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Expires:200505172200;;145509
FPUS51 KBTV 170748
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-172200-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
350 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2005

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS 55 TO 60. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 60.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 170717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2005

FCST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP CHCS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LVL LOW CONTS TO SPIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS.
OTHERWISE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES IS PREVENTING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM SUB-TROPICAL JET
FROM ADVECTING INTO OUR FA. DEEP TROF CONTS TO DIG OUT WEST WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS POTENT DISTURBANCE AND
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS HELP ENHANCE LIFT ACRS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD AHEAD OF SYSTEM ACRS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATTM AND MAY WORK INTO OUR CWA BY THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...A VERY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING PATTERN CONTS ACRS THE
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL LOW ACRS EASTERN CANADA
WL CONT TO IMPACT FA THROUGH WEDS. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW AND STEEP 1000-800MB LAPSE RATES WL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SAT TRENDS FEEL SOME BREAKS WL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACRS CPV AND WESTERN ZNS AND WL
MENTION PC IN ZNS. OTHERWISE...SFC HEATING AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS/VERTICAL RH CROSS SECTIONS SHOW  PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN
1000-700MB...THEREFORE EXPECT LOW TOP CU TO DEVELOP. ONCE AGAIN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -2C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. TONITE...BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW POTENT 5H VORT
APPROACHING SLV BY 00Z AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY BY 06Z. BASED ON
850-700MB RH FIELDS AND PROGGED 7H OMEGA WL MENTION 30-40 POPS ACRS
OUR NORTHERN ZNS AND JUST SCHC FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. ONCE
AGAIN WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECT TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NITES
WITH U30S SLK/NE KINGDOM TO M/U40S CPV/SLV.

WEDS-THURS...MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY MOVES SE TOWARD NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS POTENT S/W ENERGY CONTS ACRS FA. GIVEN BEST 850-700MB IS
ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS FROM SLV TO
NE KINGDOM WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES ON WEDS.
85H TEMPS BTWN -1 AND 0C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L60S ONCE AGAIN.
THURS...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONFLUENCE IN THE ULVL PATTERN WL
PREVENT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FROM REACHING OUR FA. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS PA BACK INTO SOUTHERN MI.
MEANWHILE...S/W ENERGY CONTS TO ROTATE AROUND ULVL LOW ACRS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON THURS. THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES...GOOD MID LVL MOISTURE...AND COLD POOL ALOFT WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 2C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
L/M 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. EXPECT
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE CLOUD
BASES OF 035-045 MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH CLOUD
BASES OF 050-070 EXPECTED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH






FXUS61 KBTV 170216
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH POPPED
UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAS COME TO AN END AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO STABILIZE.  WILL THEREFORE REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  STILL QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS OVER THE REGION.  ANY BREAKS
MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC LOOK AS IF THEY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AS WELL.  WILL THEREFORE JUST MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

EVENSON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 320 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS SRN CANADA TONITE THRU TUE NITE. SFC HI PRESS
TO BUILD ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. UPR TROF TO
MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA ON TUE THRU AT LEAST WED NITE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
H85 TEMPS TO GO NEGATIVE ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 12Z TUE.
LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON WED
AFTERNOON THRU WED NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON
WED/WED NITE. NAM CAPES TO BE AOB 200 J/KG ACRS THE FA ON WED. PW
VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.4-0.5" THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME -SHRA MOVING EAST ACRS MOSTLY THE NRN
TIER ZONES ATTM. THIS PCPN SHOULD MOSTLY DIE OFF WITH THE SETTING
SUN. NEXT CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE NRN TIER
ZONES BY LATER ON TUE NITE AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA BY LATER ON WED AND INTO WED NITE. WILL STICK WITH CHC POPS
FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S TONITE AND ON
TUE NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 55-60F ON TUE AND WED. FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING TEMP/WIND GRIDS IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD BASED ON THIS DATA AND
THE LATEST MAV/FWC DATA.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 345 PM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACRS NEW ENG ON THURS AND
GRADUALLY HEADS OFFSHORE FRI THRU SUNDAY. EXPECT PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY
SKIES THURS THRU SATURDAY WITH CHC SHWRS EACH DAY...ALTHO CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION SUNDAY...AND THERE IS CHANCE THAT SHRTWV AND ASSOCD
SFC TROF MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CHC SHWRS. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED FOR
ONLY SLITE CHC POPS. UPPER LOW FAR ENOUGH EAST OF FA MONDAY SO THAT
WE CAN EXPECT A BRF PERIOD OF RIDGING RESULTING IN DRIER AND MILDER
CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECT
PREVAILING BKN035-045. EXCEPTION WILL BE KSLK WHERE CIGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO BKN020 BTWN 04Z-14Z. WIDELY SCT SHWRS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
VSBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 MILES. OVER WESTERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS THIS PM...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 00Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION....RJS




FXUS61 KBTV 161921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS SRN CANADA TONITE THRU TUE NITE. SFC HI PRESS
TO BUILD ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. UPR TROF TO
MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA ON TUE THRU AT LEAST WED NITE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
H85 TEMPS TO GO NEGATIVE ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 12Z TUE.
LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON WED
AFTERNOON THRU WED NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON
WED/WED NITE. NAM CAPES TO BE AOB 200 J/KG ACRS THE FA ON WED. PW
VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.4-0.5" THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME -SHRA MOVING EAST ACRS MOSTLY THE NRN
TIER ZONES ATTM. THIS PCPN SHOULD MOSTLY DIE OFF WITH THE SETTING
SUN. NEXT CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE NRN TIER
ZONES BY LATER ON TUE NITE AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA BY LATER ON WED AND INTO WED NITE. WILL STICK WITH CHC POPS
FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S TONITE AND ON
TUE NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 55-60F ON TUE AND WED. FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING TEMP/WIND GRIDS IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD BASED ON THIS DATA AND
THE LATEST MAV/FWC DATA.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
AROUND 345 PM.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACRS NEW ENG ON THURS AND
GRADUALLY HEADS OFFSHORE FRI THRU SUNDAY. EXPECT PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY
SKIES THURS THRU SATURDAY WITH CHC SHWRS EACH DAY...ALTHO CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION SUNDAY...AND THERE IS CHANCE THAT SHRTWV AND ASSOCD
SFC TROF MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CHC SHWRS. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED FOR
ONLY SLITE CHC POPS. UPPER LOW FAR ENOUGH EAST OF FA MONDAY SO THAT
WE CAN EXPECT A BRF PERIOD OF RIDGING RESULTING IN DRIER AND MILDER
CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THRU 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECT
PREVAILING BKN035-045. EXCEPTION WILL BE KSLK WHERE CIGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO BKN020 BTWN 04Z-14Z. WIDELY SCT SHWRS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
VSBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 MILES. OVER WESTERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS THIS PM...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 00Z.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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