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Expires:200507142100;;514661
FPUS51 KBTV 140715
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-142100-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
315 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS
AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS
AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
AROUND 80.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 140745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RW/TRW ON TAP FOR THE CWA AS FRNT/UPPER TROUGH WORK THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIP/THUNDER WORKING EAST
ACROSS N NY ATTM DISSIPATING TO RAIN AS IT MVS INTO NORTHERN VT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRETCHES WEST TO LK ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD ALL
PUSH EAST DURING COURSE OF DAY. BEST AREAS FOR ACTIVITY TDY WILL BE
IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE VERY FEW CLDS
PRESENT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT HIGHEST POPS THERE. SPC HAS PUT ENTIRE
CWA IN SL RISK TDY...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING IN VT AS
THIS AREA HAS NOT REALLY BEEN WORKED OVER YET BY PERSISTENT THUNDER
ACTIVITY...BUT SHOULD LATER TDY. UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK DOWN OVER
PORTIONS OF VT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...KEEPING CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO NIGHTIME HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT
IN GRIDS. TAPERING OFF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST AS RIDGE WORKS INTO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL GIVE AREA A DAY OF DRY WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST FRI/SAT MORN...ALLOWING FOR
SW/RETURN FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN MV OVER CWA...SETTING REGION UP WITH A
WARM/SUMMERLIKE EXTENDED. MDLS FOR SATURDAY PRECIP FROM DENNIS
REMNANTS STILL A BIT MIXED W/ GFS A BIT FAST. DID NOT GO EXACTLY W/
GFS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN GRIDS AND LIFT PRECIP
NE INTO CWA DURING COURSE OF DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
SW.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST LOOKS GD ATTM AND DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING
ANY CHANGES. REGION TO BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG SUMMER
RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS TO PUSH CLOSE TO 90F ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS THRU MIDWEEK. REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS LEFTOVER FROM "DENNIS"
LIFT NORTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCE FOR PRECIP/CONVECTION. SW FLOW W/ HIGH OFF
COAST WILL BRING IN ANOTHER SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE...FUELING CHANCE
FOR TS SAT/SUN. MDLS SHOW AFTNOON PRECIP FOR MONDAY INTO PART OF
EVENING AHEAD OF FRNT...WHICH IS FORECASTED TO MV THRU GREAT LKS
TUES...THEN INTO NORTHEAST TUES NGT INTO WED. LOW CHANCE POPS
MENTION FOR THIS EVENT LOOK GD ATTM AND WILL NOT CHANGE. SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED W/ THIS FRNT IS TRACKING THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN QUEBEC
DURING FROPA AND THIS COULD LIMIT DYNAMICS SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR LATER MDL RUNS.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.  FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT
18Z TODAY WILL HAVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...BUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FROM TIME TO
TIME.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AFT 20Z...WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY IN ANY OF THESE STORMS.  CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN HAVE A GENERAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON






