NXT SFC HIGH FM CANADA. I'VE
LEFT SLGT CHC -SHRA FOR ANY SFC LIFT FM CAA MVG INTO FA WED NGT/ERLY
THU AND AVBL LLVL MOISTURE AHD OF IT. CLDS/SHRA WL BE SUPPRESSED TO
SE DRG THU AS CNDN SFC HIGH AND DRIER AIR PUSH INTO FA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
ULVL RDG AND CNDN SFC HIGH IN CONTROL THU NGT/FRI THEN A SRN STREAM
LOW LIFTS AND BCMS CAPTURED BY NRN STREAM TO BRG ABT -SHRA FOR THE
WKND. NO CHGS TO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KBTV/KMPV THRU ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW-SCT(LOW
AND HIGH CLDS) EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BKN LOW CLD DECK
AFT 02-03Z W/ POSSIBLE SPRINKLES. VSBY UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS
INCR 10 TO 20KTS FROM SOUTH AHEAD OF FRNT. VFR COND EXPECTED THRU
01Z-02Z AT KMSS/KSLK. SCT LOW CLD DECK 030-040 AND
SCT-BKN100-120...W/ MVFR/VFR COND AFT 01Z-02Z W/ BKN025 BKN035 IN
4-5SM -SHRA BR....POSSIBLY DOWN TO 2-3SM -RA BY 06Z FOR IFR/MVFR
COND. WINDS LIGHT...BECMG SSW AFT 14Z 10 TO 20KTS W/ SOME GUSTS NEAR
25KTS. AREAS HIR TRRN OBSCD AFT 00Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JN





FXUS61 KBTV 100205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
RIDGE ALOFT IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KALY AND CWMW SHOW DRY LOW
LEVELS WITH DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WHICH SHOULD BE THE
LOWS TONIGHT. GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 426 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS LATE.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
MOISTURE WHEN THIS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...SO WILL JUST
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SFC FRNT PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS AS STRONG HIGH
PRES LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY BUILDS TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE
COMBINATION OF CAA AND NORTHERLY FLOW WL MENTION TEMPS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE AS LLVL WAA
DEVELOP BY 00Z FRIDAY ON BACK SIDE. WL INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON PROGGED 85H TEMPS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA WL PRODUCE CHC POPS SAT
MORNING BEFORE WARM FRNT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...AS A
COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN FA LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY WL INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS
MARGINALLY ATTM GIVEN FROPA TIMING AND LIMITED SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SE SFC FLW. FRNT STALLS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRNT PARALLELING THE ULVL
FLW COULD RESULT IN A WAVES OF RAIN IMPACTING OUR FA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS AOB NORMAL LVLS.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACRS THE CPV THIS AFTN PER LATEST
SATL PICS. VFR WL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF
SITES...HAVE MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR CIGS AT MPV BTWN 08-12 PER
LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILE. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLVL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BELOW LLVL TEMP INVERSION. OTHERWISE...WINDS WL BECM LIGHT THIS
EVENING AROUND 00Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON






FXUS61 KBTV 092026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS LATE.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
MOISTURE WHEN THIS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...SO WILL JUST
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SFC FRNT PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS AS STRONG HIGH
PRES LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY BUILDS TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE
COMBINATION OF CAA AND NORTHERLY FLOW WL MENTION TEMPS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE AS LLVL WAA
DEVELOP BY 00Z FRIDAY ON BACK SIDE. WL INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON PROGGED 85H TEMPS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA WL PRODUCE CHC POPS SAT
MORNING BEFORE WARM FRNT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...AS A
COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN FA LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY WL INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS
MARGINALLY ATTM GIVEN FROPA TIMING AND LIMITED SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SE SFC FLW. FRNT STALLS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRNT PARALLELING THE ULVL
FLW COULD RESULT IN A WAVES OF RAIN IMPACTING OUR FA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS AOB NORMAL LVLS.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACRS THE CPV THIS AFTN PER LATEST
SATL PICS. VFR WL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF
SITES...HAVE MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR CIGS AT MPV BTWN 08-12 PER
LATEST BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILE. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLVL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BELOW LLVL TEMP INVERSION. OTHERWISE...WINDS WL BECM LIGHT THIS
EVENING AROUND 00Z.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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