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Expires:200505092100;;958621
FPUS51 KBTV 090934 AAA
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
530 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2005


VTZ003-006-008-016>018-092100-
ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
530 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50
PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 090723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SVRL FCST PRBLMS...BEGINNING WITH CLDS FM PESKY LOW E OF CC.
LOW CLD SHIELD LAST EVENING WAS BACK TO CHMPL VLY NY BUT HAS
ACTUALLY RETROGRADED A TAD INTO ERN ADRNDKS...THUS ERLY MRNG
SLY FCST WL BE TOUGH. THESE ABV AREAS WL LKLY WITNESS PTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MID-MRNG AND MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE
WRN SLOPES E WL SEE SLOW IMPRVMNT LTR MRNG AND THRU AFTN.

ULVL RDG AND WEAK SFC HIGH MVS ACRS FA TNGT AND THRU TUES WITH
A WRMG RETURN FLOW AND SOME MILKY SS AS LOTS OF MOISTURE/DEBRIS
COMING ACRS/THRU WRN SIDE OF RDG. H8 TMPS IN 11-12C RANGE WITH
NOT QUITE FULL SS AND TRAJ BASED IN OH...XPCT M-U70S FOR MOST
WITH L80S ST LWRNC VLY PSBL.

FIRST...DECAYING S/W PUSHES WEAK FNT INTO WRN FA LATE TUES
NGT/ERLY WED WITH SOME MOISTURE STREAMING ALG BNDRY THAT CUD
GENERATE SOME -SHRA IN WRN FA BFR 12Z WED.

THIS BNDRY WITH ULVL SUPPORT COMING THRU AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCT -SHRA AND CHC -TSRA BUT
DON'T FEEL AS CONFIDENT AS IT LOOKS LIKE NXT UPSTREAM S/W MORE
POWERFUL AND WL BRG COLD AIR INTO FA ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AS JUST ADVERTISED...WK FNT HANGS ACRS FA AWAITING UPSTREAM S/W
AND CAA TO PUSH ACRS FA ON THU. THERE WL BE A LULL IN DECAYING
-SHRA ACTVTY FM WEAK FNT AND THE ARRIVAL OF NXT SYSTEM ON THU...
WITH PERHAPS A CHC OF -SHRA BY DAYBRK THU IN WRN FA. ATTM...LOOKS
LIKE CD FNT WL BRG ABT -SHRA AND COOLER AIR FOR THU AND HAVE
ADJUSTED WED NGT/THU NGT FCST ACCORDINGLY.  OTHERWISE, NO CHGS TO
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR COND AT KBTV AND KMSS FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. UNRESTRICTED
VSBY W/ SOME SCATT LOW AND HI CLD. WINDS N(KBTV) AND NE(KMSS) DURING
DAY...BECMG LIGHT AND VAR AFT 23Z-00Z. KSLK AND KMPV WILL SOME SOME
MVFR COND THRU 12Z W/ LOW CLD DECK BLW 3KFT...VFR COND THERE AFTER.
NO PRECIP. WINDS N(KMPV) NE(KSLK) THRU 23Z-00Z...LIGHT AND VAR AFT.
SOME HIR TRRN OBSCD IN VT THRU 12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JN





FXUS61 KBTV 090113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
912 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
MINOR UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST TO TWEAK FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD SKY
COVER AND FIRST PERIOD WINDS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLEARING
WEST OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH PERSISTENT OVERCAST DECK EAST OF THE
LAKE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT EAST OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
BECOMING CLEAR BY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SKY
COVER FOR ABOVE THINKING AND ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN TONIGHT AS WINDS
HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

LAHIFF
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 420 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
OCEAN STORM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT TO SEA. LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT THIS TIME...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY APPROACHING 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHORTWAVE
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS TROF AND ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY APPROACHES OUR FA ON
WEDS. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING AND MENTION CHC POPS FOR
RW/TRW. CONVECTION PARAMETERS FOR SVR LOOK MARGINALLY ATTM.
HOWEVER...12Z GFS SUGGESTS A GOOD 7H THETA E AXIS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SFC FRNT...ALONG WITH PROGGED SFC DWPTS NEAR 60F. THIS
COMBINED WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
70S...HELPING ENHANCE LLVL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACRS OUR FA AND
INCREASING THE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES. GFS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES
AOB 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LLVL JET WL BE WELL WEST OF OUR
FA...ALONG WITH THE BEST 7H/5H JET COUPLETS...THEREFORE THE 0-3KM
AND 0-6KM CUMULATIVE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK AND SUGGEST LIMITED
FOR ORGANIZED SVR. GIVEN...THE PROGGED LLVL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS BELIEVE A WEAK/UNORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC FRNT WEDS AND MOVE THRU OUR
FA BY WEDS EVENING.