FXUS61 KBTV 140206
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO KEEP IN MENTION
OF SHWRS/THNDSTRMS FOR ST LWR VLY FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WHILE THERE
ARE A FEW SHWRS/THNDSTRMS IN ST LWR VLY ATTM...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS AN MCS OVER ERN ONTARIO WHICH IS MOVG SLOWLY
SEWRD. IT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER PAST HR AS IT MOVES TOWARDS A
SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS CLOSE
ATTENTION. WILL LEAVE IN ENHANCED WORDING FOR THNDSTRMS FOR THE
OVRNGHT FOR ST LWR VLY...THE ADRNDKS AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
VT AND CHMPLN VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACRS FORECAST AREA THRU 06Z AND IN BTV FOR
THE OVRNGHT PERIOD. RISK OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS MPV/SLK IN FOG AFT 06Z.
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NRN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN OCNL MVFR
CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS AREA
WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 300 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG A SFC
BNDRY FROM W-CTRL QUEBEC TO WATERTOWN NY. HOWEVER...AS THESE STORMS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THEY ARE
DETERIORATING RAPIDLY. OUTFLOW BDRYS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE FURTHER
CONVECTION AS THE AIR HAS BEEN "WORKED OVER" BY EARLIER STORMS.
EXPECT AN END TO CONV AT LEAST FOR A WHILE AHEAD OF THE NEXT 5H
VORT. NEXT ROUND OF CONV WL BEGIN BY LATE AFT/EARLY EVENING
BEGINNING IN SLV AND SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO THE CPV AND NORTHERN VT. AS PER LATEST VIS SAT PICS...MOST OF
THE FA EAST OF A LINE FROM CMCW TO KSLK HAS CLEARED OUT THRU THIS
MORNING UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S ACRS MUCH OF THAT AREA. DWPTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY A COLD FRNT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST AND WL AGAIN
BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WL RETURN CALM
WX TO THE AREA AS A MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS BOTH DAYS ARE AROUND 15C...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COMPLEX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND APPROACHING 5H VORT ACRS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS COMBINED WITH A COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN WL MAKE THE TIMING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION VERY DIFFICULT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A STRONG 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN FA
BY 00Z. FEEL CONVECTION WL RE-DEVELOP ALONG SFC BOUNDARY ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND CENTRAL LK ONTARIO BY 21Z TODAY...AND SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST INTO THE SLV BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
AMOUNT OF LLVL INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING THAT WL BE
AVAILABLE THIS EVENING ACRS OUR WESTERN FA. THIS MAY BE LIMITED DUE
TO CLOUDS/PRECIP CRNTLY HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 70S. GIVEN MODEL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND FCSTED SHEAR FEEL BEST CHC FOR SVR
CONVECTION WL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF CHIPPEWA BAY TO SLK TO BTV LINE
THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE
NORTHERN CPV...DUE TO SW DOWNSLOPING FLW AND LIMITED SFC
INSTABILITY. THE LATEST 15Z RUC AND 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS 2500
J/KG...LIS AROUND -5...AND TTS APPROACHING 50 ACRS THE SLV AT 00Z
THURS. THIS COMBINED WITH A GOOD LLVL THETA E AXIS AND APPROACHING
LIFT FROM 5H VORT WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS OUR NORTHERN
FA. ALSO...GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR OF 35 KNTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55 KNTS
WL MENTION ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NORTHERN ZNS FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SVR WX
WL BE FROM THE SLV TO NORTHERN CPV THRU 06Z. ALSO...THE HIGHEST POPS
WL BE ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS WITH SLIGHT POPS OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES.

ALSO...GIVEN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
DACKS WL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BOUNDARY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF RW/TRW.
LAPS SHOWS AXIS OF 1500 J/KG ACRS CPV TO SLK WITH SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT NOTED PER LATEST SATL TRENDS. FEEL SOME SCT ACTIVITY WL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

THURSDAY...
VERY DIFFICULT TO FCST WHERE LLVL BOUNDARIES WL BE FROM LEFTOVER
CONVECTION AND WHERE COLD FRNT WL BE. HOWEVER...FEEL THE COMBINATION
OF SFC FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN FA BY 12Z AND 5H VORT APPROACHING FA
BY 18Z MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP. FEEL BEST LLVL
INSTABILITY WL BE ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE SFC HEATING
WL BE THE BEST. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH A
STRONG LLVL/MID LVL THETA E AXIS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS SOUTH WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F.

FRIDAY...ETA AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE DAY MAY BEGIN
WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS A 5H VORT EXITS THE FA...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY NOON AS A WEAK MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. 85H TEMPS
AROUND 15C WL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
SHOULD ALSO BE CLEAR AND CALM AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

