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Expires:200505142200;;076462
FPUS51 KBTV 140753
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-142200-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 50. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 60.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 140723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

FCST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP CHCS/TIMING...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK

.SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX PATTERN CONTS TO EVOLVE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC/NE STATES AND DEVELOPING TROF
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF WAA LIFT AND POTENT 5H
VORT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN PA ATTM.
HOWEVER...TRW ACTIVITY IS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES INTO RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACRS CENTRAL NY/PA
ATTM. MENAWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 5H VORT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WL CONT TO DROP SOUTH AND DIG MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL HELP SET UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND SCT RW FROM TIME TO TIME.

OTHERWISE...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRES NORTH OF DTW WITH A SFC
WARM FRNT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NY ATTM WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH. RADAR TRENDS CONT TO SHOW THE CONVECTION
ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY DECREASING AS LLVL BECMG STABLE FROM THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY DRY SFC DWPT POINTS. WL CONT TO MONITIOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR TIMING OF RW INTO SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL MOSICA SHOWS -RW FROM JUST WEST OF MSS INTO THE BUF AREA
ATTM WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS LLVL WAA LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES INTO
OUR FA FROM SW TO NE. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS GOOD 850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...ALNG WITH SOME 7H FGEN FORCING AND PWS APPROACHING
1.00 INCH. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW INITIAL 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED 7H
MOISTURE/LIFT FALLING APART ACRS NORTHERN NY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
RIDGE AND VERY LOW SFC DWPTS. ANOTHER 5H VORT ROUNDS TROF BASE AND
EJECTS INTO FA THIS AFTN ON SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
WAA LIFT WL MENTION HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS MOST LOCATION.
PROGGED 85H TMEPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT
WITH LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL FROM CLOUDS/PRECIP WL MENTION TEMPS
U50S NE KINGDOM TO L60S ELSEWHERE. LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
NUMBERICAL GUIDANCE WITH MAV SUGGESTING 60F AT BTV AND NAM SHOWINGS
A HIGH OF 70F. WL TREND TOWARD COOLER MAV GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS
YESTERDAY AND PROGGED RH FIELDS

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W'S ROTATE AROUND TROF
BASE. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS...BUT FEEL DURATION OF
PRECIP WL BE LIMITED BASED ON FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES. GIVEN
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP EXPECT LIMITED DURINAL CHANGE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY NITE. SUNDAY...TROF CONTS TO IMPACT FA WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT. NAM 12 SHOWS SOME LLVL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
THE CPV ON SUNDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. SFC
BASED CAPES APPROACH 800 J/KG...ALONG WITH NEGATIVE LI'S...BUT FEEL
INSTABILITY IS OVERDONE BASED ON EXPECTED HEATING THE MODEL IS
PRODUCING FROM BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. WL MENTION JUST RW ATTM AND
WL BRIEF DAYSHIFT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR TRW ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
5H VORT AND SFC COLD FRNT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON PROGGED 85H TEMPS AND POSITION OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCAITED COOL POOL WL CONT TO MENTION TEMPS
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W'S BECMGS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...BUT FEEL BEST CHC FOR RW WL BE AFTN/EVENING
TIME PERIOD...WHEN SFC HEATING IS THE BEST. CRNT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL AND SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE 15Z-18Z
TIME RANGE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS
AND MIST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 22Z-02Z
TIME RANGE WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH






FXUS61 KBTV 140134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
928 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...

WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO REMOVE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT. WILL ALSO
TWEAK UP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGRS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY WITH WINDS
BCMNG LITE SE.

SFC FNTL BNDRY SRN LK MI TO LK ERIE MARKS LINE BTWN VERY STABLE
AIR WEL NE OF FNT AND AIR MASS WITH INCRSNG TEMPS/HUMIDITY AND
DCRSG STBLTY SW OF BNDRY WITH BRISK H/8 SW FLO NOTED. WL NEED
TO MONITOR MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE THIS WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO
TSTM POT.

RADAR ECHOES MOVG ACRS ERN LK ONT INTO NRN NY ATTM ERODING AS
THEY MOV INTO H/5 RDG AND DRY/STABLE AIR...WITH MSTLY MID CLDS
RESULTING. AT 00Z ALY SOUNDING FAIRLY DRY WHILE BUF SOUNDING HAS
MOISTENED AT AND ABV 850 MB.

HOWEVER...MSTR WL INCRS ACRS OUR AREA AFTR MIDN...THUS CURRENT
FCST OF BCMG CLDY WITH CHC SHWR(S) TWD MRNG LKS GOOD. GREATEST
THREAT FOR A SHOWER IS ACRS NRN NY INTO CHAMPLN VLY OF VT...BUT
STILL AFTR MIDN.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...