THURS-FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
THE EXACT POSITION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.
LATEST GFS STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED NORTHERN PLAINS MCS WEDS...WITH REMNANTS TRACKING INTO
OUR WESTERN FA BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG OLD SFC BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF PUSHES THIS SFC BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR FA AND SHOWS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR FA. WL TREND TOWARD
HPC/ECMWF SOLUTION ATTM GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AMONG THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...IF THE FLOW IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZN FEEL
SFC FRNT WL MAKE LIMITED PROGRESSION SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
RW/TRW WL INCREASE LATE THURS INTO FRI.

SAT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA AS SFC HIGH PRES
SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND
PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S. LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY WEAK SFC FRNT AND ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACH FA. WL MENTION
CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA ON SUNDAY.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)
VIS SATL PICS AND REGIONAL RADARS TELLS THE STORY THIS AFTN ACRS OUR
FA. CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES EAST OF
CAPE COD CONTS TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF -RA ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS. WL CONT TO MENTION TEMPO GROUPS AT MPV/BTV THRU
20Z FOR -RA BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLW
ACRS THE CPV. OTHERWISE...MSS WL SEE CLR SKIES AND WITH NE WINDS AT
10KT AND GUSTS TO 20KT. LATEST BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW CIGS LOWERING
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES TONIGHT. WL MENTION CIGS BTWN
020-030 FROM SLK TO MPV. FEEL CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR FA BY 14Z
MONDAY...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR LLVL MOISTURE GIVEN CYCLONIC/NW
UPSLOPE FLW ACRS THE CPV. FEEL VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY 15Z
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY SFC FLW CONTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






FXUS61 KBTV 082020
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
OCEAN STORM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT TO SEA. LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT THIS TIME...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY APPROACHING 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHORTWAVE
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS TROF AND ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY APPROACHES OUR FA ON
WEDS. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING AND MENTION CHC POPS FOR
RW/TRW. CONVECTION PARAMETERS FOR SVR LOOK MARGINALLY ATTM.
HOWEVER...12Z GFS SUGGESTS A GOOD 7H THETA E AXIS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SFC FRNT...ALONG WITH PROGGED SFC DWPTS NEAR 60F. THIS
COMBINED WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
70S...HELPING ENHANCE LLVL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACRS OUR FA AND
INCREASING THE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES. GFS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES
AOB 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LLVL JET WL BE WELL WEST OF OUR
FA...ALONG WITH THE BEST 7H/5H JET COUPLETS...THEREFORE THE 0-3KM
AND 0-6KM CUMULATIVE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK AND SUGGEST LIMITED
FOR ORGANIZED SVR. GIVEN...THE PROGGED LLVL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS BELIEVE A WEAK/UNORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC FRNT WEDS AND MOVE THRU OUR
FA BY WEDS EVENING.

THURS-FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
THE EXACT POSITION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.
LATEST GFS STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED NORTHERN PLAINS MCS WEDS...WITH REMNANTS TRACKING INTO
OUR WESTERN FA BY 00Z FRIDAY...ALONG OLD SFC BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF PUSHES THIS SFC BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR FA AND SHOWS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR FA. WL TREND TOWARD
HPC/ECMWF SOLUTION ATTM GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AMONG THE
MODELS. HOWEVER...IF THE FLOW IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZN FEEL
SFC FRNT WL MAKE LIMITED PROGRESSION SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
RW/TRW WL INCREASE LATE THURS INTO FRI.

SAT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA AS SFC HIGH PRES
SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND
PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S. LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY WEAK SFC FRNT AND ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACH FA. WL MENTION
CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)
VIS SATL PICS AND REGIONAL RADARS TELLS THE STORY THIS AFTN ACRS OUR
FA. CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES EAST OF
CAPE COD CONTS TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF -RA ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS. WL CONT TO MENTION TEMPO GROUPS AT MPV/BTV THRU
20Z FOR -RA BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLW
ACRS THE CPV. OTHERWISE...MSS WL SEE CLR SKIES AND WITH NE WINDS AT
10KT AND GUSTS TO 20KT. LATEST BUFKIT RH PROFILES SHOW CIGS LOWERING
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES TONIGHT. WL MENTION CIGS BTWN
020-030 FROM SLK TO MPV. FEEL CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR FA BY 14Z
MONDAY...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR LLVL MOISTURE GIVEN CYCLONIC/NW
UPSLOPE FLW ACRS THE CPV. FEEL VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY 15Z
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY SFC FLW CONTS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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