SATURDAY WL BE MUCH LIKE FRIDAY WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR 17C...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS NEAR 90F. WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT A 5H VORT WL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA SATURDAY EVENING. 85H RH
OVER 70 PCT ALONG WITH OMEGA FIELDS WL BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING NEAR KMSS MOVING EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN FA
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY ATTM WITH
PROGGED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -2C.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WILL OPT TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST
AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE REMNANTS OF DENNIS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
AREA DURING SAT NT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH CHC OF
SHRAS/TSRAS DURING PERIOD...THOUGH EMPHASIS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS SUN/MON. WILL THEN OPT FOR PC
AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES BY LATER TUE INTO WED WITH THREAT OF PRECIP
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND HUMID MID SUMMER AIRMASS TO PERSIST
ACROSS FA ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S...AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ACROSS VT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS
SLV DURING SAME TIME FRAME. SEMI-STATIONARY WEAK BNDRY THAT PRODUCED
SCT CONVECTION ACROSS N NY YESTERDAY ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS ACROSS
THIS AREA AGAIN TODAY. CELLS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AROUND 35 MPH...WITH
TOPS TO 45 KFT AS OBSERVED OFF AREA RADARS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY
EVENING HOURS AS BNDRY LOSES IDENTITY AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY VFR CONDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG NRN BORDER
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE...WILL OMIT FOR NOW. BY THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS AREA WIT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHRAS/TSRAS EXPECTED. WILL THUS OFFER MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDS AT ALL
SITES FROM MID MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$








FXUS61 KBTV 140203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO KEEP IN MENTION
OF SHWRS/THNDSTRMS FOR ST LWR VLY FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WHILE THERE
ARE A FEW SHWRS/THNDSTRMS IN ST LWR VLY ATTM...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS AN MCS OVER ERN ONTARIO WHICH IS MOVG SLOWLY
SEWRD. IT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER PAST HR AS IT MOVES TOWARDS A
SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS CLOSE
ATTENTION. WILL LEAVE IN ENHANCED WORDING FOR THNDSTRMS FOR THE
OVRNGHT FOR ST LWR VLY AND ADRNDKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACRS FORECAST AREA THRU 06Z AND IN BTV FOR
THE OVRNGHT PERIOD. RISK OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS MPV/SLK IN FOG AFT 06Z.
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NRN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN OCNL MVFR
CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS AREA
WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 300 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG A SFC
BNDRY FROM W-CTRL QUEBEC TO WATERTOWN NY. HOWEVER...AS THESE STORMS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THEY ARE
DETERIORATING RAPIDLY. OUTFLOW BDRYS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE FURTHER
CONVECTION AS THE AIR HAS BEEN "WORKED OVER" BY EARLIER STORMS.
EXPECT AN END TO CONV AT LEAST FOR A WHILE AHEAD OF THE NEXT 5H
VORT. NEXT ROUND OF CONV WL BEGIN BY LATE AFT/EARLY EVENING
BEGINNING IN SLV AND SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO THE CPV AND NORTHERN VT. AS PER LATEST VIS SAT PICS...MOST OF
THE FA EAST OF A LINE FROM CMCW TO KSLK HAS CLEARED OUT THRU THIS
MORNING UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S ACRS MUCH OF THAT AREA. DWPTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY A COLD FRNT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST AND WL AGAIN
BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WL RETURN CALM
WX TO THE AREA AS A MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS BOTH DAYS ARE AROUND 15C...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COMPLEX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND APPROACHING 5H VORT ACRS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS COMBINED WITH A COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN WL MAKE THE TIMING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION VERY DIFFICULT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A STRONG 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN FA
BY 00Z. FEEL CONVECTION WL RE-DEVELOP ALONG SFC BOUNDARY ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND CENTRAL LK ONTARIO BY 21Z TODAY...AND SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST INTO THE SLV BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
AMOUNT OF LLVL INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING THAT WL BE
AVAILABLE THIS EVENING ACRS OUR WESTERN FA. THIS MAY BE LIMITED DUE
TO CLOUDS/PRECIP CRNTLY HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 70S. GIVEN MODEL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND FCSTED SHEAR FEEL BEST CHC FOR SVR
CONVECTION WL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF CHIPPEWA BAY TO SLK TO BTV LINE
THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE
NORTHERN CPV...DUE TO SW DOWNSLOPING FLW AND LIMITED SFC
INSTABILITY. THE LATEST 15Z RUC AND 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS 2500
J/KG...LIS AROUND -5...AND TTS APPROACHING 50 ACRS THE SLV AT 00Z
THURS. THIS COMBINED WITH A GOOD LLVL THETA E AXIS AND APPROACHING
LIFT FROM 5H VORT WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS OUR NORTHERN
FA. ALSO...GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR OF 35 KNTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55 KNTS
WL MENTION ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NORTHERN ZNS FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SVR WX
WL BE FROM THE SLV TO NORTHERN CPV THRU 06Z. ALSO...THE HIGHEST POPS
WL BE ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS WITH SLIGHT POPS OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES.