MID AND HI CLDS INCRSG ACRS AREA ATTM WITH VFR CONDS CONTG THRU
06Z. CIGS WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE RGN AFTER 06Z AS
WRMFNTL BNDRY VCNTY LK ERIE SLWLY APPRCHS THE RGN. THUS AFT 08Z
CHC 5-6SM -SHRA OVC ARND 3K FT. AFTR 12Z EXPECT OVC030 5SM -SHRA
WITH AREAS OVC015 3SM -SHRA BR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 342 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TONITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE
GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND ON SAT...THEN ACRS SRN CANADA ON SAT NITE
THRU SUN NITE. FRONTAL SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON SUN
AND SUN NITE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU SAT NITE...THEN WK CAA
ON SUN/SUN NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA
TONITE THRU SAT NITE...WITH WEAKER LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION ON
SUN NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA BY LATER TONITE RIGHT
THRU SUN NITE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON SUN NITE.
SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE THRU SAT NITE AND AGAIN ON
SUN NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO INCREASE TO 0.5-1" BY LATER
TONITE (AND AGAIN ON SUN/SUN NITE) AND BE 1-1.25" ON SAT/SAT NITE.

SAT PIX SHOW SOME CLDS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST
ATTM. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PCPN MOVING ACRS ONT ATTM. SOME
-SHRA/CLDS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOSTLY THE WRN FA BY LATER TONITE.
-SHRA EXPECTED BASICALLY ANYTIME OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T RAIN ALL THE TIME. WILL STICK WITH THE BEST CHC FOR ANY
SHRA ON SAT NITE...WITH SCT POPS OTRW. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA STILL
LOOK TO BE NIL...SO WILL CONT TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSRA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR LTG TRENDS THOUGH. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY
IN THE 30S TONITE AND 40-50F ON SAT NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND
60F ON SAT AND 60-65F ON SUN.

PLEASE DISREGARD ALL LIQUID PCPN REPORTS FROM KSLK TODAY...OUR ETS
WERE OUT THERE FIXING SOME EQUIPMENT TODAY. KTYX HAD SOME PROBLEMS
EARLIER...BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE RESOLVED. OUR RERBTV/S FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE A FEW RECORD LOW TEMP UPDATES IN THEM.

PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH
IS ASSOCD WITH SYSTEM IMPACTING FA THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY EARLY MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACRS FA THRU WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOVE OFF THE SRN
NEW CST ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE A LOT OF CLDS...BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...AND A CHC OF SHWRS THRU THU. DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OH VLY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THRU 06Z WITH SKC-SCT150 THRU 23Z...
LOWERING TO BKN-OVC100-150 BTWN 00Z-06Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE RGN AFTER 06Z AS WARM FRONT APPRCHS THE
RGN. AFT 08Z EXPECT OCNL 5-6SM -SHRA BKN-OVC035-045. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME PREVAILING AFTER 11Z WITH CONDITIONS OCNLY LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR AT KMSS/KSLK AFT 14Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS

$$

UPDATE SHORT TERM...SFH
UPDATE AVIATION...SFH




FXUS61 KBTV 131942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TONITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE
GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND ON SAT...THEN ACRS SRN CANADA ON SAT NITE
THRU SUN NITE. FRONTAL SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON SUN
AND SUN NITE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU SAT NITE...THEN WK CAA
ON SUN/SUN NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA
TONITE THRU SAT NITE...WITH WEAKER LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION ON
SUN NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA BY LATER TONITE RIGHT
THRU SUN NITE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON SUN NITE.
SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE THRU SAT NITE AND AGAIN ON
SUN NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO INCREASE TO 0.5-1" BY LATER
TONITE (AND AGAIN ON SUN/SUN NITE) AND BE 1-1.25" ON SAT/SAT NITE.

SAT PIX SHOW SOME CLDS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST
ATTM. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PCPN MOVING ACRS ONT ATTM. SOME
-SHRA/CLDS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOSTLY THE WRN FA BY LATER TONITE.
-SHRA EXPECTED BASICALLY ANYTIME OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T RAIN ALL THE TIME. WILL STICK WITH THE BEST CHC FOR ANY
SHRA ON SAT NITE...WITH SCT POPS OTRW. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA STILL
LOOK TO BE NIL...SO WILL CONT TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSRA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR LTG TRENDS THOUGH. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY
IN THE 30S TONITE AND 40-50F ON SAT NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND
60F ON SAT AND 60-65F ON SUN.

PLEASE DISREGARD ALL LIQUID PCPN REPORTS FROM KSLK TODAY...OUR ETS
WERE OUT THERE FIXING SOME EQUIPMENT TODAY. KTYX HAD SOME PROBLEMS
EARLIER...BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE RESOLVED. OUR RERBTV/S FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE A FEW RECORD LOW TEMP UPDATES IN THEM.

PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 PM.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH
IS ASSOCD WITH SYSTEM IMPACTING FA THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY EARLY MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACRS FA THRU WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOVE OFF THE SRN
NEW CST ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE A LOT OF CLDS...BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...AND A CHC OF SHWRS THRU THU. DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OH VLY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THRU 06Z WITH SKC-SCT150 THRU 23Z...
LOWERING TO BKN-OVC100-150 BTWN 00Z-06Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE RGN AFTER 06Z AS WARM FRONT APPRCHS THE
RGN. AFT 08Z EXPECT OCNL 5-6SM -SHRA BKN-OVC035-045. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME PREVAILING AFTER 11Z WITH CONDITIONS OCNLY LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR AT KMSS/KSLK AFT 14Z.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
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