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FPUS51 KBTV 080748
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-082100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING
TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
AROUND 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 080714
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG TODAY. HI PRESS RIDGE TO
BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY...ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU
MON NITE...THEN TO THE EAST OF THE FA ON TUE. A CF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS
THE GREAT LKS REGION ON TUE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
00-01Z 13KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE
M40S-M60S ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH N-NE SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25 KTS. T1MAX
TEMPS ARE 60-65F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED
ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA
TODAY THRU MON. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TO BE 0.3-0.8" TODAY. RUC SHOWS
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA (FROM EAST TO WEST)...WITH
JUST SOME WIDELY SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE ACRS ERN VT.

WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND ON MON THRU TUE...WITH
WK WAA ON TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE
FA TONITE AND ON TUE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA FOR
THE NEXT 3 AFTERNOONS. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MAINLY VT TODAY.
CAPES ACRS THE FA TO BE AOB 400 J/KG ON TUE.

IR SAT PIX SHOW PLENTY OF CLDS ACRS THE MUCH OF THE FA ATTM.
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME LT RETURNS ACRS E-SE VT ATTM. HAVE GONE
WITH JUST SCHC POPS ACRS E-SE VT FOR TODAY FOR ANY -SHRA THAT ROTATE
ACRS THIS REGION. THE REST OF THE FA (AND THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD)
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP MSTR OR FORCING. T1MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE U30S-L40S TONITE AND 40-50F ON MON NITE. T1MAX TEMPS
ARE 70-75F ON MON. FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/WINDS ACRS THE REST OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD BASED ON THIS DATA AND THE LATEST FWC/MAV DATA.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 AM.

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK WESTWARD ACRS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.  WITH A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT KMPV...
KBTV...AND KSLK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS HOWEVER...BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FEET...WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
WILL EXIST TODAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 080713
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG TODAY. HI PRESS RIDGE TO
BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY...ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU
MON NITE...THEN TO THE EAST OF THE FA ON TUE. A CF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS
THE GREAT LKS REGION ON TUE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
00-01Z 13KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE
M40S-M60S ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH N-NE SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25 KTS. T1MAX
TEMPS ARE 60-65F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED
ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA
TODAY THRU MON. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TO BE 0.3-0.8" TODAY. RUC SHOWS
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA (FROM EAST TO WEST)...WITH
JUST SOME WIDELY SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE ACRS ERN VT.

WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND ON MON THRU TUE...WITH
WK WAA ON TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE
FA TONITE AND ON TUE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA FOR
THE NEXT 3 AFTERNOONS. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MAINLY VT TODAY.
CAPES ACRS THE FA TO BE AOB 400 J/KG ON TUE.

IR SAT PIX SHOW PLENTY OF CLDS ACRS THE MUCH OF THE FA ATTM.
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME LT RETURNS ACRS E-SE VT ATTM. HAVE GONE
WITH JUST SCHC POPS ACRS E-SE VT FOR TODAY FOR ANY -SHRA THAT ROTATE
ACRS THIS REGION. THE REST OF THE FA (AND THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD)
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP MSTR OR FORCING. T1MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE U30S-L40S TONITE AND 40-50F ON MON NITE. T1MAX TEMPS
ARE 70-75F ON MON. FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/WINDS ACRS THE REST OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD BASED ON THIS DATA AND THE LATEST FWC/MAV DATA.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 AM.

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK WESTWARD ACRS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.  WITH A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT KMPV...
KBTV...AND KSLK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS HOWEVER...BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FEET...WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
WILL EXIST TODAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 080208
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2005

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT OUT UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS WITH A FEW FIRST PERIOD
CHANGES...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. HAVE RAISED
POPS FOR ALL OF EASTERN VERMONT TO LIKELY...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. TAPERED POPS FROM EAST TO WEST ACRS VT...WHICH
RESULTS IN CHC POPS FOR NC VT AND SLITE CHC FOR CHMPLN VLY. STILL
NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO NY ZONES OVERNIGHT...WHERE
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FCST ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 408 PM EDT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER WITH WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH GFS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND APPROACHING THE ADIRONDACKS...WHILE NAM...NGM AND CANADIAN
MODELS KEEP WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WILL GO WITH THE NAM MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD
TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
POPS LOOK TOO HIGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO HAVE GONE BELOW THESE
VALUES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING WARMER ON MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST WILL MAKE FOR A
SUNNY WARM DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC
WILL BRING GOOD WAA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
850 TEMPS BOTH DAYS ABOVE +10C MAKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. ALONG WITH GOOD WAA ON WEDNESDAY LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE HIGH WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES 500 TO 1000 AND LI/S -2 TO -3
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF OUR FIRST REAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF THE SEASON. COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE
WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS SEASON
NORMALS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND VSBY TO REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BKN/OVC DECK OVER EASTERN VERMONT WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT
WITH CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BECOME BKN/OVC AFTER 21Z. LOW LEVEL BKN/OVC
DECK WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN KBTV...WITH MID LEVEL
BROKEN DECK EXPECTED AT KSLK BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH TOMORROW MIDDAY. KMSS WILL REMAIN SKC AS CLOUDS FROM COASTAL
LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT SLV.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








FXUS61 KBTV 072008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER WITH WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH GFS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND APPROACHING THE ADIRONDACKS...WHILE NAM...NGM AND CANADIAN
MODELS KEEP WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WILL GO WITH THE NAM MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD
TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
POPS LOOK TOO HIGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO HAVE GONE BELOW THESE
VALUES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING WARMER ON MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST WILL MAKE FOR A
SUNNY WARM DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC
WILL BRING GOOD WAA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
850 TEMPS BOTH DAYS ABOVE +10C MAKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. ALONG WITH GOOD WAA ON WEDNESDAY LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE HIGH WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPES 500 TO 1000 AND LI/S -2 TO -3
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF OUR FIRST REAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF THE SEASON. COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE
WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS SEASON
NORMALS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND VSBY TO REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BKN/OVC DECK OVER EASTERN VERMONT WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT
WITH CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BECOME BKN/OVC AFTER 21Z. LOW LEVEL BKN/OVC
DECK WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN KBTV...WITH MID LEVEL
BROKEN DECK EXPECTED AT KSLK BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH TOMORROW MIDDAY. KMSS WILL REMAIN SKC AS CLOUDS FROM COASTAL
LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT SLV.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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