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Expires:200505132000;;051028
FPUS51 KBTV 130655
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-132000-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 60.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 130718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A COLD START FOR THE FA WITH PSBL RECORD TMPS BY SUNRISE WITH TMPS
ALRDY UPR TEENS TO M30S ACRS FA AT 3 AM.

SFC HI ACRS FA TDY WITH ULVL RDG MVG OVRHD AS WELL. BRIGHT SS...MILDER
AND LGTR WNDS THAN YDY.

SFC THEN ULVL RDG SLIDE E OF FA TNGT...ALLOWING MIDWEST SFC LOW TO MV
NE INTO ONTARIO. DECENT WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF H7-H5
RDG...THUS AS AXIS PASSES CLDS QUICKLY LWR AND SHRA THREAT INCREASES.
CLIMATOLOGY OF THIS TRACK SUGGESTS HIGHEST QPF AND THREAT OF SHRA WL
BE NRN NY...THEN NRN VT WITH SRN VT (ESP LWR CT RVR VLY) NOT SEEING
MUCH IF AT ALL PRIOR TO 12Z SAT.

ON SAT...A SLGT RETROGRESSION ON THE FOCUS OF WAA WL FIRST LEAD TO GNRL
WAA AND CHC -SHRA BUT THEN MAINLY DRY AND REFOCUSING TOWARD GRT LAKES.

NRN STREAM S/W DROPPING ACRS NRN MS RVR VLY WL RE-AMPLIFY ULVL RDG ACRS FA
SAT AFTN AND ONTARIO SFC LOW BCMS ELONGATED BACK TOWARD ULVL SUPPORT.

SAT NGT...THIS "RENEWED...ENERGIZED" SFC LOW WL MV TOWARD FA WITH A MORE
FOCUSED WAA PTRN WITH THE AIRMASS MORE SATURATED DUE TO THE FIRST WAVE
AND SHRA LKLY TIL OCCLUSION MVS THRU MIDDAY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPR LOW ASSOC WITH ABV SYSTEM WL ROTATE IN PLACE DELIVERING COLDER
AIR...ESP ALOFT AND ROUNDS OF S/W FOR INSTABILITY -SHRA SUN NGT THRU MON
AND HANGIN' ARD INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES THRU ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SKC THRU
16Z-18Z...SCT150 KMSS-KSLK...SPREADING EAST THRU REST OF PERIOD. NO
PRECIP. WINDS LIGHT LESS THAN 10KTS ALL SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANTHR DRY DAY ACRS FA...ACTUALLY DRIER THAN YDY WITH RH IN THE 10S/20S
PERCENTILES. THERE WL BE A "REFRESHING" WIND (10-15MPH) BUT NOT LIKE
YDY. THEREFORE...NO RFW OR HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...SLW





FXUS61 KBTV 130245 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...
PERFECT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
RAPIDLY...AS FORECAST.  SENT UPDATED ZONES WHICH DIDN'T REALLY
CAHNGE THE VALUES OF ANY PARAMETERS, BUT DID EMPHASIZE THE FREEZING
CONDITIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 13TH. SINCE OUR DESIGNATED
GROWING SEASON DOESN'T BEGIN UNTIL MAY 20TH, THESE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES REQUIRE NO HEADLINED WARNING PRODUCTS, BUT HAVE BEEN
EMPHASIZED IN THE ZONES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS TO BUILD DOWN ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU EARLY ON FRI NITE.
STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON FRI NITE AND SAT...
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CF MOVING ACRS THE FA ON SAT NITE AND SUN.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND FOR MUCH OF FRI AND
SUN...WITH WAA FOR MUCH OF FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. DECENT LOW-LVL
MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE AND SAT. SOME
LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON FRI NITE...WITH BETTER LOW-LVL MSTR
ACRS THE FA ON SAT THRU SUN. LOW-LVL-LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA
ON FRI AFTERNOON. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE
THRU MUCH OF SAT NITE...WITH SOME LINGERING MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA
ON SUN. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.5-1" ON FRI NITE AND
AROUND AN INCH ON SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN.

WX APPEARS TO BE NIL ACRS THE FA THRU MUCH OF FRI. SOME SCT PCPN TO
DEVELOP ACRS THE FA BY LATER ON FRI NITE AND INTO SAT. WILL STICK
WITH CHC POPS IN THIS TIME-FRAME. BETTER CHCS FOR SOME SHRA ACRS THE
FA ON SAT NITE AND SUN WITH BETTER AVAILABLE DEEPER MSTR AND FORCING.
THERE LOOKS TO BE AN OUTSIDE CHC AT SOME (ELEVATED?) CONVECTION ACRS
THE FA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT WITH LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING
CAPES VERY LOW ACRS THE FA THEN WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR
NOW.