ALSO...GIVEN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
DACKS WL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BOUNDARY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF RW/TRW.
LAPS SHOWS AXIS OF 1500 J/KG ACRS CPV TO SLK WITH SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT NOTED PER LATEST SATL TRENDS. FEEL SOME SCT ACTIVITY WL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

THURSDAY...
VERY DIFFICULT TO FCST WHERE LLVL BOUNDARIES WL BE FROM LEFTOVER
CONVECTION AND WHERE COLD FRNT WL BE. HOWEVER...FEEL THE COMBINATION
OF SFC FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN FA BY 12Z AND 5H VORT APPROACHING FA
BY 18Z MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP. FEEL BEST LLVL
INSTABILITY WL BE ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE SFC HEATING
WL BE THE BEST. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH A
STRONG LLVL/MID LVL THETA E AXIS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS SOUTH WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F.

FRIDAY...ETA AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE DAY MAY BEGIN
WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS A 5H VORT EXITS THE FA...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY NOON AS A WEAK MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. 85H TEMPS
AROUND 15C WL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
SHOULD ALSO BE CLEAR AND CALM AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

SATURDAY WL BE MUCH LIKE FRIDAY WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR 17C...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS NEAR 90F. WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT A 5H VORT WL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA SATURDAY EVENING. 85H RH
OVER 70 PCT ALONG WITH OMEGA FIELDS WL BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING NEAR KMSS MOVING EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN FA
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY ATTM WITH
PROGGED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -2C.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WILL OPT TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST
AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE REMNANTS OF DENNIS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
AREA DURING SAT NT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH CHC OF
SHRAS/TSRAS DURING PERIOD...THOUGH EMPHASIS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS SUN/MON. WILL THEN OPT FOR PC
AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES BY LATER TUE INTO WED WITH THREAT OF PRECIP
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND HUMID MID SUMMER AIRMASS TO PERSIST
ACROSS FA ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S...AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ACROSS VT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS
SLV DURING SAME TIME FRAME. SEMI-STATIONARY WEAK BNDRY THAT PRODUCED
SCT CONVECTION ACROSS N NY YESTERDAY ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS ACROSS
THIS AREA AGAIN TODAY. CELLS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AROUND 35 MPH...WITH
TOPS TO 45 KFT AS OBSERVED OFF AREA RADARS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY
EVENING HOURS AS BNDRY LOSES IDENTITY AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY VFR CONDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG NRN BORDER
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE...WILL OMIT FOR NOW. BY THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS AREA WIT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHRAS/TSRAS EXPECTED. WILL THUS OFFER MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDS AT ALL
SITES FROM MID MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$







