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Expires:200505122200;;027562
FPUS51 KBTV 120752
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-122200-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
350 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2005

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING SUNNY. WINDY.
COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COLDER
WITH LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY THEN
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF FROST IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40.
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE
OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 120750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
COLD CNDN HIGH N OF GRT LAKES CONT TO PUSH SE TOWARD FA BUT STG
COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND INCRSG PRS GRADIENT WL ACCNT FOR A WINDY
AND MUCH COLDER DAY ACRS FA. THE TIMING OF CLDS WL BE TOUGH IN
MRNG BUT MAINLY SKC THIS AFTN-TNGT.

PRS GRADIENT SLACKENS AS SFC HIGH MVS ACRS FA FOR A VRY COLD NGT
WITH SUB-FRZG ALL ZONES WITH L-TEENS/20S AND FROSTY.

SFC HIGH AND ULVL RDG ACRS FA FRI FOR ANTHR SUNNY...DRY DAY AHD OF
ANTHR UNSETTLED WKND.

ULVL/SFC RDG DEPART ALLOWING SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT HAS MVD INTO
S RVR VLY TO RIDE NE ACRS ERN GRT LAKES WITH WRM FNTL BNDRY APPCHG
FA BY SAT MRNG. THE GRTST THREAT OF -SHRA ACTVTY WL BE NRN NY MVG
NE ACRS NRN VT BTWN 06-15Z THEN IT APPEARS A LULL BFR NRN STREAM S/W
SPINS UP ANTHR SFC LOW AND BCMS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PERHAPS STEADIER
RAINS SAT NGT/SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ABV SYSTEM MVS E WITH H5 UPR LOW STL ACRS ERN CANADA AND
CYCLONIC...UNSETTLED FLOW ACRS FA THRU ERLY NXT WK BFR A PSBL ZONAL
DRY FLOW BY MID WK.


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOR ALL SITES W/ LOW CLD DECK MVG SOUTH OVER AREA. NNW WINDS
INCR FROM 5 TO 15 KTS TO 10-20 KTS. ALL SITES VFR COND AFT 12Z W/
SOME LOW CLD SCT-BKN035-040 ESPECIALLY OVR KSLK. WINDS OUT OF NNW
FOR ALL SITES 10-20KTS W/ SOME GUSTS TO 25KTS. WINDS BECOME NEAR
LIGHT AND VAR AFT 22Z-00Z FROM WEST TO EAST W/ SKIES MAINLY CLR W/
AREAS FEW035. NO PRECIP. VSBY UNRESTRICTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WL BE A BREEZY/WINDY DAY ACRS FA WITH LOW MINIMUM RH IN THE
10-20 PERCENTILES. IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR THE PAST WK WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING 0.1-0.2" JUST YDY/LAST NGT. STATE FIRE OFFICIALS (NY/VT)
STL CONSIDER AREA IN "PRE-GREENUP" STAGE, THUS RED FLAG CRITERIA
MET IN MOST LOCALES. HWVR...COORD WITH SAME OFFICIALS SUGGEST HOLDING
OFF AND AWAITING CONDITIONS DRG DAY YET XPCTD WX CONDS WL BE PAST
ALONG IN THE FIELD.

FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC...ANY FIRES/BRUSH BURNING HAVE THE PTNL TO
GET "OUT OF CONTROL" VRY FAST TDY...SO PLEASE DON'T BURN UNTIL WETTER
WX ARRIVES.

FRIDAY WL BE ANTHR DRY DAY BUT LESS WND WITH SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR
THE WKND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...SLW





FXUS61 KBTV 120200
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2005

.UPDATED SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE REFERENCES TO
THIS EVE/ERLY TNGT. FOR NRN NY AND THE CHAMPLN VLY OF VT...BCMG PTLY
CLDY LATE. FOR NC/NE VT CHC RN SHWR TIL MIDN THEN BCMG PTLY CLDY.