T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR TEENS-L20S TONITE AND IN THE 30S FRI NITE.
T1MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 60F ON FRI AND IN THE U50S ON SAT. FROST STILL
APPEARS TO BE A VERY GOOD BET ACRS THE FA TONITE. FYI...THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HERE AT WFO BTV STARTS ON MAY 20TH.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RATHER UNSETTLED CONDS ALONG W/PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS NOW LOOK MORE
LIKELY TO TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING MUCH OF EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF FCST. SEVERAL FEATURES SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WHICH
INCLUDE A WEAK THOUGH COUPLED POS PNA/NEG NAO PATTERN EVOLVING...AS
WELL AS STRONG GREENLAND/DAVIS BLOCKING DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN GENERAL ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SOLN ALBEIT
WITH VARYING DETAILS. MAIN WEATHER PLAYER DURING SUN THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD WILL BE DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS AND MEAN POSITION OF CLOSED
LOW/UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM
DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME. 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS WOULD OFFER A
MEAN POSITION TO THE EAST OF THE FA...WHEREAS 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
FEATURE TO LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD. WITH NEW 06Z GFS GUIDANCE NOW SLOWLY
TRENDING TOWARDS EURO SOLN...WOULD HAVE TO LEND CREDENCE TO AN
UNSETTLED AND RATHER COOL PATTERN PERSISTING HERE. THUS MEAN SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL OFFER CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND PERIODIC
SHOWERY EPISODES. TEMPS TO FALL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HRS AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP REGION. THUS WILL OFFER CLR SKIES THROUGHOUT
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...
THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT GRADIENT WIND FROM THE CHAMP
VLY EAST. WINDS TO GO LT AND VRB ACROSS NRN NY STATE AFT 03Z. THEN
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON TAP AFT 14Z TOMORROW.

FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH NY/VT FORESTRY OFFICIALS...OPTED TO ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLITE THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACRS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON. GRASSES ACRS THE FA HAVE APPARENTLY GREENED UP WITH THE
HIR TRRN FORESTS LAGGING BEHIND. ANY DEAD DRY FUELS ARE MOST AT RISK
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT BURNING...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. UPON RECEIVING
FURTHER INFO FROM THE VT DEPT OF FORESTS...PARKS...AND RECREATION...
MAY ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATED STATEMENT ON THE FIRE DANGER SITUATION.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BELL
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JMG







FXUS61 KBTV 121926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS TO BUILD DOWN ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU EARLY ON FRI NITE.
STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON FRI NITE AND SAT...
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CF MOVING ACRS THE FA ON SAT NITE AND SUN.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND FOR MUCH OF FRI AND
SUN...WITH WAA FOR MUCH OF FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. DECENT LOW-LVL
MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE AND SAT. SOME
LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON FRI NITE...WITH BETTER LOW-LVL MSTR
ACRS THE FA ON SAT THRU SUN. LOW-LVL-LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA
ON FRI AFTERNOON. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE
THRU MUCH OF SAT NITE...WITH SOME LINGERING MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA
ON SUN. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.5-1" ON FRI NITE AND
AROUND AN INCH ON SAT THRU MUCH OF SUN.

WX APPEARS TO BE NIL ACRS THE FA THRU MUCH OF FRI. SOME SCT PCPN TO
DEVELOP ACRS THE FA BY LATER ON FRI NITE AND INTO SAT. WILL STICK
WITH CHC POPS IN THIS TIME-FRAME. BETTER CHCS FOR SOME SHRA ACRS THE
FA ON SAT NITE AND SUN WITH BETTER AVAILABLE DEEPER MSTR AND FORCING.
THERE LOOKS TO BE AN OUTSIDE CHC AT SOME (ELEVATED?) CONVECTION ACRS
THE FA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT WITH LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING
CAPES VERY LOW ACRS THE FA THEN WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR
NOW.

T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR TEENS-L20S TONITE AND IN THE 30S FRI NITE.
T1MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 60F ON FRI AND IN THE U50S ON SAT. FROST STILL
APPEARS TO BE A VERY GOOD BET ACRS THE FA TONITE. FYI...THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HERE AT WFO BTV STARTS ON MAY 20TH.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RATHER UNSETTLED CONDS ALONG W/PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS NOW LOOK MORE
LIKELY TO TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING MUCH OF EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF FCST. SEVERAL FEATURES SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WHICH
INCLUDE A WEAK THOUGH COUPLED POS PNA/NEG NAO PATTERN EVOLVING...AS
WELL AS STRONG GREENLAND/DAVIS BLOCKING DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN GENERAL ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SOLN ALBEIT
WITH VARYING DETAILS. MAIN WEATHER PLAYER DURING SUN THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD WILL BE DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS AND MEAN POSITION OF CLOSED
LOW/UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM
DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME. 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS WOULD OFFER A
MEAN POSITION TO THE EAST OF THE FA...WHEREAS 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
FEATURE TO LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD. WITH NEW 06Z GFS GUIDANCE NOW SLOWLY
TRENDING TOWARDS EURO SOLN...WOULD HAVE TO LEND CREDENCE TO AN
UNSETTLED AND RATHER COOL PATTERN PERSISTING HERE. THUS MEAN SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL OFFER CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND PERIODIC
SHOWERY EPISODES. TEMPS TO FALL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HRS AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP REGION. THUS WILL OFFER CLR SKIES THROUGHOUT
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...
THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT GRADIENT WIND FROM THE CHAMP
VLY EAST. WINDS TO GO LT AND VRB ACROSS NRN NY STATE AFT 03Z. THEN
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON TAP AFT 14Z TOMORROW.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH NY/VT FORESTRY OFFICIALS...OPTED TO ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLITE THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACRS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON. GRASSES ACRS THE FA HAVE APPARENTLY GREENED UP WITH THE
HIR TRRN FORESTS LAGGING BEHIND. ANY DEAD DRY FUELS ARE MOST AT RISK
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT BURNING...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. UPON RECEIVING
FURTHER INFO FROM THE VT DEPT OF FORESTS...PARKS...AND RECREATION...
MAY ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATED STATEMENT ON THE FIRE DANGER SITUATION.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JMG




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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