FXUS61 KBTV 131858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

FCST CHALLENGE IS DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG A SFC
BNDRY FROM W-CTRL QUEBEC TO WATERTOWN NY. HOWEVER...AS THESE STORMS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THEY ARE
DETERIORATING RAPIDLY. OUTFLOW BDRYS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE FURTHER
CONVECTION AS THE AIR HAS BEEN "WORKED OVER" BY EARLIER STORMS.
EXPECT AN END TO CONV AT LEAST FOR A WHILE AHEAD OF THE NEXT 5H
VORT. NEXT ROUND OF CONV WL BEGIN BY LATE AFT/EARLY EVENING
BEGINNING IN SLV AND SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO THE CPV AND NORTHERN VT. AS PER LATEST VIS SAT PICS...MOST OF
THE FA EAST OF A LINE FROM CMCW TO KSLK HAS CLEARED OUT THRU THIS
MORNING UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S ACRS MUCH OF THAT AREA. DWPTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY A COLD FRNT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST AND WL AGAIN
BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WL RETURN CALM
WX TO THE AREA AS A MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS BOTH DAYS ARE AROUND 15C...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COMPLEX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND APPROACHING 5H VORT ACRS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS COMBINED WITH A COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN WL MAKE THE TIMING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION VERY DIFFICULT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A STRONG 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN FA
BY 00Z. FEEL CONVECTION WL RE-DEVELOP ALONG SFC BOUNDARY ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND CENTRAL LK ONTARIO BY 21Z TODAY...AND SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST INTO THE SLV BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
AMOUNT OF LLVL INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING THAT WL BE
AVAILABLE THIS EVENING ACRS OUR WESTERN FA. THIS MAY BE LIMITED DUE
TO CLOUDS/PRECIP CRNTLY HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 70S. GIVEN MODEL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND FCSTED SHEAR FEEL BEST CHC FOR SVR
CONVECTION WL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF CHIPPEWA BAY TO SLK TO BTV LINE
THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE
NORTHERN CPV...DUE TO SW DOWNSLOPING FLW AND LIMITED SFC
INSTABILITY. THE LATEST 15Z RUC AND 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS 2500
J/KG...LIS AROUND -5...AND TTS APPROACHING 50 ACRS THE SLV AT 00Z
THURS. THIS COMBINED WITH A GOOD LLVL THETA E AXIS AND APPROACHING
LIFT FROM 5H VORT WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS OUR NORTHERN
FA. ALSO...GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR OF 35 KNTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55 KNTS
WL MENTION ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NORTHERN ZNS FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SVR WX
WL BE FROM THE SLV TO NORTHERN CPV THRU 06Z. ALSO...THE HIGHEST POPS
WL BE ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS WITH SLIGHT POPS OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES.

ALSO...GIVEN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
DACKS WL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BOUNDARY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF RW/TRW.
LAPS SHOWS AXIS OF 1500 J/KG ACRS CPV TO SLK WITH SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT NOTED PER LATEST SATL TRENDS. FEEL SOME SCT ACTIVITY WL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

THURSDAY...
VERY DIFFICULT TO FCST WHERE LLVL BOUNDARIES WL BE FROM LEFTOVER
CONVECTION AND WHERE COLD FRNT WL BE. HOWEVER...FEEL THE COMBINATION
OF SFC FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN FA BY 12Z AND 5H VORT APPROACHING FA
BY 18Z MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP. FEEL BEST LLVL
INSTABILITY WL BE ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE SFC HEATING
WL BE THE BEST. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH A
STRONG LLVL/MID LVL THETA E AXIS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS SOUTH WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F.

FRIDAY...ETA AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE DAY MAY BEGIN
WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS A 5H VORT EXITS THE FA...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY NOON AS A WEAK MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN. 85H TEMPS
AROUND 15C WL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
SHOULD ALSO BE CLEAR AND CALM AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

SATURDAY WL BE MUCH LIKE FRIDAY WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR 17C...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS NEAR 90F. WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT A 5H VORT WL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA SATURDAY EVENING. 85H RH
OVER 70 PCT ALONG WITH OMEGA FIELDS WL BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING NEAR KMSS MOVING EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN FA
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY ATTM WITH
PROGGED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -2C.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WILL OPT TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST
AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE REMNANTS OF DENNIS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
AREA DURING SAT NT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH CHC OF
SHRAS/TSRAS DURING PERIOD...THOUGH EMPHASIS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS SUN/MON. WILL THEN OPT FOR PC
AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES BY LATER TUE INTO WED WITH THREAT OF PRECIP
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND HUMID MID SUMMER AIRMASS TO PERSIST
ACROSS FA ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S...AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ACROSS VT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS
SLV DURING SAME TIME FRAME. SEMI-STATIONARY WEAK BNDRY THAT PRODUCED
SCT CONVECTION ACROSS N NY YESTERDAY ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS ACROSS
THIS AREA AGAIN TODAY. CELLS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AROUND 35 MPH...WITH
TOPS TO 45 KFT AS OBSERVED OFF AREA RADARS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY
EVENING HOURS AS BNDRY LOSES IDENTITY AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY VFR CONDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG NRN BORDER
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE...WILL OMIT FOR NOW. BY THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS AREA WIT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHRAS/TSRAS EXPECTED. WILL THUS OFFER MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDS AT ALL
SITES FROM MID MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER/CARPENTIER
SHORT TERM...TABER/CARPENTIER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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