SFC CDFNT MOVG ACRS NRN VT ATTM...AND SHUD EXIT AREA AFTR MIDN.
RADAR INDCS SCT SHWRS EXITING CHAMPLN VLY ATTM AND MOVG ACRS NC/NE
VT THRU MIDN. SCT SHWRS HV BEEN GNRLY LIGHT WITH PCPN AMTS BTWN 0.10
AND 0.20 ACRS NRN NY AND NW VT.

SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN PREV AFD BELOW. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
VERY DRY WEATHER THURS THUS ANY DEAD WOOD OR DEBRIES IN FORESTS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.

SFH

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 510 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2005)

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TO BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH TEENS EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED WIDESPREAD
FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ZONES. HAVE NOT ISSUED A FROST OR FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING...BECAUSE LOCAL OFFICE POLICY DOES NOT START THE
GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY UNTIL MAY 20...BUT WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE ZONE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WARM TEMPERATURES
OF TODAY AND YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR FCST WITH THIS PACKAGE
IN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS. MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT
REGION SAT NT INTO SUNDAY. WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG
MOST RECENT MED RANGE OP/ENSEMBLE RUNS WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD HERE. SFC SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST LATER SUNDAY...BUT W/LINGERING UPPER TROUGH/DYNAMICS ACROSS
AREA...WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO REGION...THUS MAINLY PC/PS AND DRY CONDS EXPECTED FOR
TUE/WED TIME FRAME. TEMPS TO REMAIN WITHIN 5 DEG OF MID MAY NORMAL
MAX/MIN VALUES DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS. SFC COLD FRONT INVOF SLV LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO REGION. SCT TO WDLY SCT SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC BNDRY. DUE TO LESS THAN
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY HAVE OPTED TO GO MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
CIG/VIS CRITERIA AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THOUGH IN
HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR CONDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SFC
FRONT TO CLEAR ALL AREAS BY 04Z WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 10-20KT
DEVELOPING OVRNT. POST-FRONTAL BKN-OVC CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
AREA THROUGH 06Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY MTN LOCALES.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 25 KT TO THEN CONTINUE DURING 12-18Z
TIME FRAME THURSDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY...
COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL PRODUCE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 30 PERCENT EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
FIRE WEATHER...WGH
======================

UPDATE SFH







FXUS61 KBTV 112110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
510 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TO BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH TEENS EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED WIDESPREAD
FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ZONES. HAVE NOT ISSUED A FROST OR FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING...BECAUSE LOCAL OFFICE POLICY DOES NOT START THE
GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY UNTIL MAY 20...BUT WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE ZONE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WARM TEMPERATURES
OF TODAY AND YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR FCST WITH THIS PACKAGE
IN SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS. MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT
REGION SAT NT INTO SUNDAY. WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG
MOST RECENT MED RANGE OP/ENSEMBLE RUNS WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD HERE. SFC SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST LATER SUNDAY...BUT W/LINGERING UPPER TROUGH/DYNAMICS ACROSS
AREA...WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO REGION...THUS MAINLY PC/PS AND DRY CONDS EXPECTED FOR
TUE/WED TIME FRAME. TEMPS TO REMAIN WITHIN 5 DEG OF MID MAY NORMAL
MAX/MIN VALUES DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS. SFC COLD FRONT INVOF SLV LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO REGION. SCT TO WDLY SCT SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC BNDRY. DUE TO LESS THAN
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY HAVE OPTED TO GO MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
CIG/VIS CRITERIA AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THOUGH IN
HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR CONDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SFC
FRONT TO CLEAR ALL AREAS BY 04Z WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 10-20KT
DEVELOPING OVRNT. POST-FRONTAL BKN-OVC CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
AREA THROUGH 06Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY MTN LOCALES.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 25 KT TO THEN CONTINUE DURING 12-18Z
TIME FRAME THURSDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY...
COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL PRODUCE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 30 PERCENT EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
FIRE WEATHER...WGH





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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